1. The Fed Rate Decision & Jerome Powell’s "Last Dance"
The Federal Reserve is 100% expected to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% today. However, the focus is on Jerome Powell, as this is expected to be his final meeting as Chair before his term ends on May 15.
2. Mag 7 "Super-Wednesday" Earnings
Four of the "Magnificent Seven"—Alphabet (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), and Meta (META)—report quarterly results after the closing bell today. Investors are laser-focused on whether massive AI infrastructure spending is finally translating into bottom-line growth.
3. UAE Makes Historic Exit from OPEC
In a move that has shocked energy markets, the UAE—OPEC’s third-largest producer—announced it will exit the cartel effective May 1. The move follows years of tension over production quotas and signals a major shift in GCC power.
4. Jamie Dimon Warns of Looming Bond Market Crisis
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon issued a stark warning in Oslo, stating that a "violent repricing" or bond crisis is likely if policymakers don't address the combination of rising public debt and geopolitical instability.
5. Kevin Warsh’s Confirmation Vote Today
The Senate Banking Committee is set to vote today on advancing Kevin Warsh’s nomination as the next Fed Chair. If confirmed, Warsh will inherit a "perfect storm" of challenges, including war-driven inflation and record federal debt.
6. Oil Surges to $103 on Iran War Supply Fears
Crude oil prices rose 3.4% this morning as Shell warned that supply disruptions from the ongoing Iran conflict could extend into 2027. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is also set to testify before lawmakers today regarding the war’s progress.
7. TSMC Exits Arm Stake with $231M Sale
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSM) has completely exited its position in Arm Holdings (ARM) via a share sale. The move comes as the semiconductor giant reallocates capital amidst shifting global demand.
8. Starbucks (SBUX) Gains on Sales Rebound
Starbucks shares are trading higher after the company reported a rebound in global sales and provided an optimistic guidance boost, defying broader consumer spending slowdown fears.
9. OpenAI Growth Headwinds Drag Tech Down
Reports of slowing growth at OpenAI have sent a ripple through related tech stocks. Investors are questioning if the "AI hype cycle" is hitting a plateau as the cost of scaling models continues to climb.
10. China Halts Robotaxi Approvals Following Baidu Outage
Chinese regulators have paused new permits for autonomous "robotaxis" after a mass outage of Baidu’s (BIDU) fleet caused traffic chaos. The news has cooled sentiment for the autonomous vehicle sector globally.
Mag 7 earnings: See what analysts are expecting for Alphabet (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN) and Meta (META).
GCC rift: The UAE, OPEC's third biggest producer, will exit the oil cartel following years of tensions over production quotas.
Red flag: JPMorgan's (JPM) Jamie Dimon warns of a looming bond market crisis, urging policymakers to address underlying risks.
Curtain call
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to stand pat on interest rates this afternoon, but perhaps more consequential is the fact that today's meeting will likely be Jerome Powell's last as its chair. The bigger question is whether Powell will choose to remain as a Fed governor, given his fierce defense of the central bank's independence.
Looking ahead: Powell's term as Fed chair will conclude May 15, but he could serve out his term as governor until 2028. This would be unusual as most Fed chairs in the past left completely when their terms ended. "It seems likely that he will stay on as a Fed governor, at least for a while," Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, told Seeking Alpha. Powell previously said he wouldn't leave until the Department of Justice's investigation into the Fed's renovation project was "well and truly over." The DOJ dropped its probe last week, but it hasn't so much resolved as shifted to another overseer, which could leave enough doubt in Powell's mind to stay on. Meanwhile, the Senate Banking Committee will vote today on advancing Kevin Warsh's nomination as Fed chair to the full Senate for final confirmation.
Another pause: Traders are pricing in a 100% probability of the Fed maintaining the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Even more telling, the market is pricing in no rate change for the rest of the year, compared with the start of 2026, when traders were pricing in two 25 basis-point rate cuts. As always, traders, economists, and other Fed watchers will be focused on any forward guidance the FOMC may provide in its statement. In the minutes for the March meeting, there was some debate on whether its statement should include language that the next rate move could be either a cut or a hike. One reason to keep rates unchanged is the uncertainty over how the Iran war will affect inflation. Another major reason is the upcoming succession. "You don't want to rock the boat before you're handing the Fed over to the new chair," Navy Federal's Long said.
SA commentary: The argument in favor of the Fed's pause is that the war's inflationary effects are unclear, according to SA analyst TMC Research. "Although most forecasters expect higher inflation in the near term, economists are debating how long the run-up in pricing pressure will last, and how forcefully the Fed should react, if at all," they said. "The risk is that the central bank repeats the mistake of responding too slowly to the 2021-2022 inflation spike." As for Powell's successor, SA analyst James Picerno said Warsh is set to face a perfect storm of challenges - fallout from the Iran war, tariff impacts and massive federal debt. "Given the war‑driven shifts in the inflation backdrop, cutting rates will be a difficult case for Warsh to make to his fellow policymakers. That may set up a new conflict with Trump, who has been publicly pushing for rate cuts," he added.
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What else is happening...
Trump tells Iran to 'get smart soon' as he eyes extending blockade.
OpenAI's (OPENAI) growth headwinds drag related stocks lower.
Taiwan Semi (TSM) exits Arm (ARM) with $231M share sale.
Seagate (STX) surges as earnings, outlook beat estimates.
Starbucks (SBUX) gains on sales rebound, guidance boost.
Brown-Forman (BF.B), Pernod Ricard (PDRDF) call off merger.
Disney (DIS) slips amid FCC scrutiny, Jimmy Kimmel backlash.
China halts robotaxi approvals after Baidu (BIDU) mass outage.
Oil rally: TotalEnergies (TTE) to return more cash to shareholders.
Shell (SHEL) warns crude supply disruption could drag into 2027.
Today's Markets
In Asia, Japan closed. Hong Kong +1.7%. China +0.7%. India +0.8%.
In Europe, at midday, London -0.6%. Paris -0.5%. Frankfurt -0.1%.
Futures at 6:30, Dow +0.1%. S&P +0.1%. Nasdaq +0.4%. Crude +3.4% to $103.28. Gold -0.6% to $4,582.80. Bitcoin +1.7% to $77,832.
Ten-year Treasury Yield unchan