- China’s Electrostate Is Poised to Win From War in the Middle East
- How Iran, Suffering Under Sanctions, Diversified Its Economy
- White House Fields Warnings About Iran War’s Economic Hit
- Oil Rallies as US Vow to Blockade Iran Heightens Supply Risks
- Oil Prices Surge Above $100 After Peace Talks Fail and Trump Threatens Blockade
- The Hormuz Blockade Is a Throwdown the US Can’t Win
- It’s the Worst Time to Be an American Ally
- The World’s Anti-Recession Guardrails Are Weaker Than Ever
- In Economic War, Chokepoints Beat Tariffs
- The Economy Is Growing, Jobs Aren’t. Why That Might Be OK.
- Restaurants Are Finding It Harder Than Ever to Hire Someone to Wash the Dishes
- Why More College Graduates Are Stuck in Jobs That Don’t Require Degrees
- Anxious Parents Are Spending Upwards of $50,000 to Land Their Kid a Job
- Friday’s CPI Report Was a Lot of Noise, Not Much Signal
- With Private Credit We See the Credit Cycle Hasn’t Been Repealed
- Goldman Sachs Posts Higher Profit on Strength in Dealmaking, Equities Trading
- Kalshi Is Half Right About Prediction Markets and Gambling
- The ‘Annoyance Economy’ Is More Than Just Annoying
- The Economist Is Putting Names (and Faces) to Its Magazine
- For a Housing Fix, Look to the Laboratories We Know As States
- Starting With Prices, Let’s Make Healthcare a Market Again
- Mutually Automated Destruction: The Escalating Global A.I. Arms Race
- Musk Finds a Partner in Intel for His Huge Chipmaking Dream
- Philippines Orders Meta to Tighten Measures Against ‘Panic-Inducing’ Fake News
- Meta Expected to Unseat Google as World’s Largest Digital-Ad Player
- Amazon’s Car Sales Bet Is Getting Bigger With New Brands and More Cities
- Palo Alto Networks Founder Agrees to Buy California Bank for AI Revamp
- GFL Environmental to Buy Secure Waste Infrastructure
- Ackman’s $64 Billion Universal Bet Hinges on Power Broker Bollore
- McDonald’s to Add Energy Drinks, Crafted Sodas to Menus
Eye on energy: Oil surges past $100 as the U.S. imposes an Iran blockade, though Trump says gas prices could stay high through November.
Landslide win: There's a new leader in Hungary after 16 years, who has promised to restore ties with the EU.
Earnings season: Goldman Sachs (GS) kicks off the festivities, with trading desks poised for a $40B quarter.
Baby boom to bust
The U.S. fertility rate has dropped to the lowest level ever recorded, according to fresh data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. About 3.6M babies were born in the U.S. in 2025, translating into 53 births for every 1,000 women of reproductive age. That's nearly 20% lower than it was two decades ago, with half of all American women now reaching the age of 30 without becoming mothers.
Times have changed: It wasn't that long ago that demographers were worried about overpopulation and economic scarcity. In fact, that seemed to be the prevailing worldview for decades and only inverted over the last several years. Many women are now waiting longer for children, having less than the replacement rate, or choosing not to have kids at all. If the clampdown on immigration also continues, the total U.S. population is expected to peak around 2029 or 2030, and begin a permanent decline thereafter.
That'll have many profound effects, with few solutions in store to reverse the decline. Since the baby boom after World War II, America has primarily lived in a youth culture that encouraged risk-taking and new businesses that built the economy. It's now sharply pivoting toward a geriatric culture, with the so-called "gray economy" and "boomer economy." An affordability crisis is only compounding the problems for the young, ensuring this demographic contraction will have real and enduring consequences.
Outlook: Labor shortages are already surfacing in industries like healthcare and construction, while automation and robotics represent as much of an employment impediment as they do a boon. A smaller pool of young workers is also causing concern over the financial health of Social Security's trust fund, and whether it will be sustainable to provide for the needs of the next generation. Serious long-term effects have yet to be realized, but if the demographics follow the current trajectory, it can cause sustained economic stagnation, similar to what Japan has experienced over the past two decades. Take the WSB survey.
Here's the latest Seeking Alpha analysis
PFFA: Bargain Hunting Monthly Dividends With 10% Yield
Palantir: This Could End Badly
Microsoft: The Selloff Looks Better Than The Story
S&P 500: Don't Buy The Dip When Macroeconomic Conditions Are Worsening
Powell And Bessent Summon Bank CEOs For An 'Urgent' Meeting - What's Going On
What else is happening...
Airlines cut global schedules as Iran oil shock ripples into May.
McDonald's (MCD) taps into growing demand for energy drinks.
AI weapons race: U.S., China and Russia compete for military edge.
Meta (META) builds AI version of Mark Zuckerberg for employees.
Apple (AAPL) is reportedly testing four designs for its AI glasses.
As prediction markets surge, Robinhood excludes some event contracts.
Best quarter in five years fuels hopes for a Hollywood comeback.
OpenAI (OPENAI) CEO Sam Altman's home hit with Molotov cocktail.
Gulf allies rush to rebuild air defenses after Iran strikes expose gaps.
Oil shock rekindles 1970s fears, but today's economy is better prepared.
Today's Markets
In Asia, Japan -0.7%. Hong Kong -0.9%. China +0.1%. India -0.9%.
In Europe, at midday, London -0.3%. Paris -0.9%. Frankfurt -1.2%.
Futures at 6:30, Dow -0.5%. S&P -0.6%. Nasdaq -0.7%. Crude +8.3% to $104.57. Gold -1.2% to $4,730.90. Bitcoin -1.1% to $70,813.
Ten-year Treasury Yield unchanged at 4.33%.