Stocks fell yesterday as Cyprus reached a last minute deal to avert disaster. Haven't we heard this story before? Bailouts, disaster, market turmoil, Eurozone exit, fiscal cliff, the sequester, the list grows each year, and yet here we sit only points away from an all time high on the S&P 500. The bears have been calling for a collapse each step along the way... how has that worked out for them so far? I've been saying it for many moons now, don't fight the trend, and stated well over a year ago that we'd break through to all time highs. We have already hit new all time highs for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and small cap stocks, next up is the S&P500. It is coming and with the bears salivating after the recent dip, I am that much more confident it is coming soon. BTFD, QE, sell the VIX, we trade in a market that is being manipulated. Central banks that have one purpose and an unlimited credit card. Fight them at your own peril. I think we can all agree that the longer term picture is not bright, and there will be a time to be playing for downside. Declines are buying opportunities. Dips are to be bought, its worked since the 2009 lows and until it stops working that is the way to trade this market.
REMINDER: This is a holiday shortened week with only three trading days left. I would be surprised to see a big move in either direction this week and remain cautious toward opening many short term option positions.
Some upgrades/downgrades/rumors/comments today:
Netflix price target raised to $225 from $160 at Pacific Crest
Pacific Crest raised its price target for Netflix citing increased margin and subscriber assumptions. The firm expects Netflix's information advantage and content spending to drive subscriber growth and recommends owning the stock with an Outperform rating.
Apple likely to be hurt in near-term by refresh rumors, says Oppenheimer
Oppenheimer believes that consumers will likely hold off buying new iPhones and iPads due to rumors about the launch of new devices this summer. The firm believes that Apple may miss consensus estimates for its March and June quarters, and it expects the stock to remain range bound over the near-term. But Oppenheimer remains upbeat about the company's long-term outlook and keeps an Outperform rating on the stock.
Apple June guidance likely to miss consensus, says Piper Jaffray
Piper Jaffray believes the risk/reward to owning Apple shares is favorable, but thinks the consensus estimates are too high for the March and June quarters. Piper expects Apple to report March quarter results within the company's guidance, but below consensus, while issuing an outlook for the June quarter below expectations. Nonetheless, Piper thinks product announcements should reaccelerate Apple’s earnings growth from a negative 14% in the first half of 2013 to a positive 15% in the back half. The firm reiterates an Overweight rating on Apple shares with a $767 price target.
Caterpillar price target lowered to $109 from $118 at Susquehanna
Susquehanna lowered its price target on Caterpillar to reflect lowered estimates from its Resource Industries company. The firm expects shares to be range bound in the near-term until confidence improves on a bottoming of capital expenditures of mining. Shares are Positive rated.
S&P 500 price target raised to 1760 from 1650 at Canaccord
Canaccord raised its 2013 S&P 500 target to 1760 from 1650 due to reduced signs of systemic risk, better than expected economic and earnings trends, and reduced valuation constraints. The firm now continues to expect 2013 operating earnings of $110 and raised its multiple to 16x from 15x.
TripAdvisor price target raised to $58 from $50 at Stifel
Stifel believes that TripAdvisor has a massive traffic advantage and provides unique utility to travel planners, while the company has opportunities in reviews, data collection and marketing. The firm maintains a Buy rating on the stock.
Electronic Arts upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Jaffray
Piper Jaffray upgraded Electronic Arts citing the company's CEO transition and margin expansion opportunities. The firm raised its price target for shares to $23 from $20. :thefly
eBay shares should keep working in intermediate term, says Cantor
Cantor believes that sustained growth of Marketplaces and traction with PayPal should enable eBay's stock to perform well over the intermediate term. The firm maintains a $56 price target and Buy rating on the shares.
I remain a buyer of BIDU calls and think the stock will break over $90 in the short term. I like AAPL to trade over $500 soon and continue to defy all the analysts who continue to speak negatively of the stock. I was waiting for a bounce for $HLF before trading the puts. It was a great profit the last time to the downside. I may have missed my chance but will watch for reentry. EBAY should get a decent bounce into the end of the week.
Possible trades I will make for today:
EBAY $52.50 weekly calls last price $.57 looking for entry $.50
BIDU $87.50 and $90 weekly calls $.26 and $.05
NFLX $190 weekly calls $.45