Ever since $SNDK went on its explosive run from $51 at the start of September in 2025 to $725 in February, every new name or company associated with the AI/Capex explosion gets a little more attention from me then they normally would. $SNDK was able to go from a sub $10 bil valuation to an over $110 bil one in less than 6 months time... insane. Needless to say, GLW has caught my eye recently. Quite honestly it is not a name I have watched in years, ever since AAPL went with them for the screens in their phones more than a decade ago.
The first time $GLW caught my eye recently was the news it inked a $6 bil deal with $META. The stock rallied 16% that day and has been mostly rallying since, closing right near all-time highs on Friday at $133.46. I was wary adding any position mainly because I didn't want to chase(the stock is up 51% YTD now), the deal with META didn't seem so big relative to its market cap, and option pricing is nuts. But then the more I dug this weekend, the more I think this is setting up for some re-pricing from the market... or re-rating... or price discovery... or whatever you want to call it. In a nutshell it means the market has this priced wrong right now and will go about fixing it.
So real quick, 3 reasons why I think it continues to go bonkers in the coming weeks:
The Scarcity story
Just like $SNKD, there is a supply issue. A good issue to have and I think it is finally getting the attention it deserves. LUMN stuck a 2 year deal with GLW back in the summer of 2024 reserving 10% of GLW's fiber optic capacity. That deal is coming to an end in a few months and now you have META stepping up and announcing a $6 billion multi-year deal a few weeks ago. There are others coming. From the CEO on more deals in the works:
'They are of a similar size and scale, each of them, to the Meta agreement. So very significant ones.'
Assuming it is just 2 deals at around $6 bil each it takes a stock with a 73 forward PE and drops it well into the low 30s. Start stacking on more deals and that obviously drops. More deals = less supply = pricing power = higher margins... well you get the idea. A scarcity story.
A sidenote, one of many great reads on the Fiber demand story:
A Tailwind story
Fiber optics are not just used for data centers, but are used in servers as well... not in many yet, but the change to fiber optics is coming. Have to think folks like META trying to get ahead of the demand curve. I don't think many know this. The market is a forward looking pricing mechanism and will start to price this new addressable market. One of my Top 5 stocks for 2026 is $SITM. They have a similar opportunity replacing old quartz crystal oscillators with silicon timing chips. Check their stock price and then you see why I think this can be a nice tailwind for GLW as folks dismiss the fiber scarcity story as a one time Datacenter demand story with no staying power.
No story
That's right, $GLW is not a story. Corning? Grandma's Mac & Cheese casserole was cooked in that. They don't make cookware anymore but they parlayed grandma's Mac and Cheese into AI's Fiber story. Back when $SNDK was $100 in September I remember searching around for a bull case and there was not much to be had. A quick query in ChatGPT or other platforms returned the same jargon, over bought. I remember wondering if it was in the midst of price discovery and gave comparisons of its revenue multiple with other folks like STX, MU, and WDC.
https://x.com/OMillionaires/status/2002079504941084673
Mind you, the stock was already up 300% since September. It still had another 700% to go.
Right now I give a quick query of GLW and I get the same response from ChatGPT and others. Not overbought but also not going to explode. Social media the last few days doesn't have much chatter either. No-one saying it's going parabolic soon over $200. I like that. We shall see if that changes in a month or two. For now $GLW is not a story by any means...
Just wanted to pen my thoughts quick. I am kicking myself for not doing it during $SNDK's ascent. Maybe I would have been more aggressive on the call side. As for $GLW, I am starting to think it can run to $200+.
Will keep digging and maybe have better update later this week with fundamentals.
Happy Trading!
-JB