USD/JPY Bullish Trade

The main headline in the currency market yesterday was that the USD/JPY (Dollar/Japanese Yen) broke a major resistance point, in fact it was a 25 year resistance line. Given the positive fundamental picture for this currency pair, and the breakout from major consolidation I think that the trade has more to room to the upside with little risk. After consolidating for all of 2015, the USD/JPY has finally broken out on heavy volume. To me that is the key: heavy volume. We saw a failed breakout on the SPY because it was on weak volume. When you have a breakout on heavy volume it means there is strong commitment to the trade and a lot of money going your way. I went long the FXY July 79 puts for $1.20. The FXY tracks the Japanese Yen vs the US Dollar. So by buying puts I am better that Yen will fall in value vs the Dollar.I am not sure how long I will hold them. I do not trade currencies that often so I will most likely just let the price action do the talking for me.

Because this is an option I need there to be a move in less than two months to make money. Another option is to just buy the currency pair, through Forex trading. If one were to do this I would put a stop at 121.50 (slightly below the breakout point). The risk is 2% and the upside in my opinion is probably 140 (a lot of analysts targets) long-term. For my puts I would like to see a double. Depending how the trade is going I may sell before the June Jobs Report, as this report is likely to have a major impact on the USD/JPY. I think the jobs report will be good considering that we have started to see better data. This only increases the likelihood of a September rate hike, and in turn the USD/JPY will strengthen.

sc (41)

Max Ganik (Maxzak) is a 19-year-old stock and option trader. As of June 2016, Max has been a member of Option Millionaires for over 3 years, and has been a contributor for over 2 years. Max regularly writes blogs for Option Millionaires and has also presented webinars.

Max is the founder of Ganik Market Strategies. He is a member of the Leaders Investment Club. Max has been interviewed by the New York Times, CNBC, and Bloomberg TV. He was also the first high school member of the New York Society of Security Analysts. Max is currently a member of the University of Michigan's premier investment club, Michigan Interactive Investments.

More Posts by Max: View All | See Max on CNBC

2 thoughts on “USD/JPY Bullish Trade”

Leave a Reply