If I Had A Nickel For Each Time: Perhaps It’s Time To Hoard Them

The chief executive of French mining group Eramet has blamed a "violent crisis" gripping the world nickel market for what he says are huge losses at a subsidiary, and said conditions are unlikely to improve for two years.

Eramet company head Patrick Buffet said overcapacity in the global market for the metal was causing Société Le Nickel, the group's nickel subsidiary based in New Caledonia, to rack up losses of 2.5 billion French Pacific francs ($27 million USD) per month.

"The crisis in the nickel [market] is very, very violent and nobody expected it to reach such a level," Mr. Buffet told reporters in Noumea on Thursday after a board meeting of Société Le Nickel, the largest private employer on the main island of Grande Terre in the French Pacific territory.

His warning came after parent group Eramet last month posted a 5% drop in third-quarter sales to 754 million euros, mainly because of slumping global nickel prices.

Mr. Buffet said "alarming" levels of overcapacity stemmed from a steep rise in production from major consumer China, which in less than 10 years has spurred its output of the metal from zero to 450,000 metric tons per year, after importing cut-price ore from Indonesia.

High levels of mineral stocks on the London Metal Exchange and elsewhere had pushed down prices to "extraordinarily low levels" of between $6 and $6.50 per pound, well below the company's cost of production, Mr. Buffet said.

To counter its problems, Société Le Nickel will reduce spending and rein in investments and has also not ruled out job losses, Buffet declared.

Mr. Buffet also remarked that he foresaw the coming years as being "extremely painful" for the market, while there would be no improvement in conditions for two years.

New Caledonia is home to a quarter of the world's reserves of nickel, a key ingredient in the manufacture of stainless steel.

November 21st, 2013 Watch List

Make that three red days in a row, as the markets struggled to stay green into the afternoon and found some weakness after the FOMC minutes were released. Folks continue to use the infamous “Taper” as a reason for markets to go up or down.

The CPI and PPI that came out yesterday and today both continue to show a lack of inflation, the fact of which continues to help the move down in gold. I think the yellow stuff will touch $1200 at some point in the coming days and I also stick to my $1100 target on it before the year is out.

Jobless claims also came in lower than expected this morning, which has given a bid to the U.S. dollar. Futures have come off the highs as well, but they're still up nicely. As a result, I'd love the SPY to hold $178 today. Despite yesterday's gyrations the VIX remained somewhat flat, a sign that these pullbacks are nothing more than some profit taking.

SHLD did report earnings this morning and that's somewhat of a surprise, since the date was never confirmed. The numbers came in within the pre-released range. The stock is down pre-market and I'll hold my December 85 calls, which will take a beating. I won't look to get into more SHLD unless it comes down to around $50 or so.

3-D stocks continued to get pummeled and they look about ready to bounce, but trying to time that bounce can be hazardous to your account! Quite a few analysts are out defending the stocks, so maybe they'll find a bottom today. I'll be watching SSYS for an entry point.

Here are some of the analyst changes of note for today:

JCP J.C. Penney reiterated as a Sell at UBS
UBS maintains its Sell rating on J.C. Penney despite near-term momentum given cash burn and valuation concerns. The firm does not expect J.C. Penney to have positive EBITDA until 2015 and believes shares are trading at a premium to its $7 price target
GMCR Green Mountain FY14 guidance conservative, says Buckingham
After Green Mountain reported stronger than expected Q4 results, Buckingham thinks the company is poised for significant margin expansion. The firm believes the stock has minimum downside, while investor sentiment towards the name should improve as market share losses subside or reverse in FY14. It keeps a Buy rating on the shares
LOW Lowe's weakness a buying opportunity, says RW Baird
Baird said the weakness in Lowe's is a buying opportunity as their positive thesis remains intact. The firm sees demand in the sector continuing to recover, higher ticket projects gaining momentum, and expenses improving next year. Shares are Outperform rated with a $56 price target
SSYS Stratasys longer term fundamentals remain unchanged, says Piper Jaffray
After hosting investor meetings with management, Piper Jaffray says Stratasys remains very positive with respect to the strength of its business. The firm believes the company's longer term fundamentals remain unchanged and says it remains a buyer of the stock following the recent pullback. Piper keeps an Outperform rating on Stratasys with a $131 price target
VJET Voxeljet vendor financing concerns priced into shares, says Citigroup
Citigroup believes investors concerns around Voxeljet's loans to customers are priced into the stock following the recent 30% pullback. Citi thinks vendor-financed transactions are not typical for Voxeljet, as the company only financed three deals out of 52 printer sales. However, the firm expects investors to now have a heightened sensitivity to financed transactions. Citi believes Voxeljet's long-term opportunity remains on track and keeps a Neutral rating on the stock with a $55 price target
QCOM Qualcomm price target raised to $85 from $75 at Macquarie
Macquarie reiterates its Outperform rating on Qualcomm following yesterday's analyst day and believes the company's continued technology leadership and broad array of applications give the company a leading position as the industry shifts to cloud computing.
SNDK SanDisk weakness would be a buying opportunity, says Susquehanna
Susquehanna believes SanDisk could see near-term choppiness but would use any weakness as a buying opportunity as they remain positive on the longer-term earnings. The firm believes the overall SSD revenue stream can help scale operating cost which could provide another driver for EBIT margin expansion. Shares are Positive rated with a $80 price target
GM General Motors shares should be bought at current levels, says Buckingham
Buckingham expects General Motors' earnings and cash flow to be boosted by the launch of its K2XX platform. The firm thinks the stock could react favorably to the company's November sales results, as it estimates that its sales are outperforming the industry this month

CBRL reports earnings next Tuesday, so I'll be looking for a position. I may try to time a bounce in SSYS as well:

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
CBRL CALL $130.00 January 0.35 0.30
SSYS CALL $145.00 December 0.50 0.45

Let's have a great day!!

- JB

Thursday Morning Charts: $QCOM, $SSYS, $ADSK And $EBAY

Here are a few charts I'm watching heading into week's end:

$EBAY: The stock is now at the bottom of a 1-year channel. It's found support at these levels in the past and I expect the same this time around. The December $52.50 calls are now going for $.67. It could be a nice risk/reward trade if $EBAY does what it's been doing all year: staying in the channel. The stock's long-term trend is also higher, and this is a well-defined bull flag.

ebay1121

$QCOM: This company's stock looks tired at current prices and we could see a pullback to sub-$70, where it will ultimately find support in the high $60's, namely at the $67 level. Stock options are cheap for $QCOM and a trade for the downside could be a profitable one. The December $70 puts are $.97.

qcom1121

$ADSK releases earnings tonight. We could be in the early stages of a topping pattern that implies a move to sub-$40 tomorrow, then a bounce back to lower highs. I'm looking at the December $40 puts for $1.00. Will be a 100-125% trade if the stock moves the way I think it will.

adsk1121

$SSYS: If we've learned anything since the March 2009 market lows, it's "don't fight the trend." In spite of a recent pullback, the trend for $SSYS is up. This stock will be at new all-time highs again in the short term. The December $135 calls are $1.05.

ssys1121

The OptionMillionaires.com Daily Watchlist: +370% and +504% Today

Every weekday morning a watchlist is published at OptionMillionaires.com with a brief overview of the day as well as a few trades we're looking to get into. Today, those trades are $GLD and $DUST.

The reason? Here's an excerpt of today's watchlist:

The CPI this morning came in at .1%, vs .2% and it’s continuing to show the lack of inflation. I believe this data plus the FOMC minutes this afternoon may become the next catalyst for gold to start heading under $1250, and get ready to test last spring’s lows.

 I’ll also be looking to enter a few bearish bets on gold once again, as I think it’ll break under $1250 this week, whereupon selling will then accelerate:

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
GLD PUT $120.00 Weekly 0.21 0.25
DUST CALL $39.00 Weekly 0.40 0.40

The rest of today's watchlist can be found here: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/november-20th-2013-watch-list/

The two possible trades on today's watchlist -- $GLD puts and $DUST calls -- performed incredibly well:

$GLD $120 puts closed up 370 percent.

$DUST $39 calls closed up 504 percent.

The daily watchlist is available to Silver, Gold, Diamond, and Diamond-plus levels at optionmillionaires.com.

dust39callsgld120p