Futures are pointing to a red start to the week, with the S&P set to open .50% lower as I write this. Asia markets closed higher overnight, while Europe indexes are closed for Easter. The Dollar and Oil are higher while Yields and Gold are lower.
And this is what UPB is reading this morning: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/morning-reads-234/
The S&P closed down .05% last week, putting an end to a 3 week winning streak. The March jobs report came out on Friday with markets closed and it was a tad stronger than expected. Futures creeped higher after the data but have reversed course this morning. It is a big week for markets with CPI data and the Fed minutes on Wednesday, PPI data on Thursday, and the kick-off of the Q1 earnings season on Friday along with March retail sales numbers. JPM, WFC, and C will report and will likely give some clues on how bad the Silicon Bank fiasco rattled the banking system and if it is over or there is more damage on the way. You already have headlines out there setting the stage:
Going to be a volatile week, especially starting Wednesday. Would want to see the SPY hold that $400 handle on any weakness. Maybe some chop here the next few days and hopefully the SPY can go on and test that $415:
I added some lotto ROKU calls on Thursday after news came out that the Ad supported version of Disney+ was available on ROKU. I was able to flip the calls for 100% after a nice afternoon surge. There is a golden-cross setting up, where the 50dma moves above the 200dma, and usually portends more upside. May look to add some weekly calls and/or monthly strikes to play for a move over $70 if the market finds any footing today:
Gold was under pressure on Friday. It looked like a retest of the $2000 level was coming so I went and added some inexpensive lotto puts. Gold then found a bid, tested $2030 before closing at $2026. It is trading around $2015 this morning. Gold closed up over 10% or $200 in March. Think a pullback is coming , so may look to add some inexpensive GLD puts on a break under $2010 for a move to $1960 or so:
INMD closed back over its 200dma on Friday. One of these sessions it breaks that the 50dma and rallies over $35:
CDLX recovered most of Thursday's losses, closing up over 23%. Will be interesting to see if it can close over $6 today and finally find some stability. Once it does, think $7+ comes:
There are earnings this week, here are the implied moves:
UNH reports earnings Friday. Think they will report a strong quarter and should help CI as a sympathy play. Still holding CI freebie calls and will likely hold them into Friday as long as it holds $260 or so... and chart is still pinching:
BLK also reports earnings Friday. Think they will also report a strong Q and the stock will head back over $700. Premiums are expensive so will be patient and may actually just look trade it post earnings on Friday:
Loop Capital upgraded POOL on Thursday and is now upgrading SITE today. Two seasonal plays. I like them both, especially with them both being well off their highs. Will be watching for potential entries today:
And lastly, YEXT took it on the chin last week, closing in the red everyday. Not going to add anything yet, and would like to see it hold the 50dma today and this week:
Going to be a volatile week so certainly not going to be overly aggressive. If markets find pressure I may look at some FAZ calls as a hedge.
And this is what I am watching today: SITE, POOL. BLK, ROKU, FAZ, SMG, MASI, EXAS, CMG, ULTA, NFLX, YOU, SRS, SPOT, BLK, SQ, MDGL, SAGE, ICPT, DKNG, U, TWLO, TRIP, RBLX, SPOT, AYX, and GLD.
Let's have a great day!
-JB