Yep.... had the title of this been... "Stock Market to Hit New Record Highs"... no one would read it.
Who knows... maybe no one will read this one either. One thing is for certain. FEAR SELLS.... and screaming from the top that prices are never going to go higher again... that sells too. And usually the top calls come with a healthy dose of fear mongering.
"Over the last 5+ years how many bearish charts, how many comparisons to 1929, how many tops have been called? How many times have we heard this market is a bubble? Is 'frothy'. We are headed toward another market crash?"
Guess what? I wrote that in November 2014!!! 6 years ago!!
The $SPY was 50% lower than it is today... and we didn't have the World facing a historic pandemic either.
Guess what was getting called back in November 2014? A top for the stock market.
The more things change the more they stay the same!
The $SPY had just broken the internet bubble and housing crisis range.... and was breaking out....
.. but the top was in... right?
And ironically enough... those who had zero long exposure to the stock market then, as they were busy penning their bearish stock market articles... are back again with their top calls. I shouldn't even say back again... they've been here all along.
They were calling for a market crash in 2014 and they are still calling for it here in 2020... six years later...
Just how much long exposure do they have today? If you thought the price of something was going to drop 50% would you be buying it? Exactly.
Those uber bears who have been slinging their 50% market collapse poop at the wall for 10+ years aren't long the market. They never have been. Unless they are idiots. At some point it will stick. No doubt.
The irony is most need a 50-60% collapse for the stock market just to get back to their previous crash/top calls.
The excuses they've given remain mostly the same. And I've argued.... correctly so far.. that those reasons are exactly why the stock market will continue to head higher.
I even stated years ago that the next recession would send stock prices higher!! not lower. And that is exactly what we got. Who was calling for that.
The irony is the epic economic disaster far beyond what the bears could have ever imagined in their wildest dreams... it came. The shutdown of the global economy for months.
And the stock market went higher!!
For the same reasons I thought the next recession would trigger higher stock prices... not lower.
An epic Centrally planned response. We went from billions in 2008/2009 to trillions in 2020.
You don't have to like what the central banks are doing to be long.
I think that is part of the problem with the bearish narrative. They despise the central banker. Bernanke, Yellen, and Powell.
Being long the market, trading for higher stock prices, isn't an endorsement of the Central banks. Its an endorsement of reality.
And the reality has not changed. If anything its become more clear today than ever before.
So no... the answer is no.
The TOP is not in.
But lets thank those uber bears. Without them, we'd have a marker full of optimists and prices MUCH higher than they are today.
I wrote this in 2016.
Anyway here's all my top calls since 2014---