Ace In The Hole?

This  Friday at 11 A.M est, Janet Yellen speaks.  There is a very good chance it will move the market.


U.S. Fed Chair Janet Yellen speaks at the Kansas City Fed’s annual Monetary Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s July meeting showed officials were split on whether an increase was needed soon. 09:00 local time (11:00 EDT)

The market already knows the speech will likely address the timing of the next .25% uptick of the FED Funds rate.   Assuming nothing kills this market between now and then, Yellen will not tip the FED's hand, only stating what her and so many others behind her have stated previously the last 8 years and have helped launched asset prices to 1 million year highs.  They will raise interest rates when they feel the time is right.  Not a minute before or after.

'The Time is Right'  since 2008 has equated to a 1/4 pt increase  every 8 years.  Keeping that in mind, the next rate hike should come sometime in the year 2023.

The action in August could be dubbed a holding pattern.

'Do me a favor kid, keep the market in check until we get back.'

The $QQQ sporting an even more deliberate holding pattern.

As the market gets more dull by the day, Jackson Hole approaches, and with it the likely sharp resolution of this consolidation.

The trend for the markets still remains higher. While the growth of debt around the world remains a concern,  as long as the cost of that debt remains cheap, the stock market will continue to climb.

The Nasdaq and S&P500 broke key resistance earlier this year and we could be witnessing the early innings of the next move higher for the market.

While the market action may be choppy on Friday, I don't think Yellen's speech will derail equity prices.  The Era of Cheap Money will remain intact.  The massive debt bubble will continue to grow.  And stock prices will resume their move to fresh record highs.


Ace in the Hole?  Yellen and the FED don't need it.  The market knows what lies ahead.  Price action continues to do the talking, and until we see that break, the trade of least resistance is for more upside.

Known to most as Uranium Pinto Beans, Jason has more than 15 years under his belt of trading stocks, options and currencies. His expertise primarily lies in chart analysis, and he has a strong eye for undervalued stock. Because he’s got the ability to identify great risk/reward trades he usually enjoys taking the path less traveled and reaping the benefits from the adventure.

He is a co-founder of Option Millionaires, and he is best known for his weekly webinars with Scott, as well as his high level training webinars and charts found in the forums.

More Posts by UPB: View All | Private Twitter Feed: Access Now! (For Diamond Members)

Leave a Reply