Markets tumbled for the 5th week in a row, losing 2.12%, with 1.67% of that coming on Friday. Asia stocks tumbled overnight while Europe indexes are mixed this morning. U.S. futures are pointing to a higher open, Yields are lower while the Dollar, Oil, and Gold are all higher.
And here is the last rant if you missed: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/afternoon-rant-3-27-26/
What a start to 2026. The first quarter comes to an end tomorrow and, pending a 6.96% rally, the S&P will be solidly in the red. This year we have the extraction of the Venezuela president, threats to take over Greenland, the SaaS apocalypse, the AI Bubble, and now the war in Iran. You could also probably sprinkle in a potential employment crisis with Block announcing a 40% headset reduction being just one of the examples. Wrap it all together and you have yourself 3 months of a headline driven environment. The war in Iran is the wild card. I don't think much else will matter if the situation in the middle-east is not resolved in the coming weeks. The longer it goes, the higher oil goes. The higher Yields go. The higher inflation goes. And the lower the market goes. Earnings won't matter. Revenues won't matter. Economic data won't matter.
After that cabinet meeting on Thursday with POTUS and the leadership team, my glass half-full mentality took a turn. I am more skewed for downside in the coming weeks until this Iran situation is resolved. Of course there is a basket of names I am watching for bounces when this does get resolved like the RBLX, RDDT, LMND, GLW, SEDG, ENPH and others. And not saying I won't look to play those names for upside. Just saying if it is for upside, it will be very short dated strikes with quick exits. Which is pretty much how I have been trading lately anyway.
Outside of what is going on in the Middle East, this week we get the March jobs report and the end of the 1st Q. Powell will be on a moderated discussion at Harvard at 10:30am today.
The SPY sold down to levels not seen since September. That $628 looks like it could be key support if we get some type of reversal today. Also of note, the SPY is pinching. Not something you normally see on an index. Means we could get some nasty bounce soon... though hard to fathom that without some resolution in the Middle East:
And Yields:
And market breadth:
KODK! Go figure, on a day that saw the S&P drop over 1.6%, KODK decided to squeeze. The stock was melting higher into the noon hour and then it was like someone hit a button and the buyers came in, sending the stock to $10 by 1pm:
I used the move to close some of my April calls out for 200% and then over 300% and held the rest. I was actually thinking of adding later dated strikes but Friday was the type of day for caution. The stock traded off its highs but still finished up over 6%. There was no news or catalyst for the spike. Think this is more of the stock being revalued after its last earnings that saw the company post beats on revenues and signs its turnaround is taking hold. If it shows strength again today I may look to add some further out strikes for a move to $13+ in the coming weeks:
I added some V puts with the stock finally breaking its April lows. Will use as a hedge this week for any unexpected headlines ect while also using the $300 handle as a possible stop:
Think there will be plenty of short term opportunities in the current environment so will be watching some names for some weekly lottos.
GLW and AAOI certainly stand out. My GLW calls from two weeks back would have paid out nice... well if I had exited mid-week. Still think GLW can break into the $200s this year unless there is full-blown WW3:
U is a name I traded back the past that has been completely destroyed on AI fears. They raised their guidance Thursday after the bell and the the stock soared 13.5% on Friday. I normally would have been watching the name for calls but Friday was not a day for that. If it shows signs of continuation today I may look to add some calls for a move to $21+ this week:
FSLR is still on watch here. With the energy story only becoming more important have to think this catches fire soon:
And of course same with ENPH and SEDG
And lastly the dumpster fires of RDDT and RBLX will be put out and those will squeeze. It is just a matter of what the price they will be when it starts... $50 for RBLX? $115 for RDDT? Either way, RBLX had another positive analyst note out this morning and the stock is doing nothing. Will be patient:
And RDDT:
And here is what I a watching today: U, GLW, AAOI, V, RDDT, RBLX, KODK, TSLA, ALMU, VKTX, RH, RDDT, ROKU, RBLX, SEDG, KODK, NKLR, SEDG, AAOI, DUOL, GLW, ALGN, ISRG, LMND, CF, NTR, IPI. SERV, SHOP, ANET, HTFL, ROKU, POOL. V, MA, ZM, WING, SHOP, SQQQ, MRNA, DUST, FLWS, COCO, COIN, KODK, and SQQQ.
Let's have a great day!
-JB