Futures are pointing to a red open with S&P futures down .50% as I write this. Asia stocks fell overnight while Europe indexes are in the red. The US dollar and Gold are lower while Yields and Oil are higher.
And here are the implied moves for earnings this week: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/some-implied-moves-for-earnings-next-weekapr-13th-apr-17th-70-companies-reporting/
Stocks rallied again last week, with the S&P adding 3.6% and almost making it 7 straight sessions of gains on Friday by closing off .07%. Hopes of a peaceful outcome in the Middle East and lower oil prices provided the catalyst. But sure enough, this weekend the peace talks between the US and Iran fell apart, and Trump said the US will now blockade Iranian ports.
The news hit before futures opened so was tough to figure out where they would open at 6pm on Sunday. I actually thought maybe down 2%... instead it was only 1% and futures have pared more losses. All that will change if there is an escalation but the market is saying it doesn't think so.
So now we are almost back to square one, where we are a headline away from the market swinging up or down 1% and VIX over 20. Hopefully that changes soon.
It is a big week for markets with the Q1 earnings season kicking off including NFLX earnings Thursday. We also get PPI data tomorrow. I would love to be optimistic but until this Middle-east situation is fixed, makes it hard to hold upside positions. That $676 area continues to be key support/resistance and then the 50dma at $672.99:
And Yields, going the wrong way. They worry me the most:
What a week got GLW. Of course I was sitting pretty with the $165 calls but didn't want to hold too much risk heading into the ultimatum from Trump. Sure enough GLW rallied 15% last week and my $165s ran from .39 to $8+. And I added those $190s and they ran from .24 to over $1.50. Either way GLW has been a cash cow. Will continue to look for more opportunities to trade it for upside. $248 is the target:
KODK closed down 1.5% on Friday but was up over 7% in the week and then was one of the top headlines on CNBC all weekend with this
Sometimes I actually like the rallies that happen with no news. My worry now is this becomes some sell the news event. I hope not. Either way, will look to close some of my May calls out to cover costs when I get the chance. And will need a squeeze for the April strikes... you never know:
I added some AMZN spec calls on Friday. I can't remember the last time I traded AMZN. Think it can do what GOOGL did in the summer, run on the possibility that it can excel outside the core biz... With the gap down the calls will be solidly on the red. If it fails to reverse today I may just salvage the position and revisit:
A few months back I was doing DD to find other optic names like LITE and AAOI(and GLW). ALMU was one of them but someone had some short piece on them and the stock kept selling so I stayed away. Sure enough this morning they announced a $4mil contract with the US Gov't in partnership with $TSEM. Not sure it is a 100% validation of their product/tech but certainly a positive... and with this Optics environment, could be a FOMO trade. It also sports a 23% short interest so may look for some lottos. Could see $15+ quick:
Still eyeing calls on RBLX and RDDT. RBLX actually looked promising on Friday, holding up despite the software names getting smoked again. $60 calls look inexpensive... but then again, they have for the past 4 weeks:
And RDDT:
And LMND ready for that bounce 2.0? I almost grabbed some calls Friday but the stock just kept melting:
And if the market comes under serious pressure... ie. SPY under $670, will be using SQQQ calls and APP,V, MA puts as hedges.
And here is what I am watching today: ALMU, GLW, AAOI, LMND. RDDT, RBLX, SHOP, RDDT, RBLX, GLW, KODK, CRBP, ANET, AVGO, INTU, ADBE, APP, WING, LRCX , ASML,ORCL, U, TTD, GLW, AAOI, TSLA, ALMU, VKTX, RH, ROKU, RBLX, SEDG, KODK, NKLR, SEDG, AAOI, DUOL, GLW, ALGN, ISRG, LMND, CF, NTR, IPI. SERV, SHOP, ANET, HTFL, ROKU, POOL. V, MA, ZM, WING, SHOP, SQQQ, MRNA, DUST, FLWS, COCO, COIN, KODK, and SQQQ.
Let's have a great day!
-JB