Markets tumbled on Friday, with the S&P losing 1.4%, with Geopolitical tensions heating up along with rate cut odds being pushed back into late summer. Asia stocks closed mixed overnight while Europe indexes are in the green this morning. U.S. futures are pointing to a higher open, the Dollar and Oil are higher while Yields and Gold are lower.
And here is my rant from Friday if you missed: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/jb-afternoon-rant-april-12th-2024/
It was a nasty session on Friday, with markets opening lower, then selling off for almost the rest of the day without many bounces. The SPY broke that $512.50 handle and then traded into the $509s before bouncing a bit to close at $510.85. The concern here now would be the 50dma, which is looming at $508.80, and then that key $504.50. It is now back to back red weeks for the S&P. Stocks will need to find some footing here soon or I fear a bigger pull is coming. The VIX pretty much told the tale on Friday. It was rallying all morning despite the S&P not near the lows from Wednesday. Who knows if it was folks preparing for WW3 over the weekend, but either way it was concerning and will be watching. Speaking of WW3, Iran has been telegraphing this action on Israel all week. It was no surprise. It was very similar to Iran's response when the US killed the leader of their national guard. They sent missiles to US bases in Iraq but no casualties and limited damage. If you were reading FinTwit over the weekend you would think futures would be limit down and Gold would be $3k. Instead futures are higher and seems back to business. Said it in the chatroom after the drones were sent:
At the end of the day, thankful no lives are lost.
Lastly, Retail sales numbers came in higher than expected this morning. Just more signs the economy is doing well:
Earnings season picks up this week with names like NFLX, ISRG, $JNJ , MS, BAC and more reporting. Here are the implied moves:
None of the names are calling my name though NFLX looks interesting. If they report a strong Q likely just holds $620s or so. Any miss and could be low $500s - so could be a nice lotto. Will be watching:
DELL closed down over 11% last week and red in 4 of the 5 sessions. Still looking to add more strikes, likely May $145s if it can reclaim $120 today:
Friday was a rough session for CAVA, closing off 4%. Still love the name and think $70+ soon. This morning Barclays initiated with an equal-rate rating and $58 PT. Stock is at $63.75? If markets find footing this week CAVA should be back into the high $60s:
SE also closed off nearly 4% on Friday. Still holding freebie calls but may look for some further out strikes today:
A rough 2 session for IIPR, just as it looked ready to start breaking out. My April calls expire this week, may start looking for May strikes:
Still love CGC and ACB. ACB closed pretty much flat last week and is outperforming CGC as of late. Will just keep holding my calls:
AVAV could finally be a runner today after the weekends Drone attack. Tight bollies as well. Still eyeing some calls for a move over $160:
And of course, Still looking to add some May strikes on CDLX to encompass earnings:
And here is what I am watching today: NFLX, AVAV, CDLX, IIPR, DELL, AVGO, MDB, ISRG, NOW, TZA, ,SPOT, EW, VKTX, TERN, SNOW, LRCX, GPCR, NFLX, PYPL, RDDT, IWM, and ADBE
Let's have a great day!
-JB