Tag Archives: Watchlist

1-15-2013 Watchlist

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Earnings seasons is starting to kick it up a notch with GS and JPM reporting this morning, and EBAY reporting after the bell.  GS smashed estimates and is up nearly 4% PM. JPM beat as well but is down modestly as I write this. Tomorrrow we have C, BAC, BLK, and INTC so those could either provide a boost to the market, or give the market a reason to fade.

 

Only one I will be trying to play is BLK for tomorrow but then will look to play some of the high beta names next week, which we will cover in the week ahead on Sunday Jan 20th.

 

CMG came out with preliminary earnings for Q4 well below estimates on food cost issues. The stock fell 10% and is bouncing a little. Not sure I will be playin CMG on the long side for a bit as it looks like the growth story continues to be on hold.

 

AAPL broke solidly under $500 and it seems to have had a smaller impact on the market then i would have expected.

 

SODA and SHLD broke higher yesterday, only to fade EOD. I still like both here and added 52.50 SODA calls and some SHLD 49 and 50.42 calls.

 

Here are some of the analyst changes this morning:

 

Chipotle reports Q4 preliminary EPS $1.92-$1.97, consensus $2.09

Reports Q4 preliminary revenue $699.2M, consensus $690.86M.

 

(CMG)

Chipotle shares likely to be down meaningfully, says Jefferies

Jefferies expects shares of Chipotle to be down meaningfully after the company preannounced weaker than expected Q4 earnings. The firm says it's becoming increasingly clear that Chipotle's same-store-sales and modest pricing will not maintain margins and could yield 2013 earnings significantly below consensus. Jefferies keeps an Underperform rating on the stock with a $215 price target.

 

(DNKN)

Dunkin' Brands announces plans to enter Southern California

Dunkin' Donuts announced that it is expanding to Southern California. Specifically, the company is recruiting multi-unit franchisees for Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, San Bernardino, Ventura and Orange counties and expects restaurants in these markets will begin to open in 2015. The company is also interested in identifying qualified food service operators for a wide range of non-traditional venues including colleges and universities, casinos, military bases, supermarkets, airports and travel centers. In 2013, the company plans to open 330-360 net new restaurants in the United States with grow

 

CMG)

Chipotle comps likely to bottom at 1% in Q1, says William Blair

William Blair says food inflation pressured Chipotle's Q4 after the company preannounced weaker than expected earnings for the quarter. The firm expects Chipotle's comps to bottom at roughly 1% in Q1 before moving higher on a likely price increase. William Blair views Chipotle's business as very healthy and said it would be opportunistic buyers on share weakness. The firm keeps an Outperform rating on the stock.

 

(WYNN)

Wynn Resorts downgraded to Neutral from Buy at ISI Group

ISI Group downgraded Wynn Resorts due to valuation.

 

 

Here are some of the strikes i am looking at today:

 

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
NFLX CALL $110.00 weekly 0.21 0.18
BLK CALL $230.00 weekly 0.60 0.50
LNKD CALL $120.00 weekly 0.64 0.60

 

 

I like BLK to continue the uptrend and break above $230 for earnings tomorrow. Heck, stock is correcting itself from a YEAR of underperforming the market for the wrong reasons. I think NFLX will get legs today or tomorrow after yesterdays fade and will play $110 calls for a flip. Also think LNKD will get some footing if FB stays green today.

 

That is all for now.. Lets have a great trading day!

- Jimmybob

1-15-2013 Watchlist

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Futures are red but feels somewhat flat this morning with retail numbers due out this morning. Bernacke did not spill any beans or make any market moving remarks yesterday besides making it sound like QE infinity will not end in 2013. The market has closed somewhat flat the last two trading sessions, which is somewhat welcome as consolidation is needed again before we break to $150 on the SPY.

 

Tomorrow kicks off some more serious earnings with JPM before the bell and EBAY after the bell. Not playing those but both could swing the market a bit.

 

All the good news we have seen toward the end of the year on Solar has now turned sour. Another article out today on the oversupply of Solar modules in 2013: http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20130114PD203.html

 

Obviously puts on FSLR would be the play with the $30 probably the best bet. On watch for now but wont play today unless i see some serious volume to the downside.

 

 

Remember that Facebook has an event at 1pm  today so something to keep an eye on. Also, an article in the times today about FB taking over GOOG as top search engine if they added search..  http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/15/technology/fortunes-of-facebook-may-hinge-on-searches.html?ref=business&_r=0

 

DELL had a boatload of upgrades today on the B/O rumors so be a bit wary there trying to play that for now. Here are some the of the analyst changes this morning:

 

(AAPL)

Apple shares likely to rise on strong Q4 results, says Jefferies

Jefferies expects Apple to report strong Q4 results and issue guidance for Q1 slightly above consensus. The firm thinks the stock will rise on the results and reiterates a Buy rating on Apple with an $800 price target.

 

(AAPL)

Apple weakness a buying opportunity, says RW Baird

Baird believes weakness in Apple is a buying opportunity as most demand factors remain favorable. The firm is raising their Q4 iPhone forecast slightly and believes gross margins will benefit from sales of both the iPhone 4 and IPhone 4S. Shares remain Outperform rated with a $750 price target

 

Apple PT Lowered from $660 to $530 at Nomura, Neutral rated

 

 

(MLNX)

Mellanox upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS

UBS upgraded Mellanox (MLNX) and raised estimates above the Street due to increased conviction in InfiniBand adoption and discounted Intel (INTC) risks. Price target raised to $65 from $56.

 

 

I posted my SHLD calls in chat but was out so was unable to post via twitter or text, SHLD was one of those plays that you see going and just trust the gut. I still think she goes over $50 sometime soon as all the ANALysts talk about retail numbers when its not about that, its an asset play.

 

I really like ISRG to keep going, the chart shows plenty of room to $530 or so and I think  it will happen in short order. Will look to grab more calls this morning. I still have SODA calls and think she breaks $50 today finally. Will look to add more calls there as well.

 

Strikes I am watching:

 

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
SODA CALL $50.00 Jan 0.65 0.65
SODA CALL $52.50 Jan 0.20 0.15
ISRG CALL $540.00 JAN (WKLY) 0.55 0.40

 

 

 

I had to take care of something so was traveling yesterday and will not be back home till friday night. Will try my best to be in the chatroom... ect so you should see little or no change from my normal presence.

 

Lets have a great trading day!

 

- jimmybob

11-14-2013 Watchlist

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Hope everyone had a great weekend. We had some issues getting the week ahead together as I was supposed to handle it Sunday and had problems. Will try putting something together possibly Tuesday night. I do apologize for any troubles. I will also not be in the chatroom for the open today, Monday January 14th but will be back by 11am or so.

 

This week starts a major uptick in earnings with some big banks reporting mid-week. I will not be playing any of them but just keep them on watch as it may influence the market during the end of the week.

 

Reports out about AAPL cutting orders for components has the stock down nearly 3.7% pre-market near $500 : http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323596204578240440691304344.html?ru=MKTW&mod=MKTW

 

Wont be playing it but would figure big money would be in the loop on something like that weeks before. Can’t see how the WSJ is breaking this as new news.

 

This is the type of article that scares me in the coming weeks and months: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323596204578240440691304344.html?ru=MKTW&mod=MKTW

 

I would bet the next black swan event will be something along the lines of a combination of the high-frequency trading programs and a margin call of epic proportions. Time will tell but putting that article in the archives for future reference.

 

I have spoken quite a bit about the China ADR’s and how my sentiment started to  turn in the fall and I became bearish. Well looks like i continue to be wrong here as BIDU, SINA and others continue to rip higher. BIDU is partnering with a company to create browsers in africa: http://allthingsd.com/20130114/baidu-builds-a-mobile-browser-for-emerging-markets-and-gets-orange-to-pre-install-it/

 

Should bode well for the stock today and may help pull the other ADR’s higher like SINA.

 

Here are some of the Analyst changes today:

 

ISRG)

Intuitive Surgical upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Lazard Capital

Lazard Capital upgraded Intuitive Surgical with a $600 price target citing the recent pullback in shares and the company's strong procedure growth.

 

Verizon downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS

UBS downgraded Verizon to reflect lower profitability due to higher subsidy's and indirect channel costs in wireless and increased costs in wireline. Price target lowered to $44 from $48

 

Abercrombie & Fitch named a Best idea for 2013 at Janney Capital

Janney Capital expects Abercrombie to benefit from positive inventory and an inflection in GMROI, resulting in improved margin performance. Shares are Buy rated.

 

I will look to add to my SINA position possibly as I think the stock continues to trend higher. Will look for 57.5s first and then the 60s if no fill at my prices.

 

ISRG had a nice upgrade today and think it will try to get back to the levels before that Citron report that sent the shares reeling. Will try for 535s and maybe 540s if no fill. The spreads are pretty wide on the options so will require patience.

 

Again folks I will not be in the chatroom until about 11am or so, apologize for any trouble and lets start the week off in style.

 

- JImmybob

1-11-13 Watchlist

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We start today with the market closing at 5 year highs yesterday. I think I have repeated this about 20 times in the last few months, but $150 on the SPY looks to be a magnet now. Will get volatile there and would expect that to happen in the next 2-3 weeks...

 

WFC had the earnings of note today to kick off the banks, which have quite a few reporting next week. WFC beat on rev and eps and is fading here pre-market.

 

Quite a few Upgrade/downgrades today. Citigroup started SODA coverage with a buy and $60tgt. Still holding calls but will not add anymore yet.  I do have SINA calls and will watch to see if the crazy china adr rally continues.

 

Here are the changes:

 

(DNDN)

Dendreon upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Bernstein

Bernstein upgraded Dendreon based on favorable urologists feedback that indicates increasing Provenge use and reduced expectations. Price target raised to $10 from $7.

 

(JCP)

J.C. Penney downgraded to Sell from Neutral at UBS

UBS downgraded J.C. Penney due to a deteriorating earnings outlook, fundamental pressures, and significant changed needed in its turnaround strategy. Price target lowered to $13 from $21

 

 

(SODA)

SodaStream initiated with a Buy at Citigroup

Citigroup expects SodaStream will be one of the fastest growth stories in the Beverages group over the next few years given new distribution wins and higher household penetration rates. The firm started shares with a Buy rating and $60 price target.

 

 

Two Beer companies were upgraded today, may help SAM:

 

(BUD)

AB InBev recent weakness a buying opportunity, says Citigroup

Citigroup recommends using the recent weakness in shares of AB InBev as a buying opportunity. Citi believes concerns over the Department of Justice review of the Modelo deal are overdone as it expects the deal will go through.

 

(TAP)

Molson Coors initiated with a Buy at Nomura

Target $54.

 

Last friday we got lucky with GOOG, will watch LNKD, NFLX, and PCLN for lottos today.

 

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration
LNKD CALL $120.00 weekly
PCLN CALL $660.00 weekly
NFLX CALL $100.00 weekly

 

 

If you missed the class last night it is in the forums: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/forum/showthread.php/222-Selling-Option-Premium-with-LeeMalone?p=411#post411

 

Also the week ahead will be saturday night and will be saved in the forum as well.

 

Lets have a great day and have a great weekend folks!

 

- Jimmybob

1-10-2013 Watchlist

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We are quietly heading towards those 5 year highs once again as the market finished in the green yesterday. Futures are up again and have been ramping all morning.

 

China continues to show signs of growth and thats helping fuel US rally:

China : http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/chinas-trade-growth-soars-in-positive-sign-for-economic-rebound-exports-jump-14-percent/2013/01/09/33ca2070-5ad8-11e2-b8b2-0d18a64c8dfa_story.html?hpid=z3

 

ECB also kept rates unchanged this morning so no surprises. Another upgrade for AMZN today as well as  2 for WYNN. LNKD was also started at outperform by CSLA and is up pre-market.

 

Tim Cook is meeting with China Mobile and that is giving a bid into AAPL up over 2% to 530.

 

MCP is down 13% after announcing FY 13 revenue will come in lower then expected.

Looks like BPT ex-divy date is tomorrow so 80 calls will have one more day of possible fun!

 

Here are some of the analyst changes:

(AMZN)

Amazon.com called favorite name in large cap e-commerce at Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank calls Amazon.com its favored name in large cap e-commerce, saying the company is one of a few that can increase revenue by ten times over the next several years. Deutsche views the biggest catalysts for Amazon shares as margin expansion, which it feels could materialize as early as Q1. The firm has a Buy rating on the stock with a $305 price target

(WYNN)

Follow-up: Wynn Resorts upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Lazard Capital

Lazard Capital upgraded Wynn Resorts with a $145 price target citing higher assumed Macau market growth. The firm believes Wynn is well positioned to benefit from a VIP rebound.

 

Deutsche Bank maintains Wynn Resorts, Limited (NASDAQ: WYNN) with a Buy and raises the price target from $135.00 to $144.00.

Missed entry on the RL 170 calls on the watchlist yesterday @ .55 they hit 1.10. WIll pass for now.

 

Will look to add to SAM position today as well as possibly adding more WYNN $125 weekly:

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
SAM CALL $150.00 FEB 0.60 0.45
WYNN CALL $125.00 Weekly 0.14 0.25

 

 

With market up at the open, will be wary of a possible fade so will hang tight.

 

 

Dont forget Leemalone’s class today at 4:30 :  https://www.optionmillionaires.com/live-event-classes-jtv/

 

 

 

Lets have a great day!

 

- Jimmybob