Tag Archives: Watchlist

August 16th Watchlist

Stocks got clobbered yesterday as the buyers who brought the indexes up to new all time highs recently have all but vanished. I don't think we are there yet, as far as the bubble bursting and the recent declines are nothing but a break before we see new all time highs later this year. Bonds continue to look very vulnerable with $TLT falling along with stocks yesterday. On the flip side was gold, silver, and the gold miners. The rocketed higher yesterday with silver having its best week in over 25 years.

The question is where do we head today? More losses or do we see a relief rally? I think, at least short term we are in for a recovery of some of yesterdays losses. Some individual stocks namely $GOOG, have really taken it on the chin this week and could be the first to recover. Bonds still look like a great trade heading into months end and into the "Fall". There will be bounces along the way but I think those will be short lived.

Analyst upgrades/downgrades/notes:

$NFLX Netflix to be hurt by new competition, says Bernstein
After media outlets reported that Sony (SNE) reached a preliminary deal to offer Viacom (VIA) content on an Internet TV service, Bernstein thinks the move by Sony could increase Netflix's competition. The firm thinks that Sony's content may eventually become as good or better than Netflix's offerings. . Bernstein keeps an Underperform rating on Netflix

$AA Alcoa downgraded at BofA/Merrill
As previously reported, BofA/Merrill downgraded Alcoa to Underperform from Neutral. The firm downgraded shares due to lower aluminum price forecasts and cut its 2014 EPS estimate to 20c, below consensus of 51c. Price target is $8

$TRIP TripAdvisor pullback a long-term buying opportunity, says Wunderlich
Wunderlich views the pullback in shares of TripAdvisor following the company's CEO comments regarding a weaker Q3 as a buying opportunity for long-term investors. The firm believes the comments reflect the continued challenges of the metasearch transition, but feels the transition is right strategy. Wunderlich keeps a Buy rating on the stock with an $80 price target

$BBRY BlackBerry unlikely to be sold for more than $10 per share, says Pacific Crest
Pacific Crest believes that many investors may not have realized that BlackBerry has $5.3B in off-balance sheet purchase obligations, as the company disclosed in a June regulatory filing. The firm thinks the company's balance sheet likely overstates the value of its tangible assets, while its IP value has been diminished. The firm keeps an Underperform rating on the stock.

$WMT Wal-Mart price target lowered to $83 from $88 at RW Baird
Baird lowered its price target on Wal-Mart following Q2 results and lowered outlook. The firm cited management guidance, but believes easier comps and sharper price investments increase the odds of sequential comp improvements across the second half of 2013. Shares remain Outperform rated

$BA Boeing weakness may create buying opportunity, says Oppenheimer
Oppenheimer believes that the chances that Boeing will have to take charges on its 747, F-15 and C-17 planes in 2013 are increasing. The firm's bias is to use any related weakness in the stock as a buying opportunity, as it still expects Boeing to generate about $10B of free cash flow in coming years. Oppenheimer keeps an Outperform rating on the stock

$RIG Transocean downgraded to Underweight from Overweight at Johnson Rice

$P Pandora upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman
Goldman upgraded Pandora with a $27 price target citing accelerating mobile ads and subscription revenue growth

Options I am looking to buy today:

$AMZN $290 calls $.38
$GOOG $865 calls $1.00
$BA $103 calls $.35

August 15th Watchlist

Stocks start the day sharply lower with the $SPY set to open some .6% lower than it closed the day yesterday. $CSCO is down over 8% early on with 10 year resistance acting again as a wall that the stock can not break. https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2013/csco-earnings-video-tonights-earnings-report-will-make-or-break-the-stock-going-forward/

$NTAP is also lower down 3.8% I own the weekly calls that will likely open worthless today. That is the risk you take trading out of the money weekly options on a company reporting earnings. Had the trade gone the other way there would have been profits. Unfortunately it did not.

In spite of the markets decline, bonds continue to sell off. $TLT is at $104.70 pre-market after being close to $108 on Monday. This trade looks to continue to pay off in spite of where the market heads. Traders/investors have come to the realization that bonds are not the place to be, just as they came to the realization earlier this year that gold was not the place to be. Again we may have bounces along the way but $TLT, in my view, is in for a steep decline into the fall and winter of 2013.

Those $106 $TLT puts at $.19 from monday will be worth north of $1.40 at the open.

$AAPL broke over $500 yesterday but did not hold all those gains. Its down .5% pre-market at 496, there is a good chance we get some consolidation here before the next spike up for $AAPL.

$GOOG has been in a tailspin since early this week. After the break on Tuesday of long term support the next line of support is at 845. I still think this stock sees $1,000 before years end, but looks like its coming a little later than I expected.

$TSLA dropped 4% yesterday, at this stage the selling could continue for a few more days as support was broken early in the session yesterday. I think $TSLA will be over $200 this year, but upside might wait until the earnings gap from $132 is filled. The stock closed yesterday at $139.36

$DE the bounce trade worked for about 20 minutes yesterday as the stock came off its opening spike lower. Ultimately the stock stuck its head into the mud and didn't provide any type of move the rest of the day. This morning we have a downgrade to hold on the stock. Doesn't look like we will see that $85 figure hit before the close tomorrow again the risks that occur when buying an option only a few days from expiration.

Check the blog before the open for my morning market video. I will post the link in the chat room/forum as well.

Analysts upgrade/downgrades/remarks/notes:

$DE Deere downgraded to Hold from Buy at Argus

$HPQ Hewlett-Packard price target raised to $33 from $29 at Bernstein
Bernstein believes Hewlett-Packard shares are still "very inexpensive" and FY13 earnings estimates are too low given cost cutting efforts but notes weaker revenue growth and share loss remain investor concerns. The firm rates shares an Outperform

$AAPL Apple could nearly double share buybacks, says RBC Capital
RBC Capital believes that Apple could nearly double the amount of money it spends on share buybacks while still maintaining a manageable leverage ratio. The firm thinks that such a move could increase the company's FY14 EPS by 10%+. It keeps an Outperform rating on the stock

$HD Home Depot Q2 trends solid, says Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley said Home Depot vendor results indicate Q2 trends are solid driven by increased repair and remodeling activity, favorable weather, and strong housing data. The firm expects internal initiatives to aid Q2 results but remains Equal Weight rated due to valuation.

$CSCO Cisco sell-off post earnings a buying opportunity, says Citigroup
Citigroup views the 10% sell-off in shares of Cisco following the company's results as overdone and a buying opportunity. Citi believes weaker emerging markets will be more than offset by health in the U.S. and improving European demand. The firm reiterates a Buy rating on the stock with a $26 price target

$FL Foot Locker remains an attractive investment opportunity, says Credit Suisse
Credit Suisse said while Q2 upside may be limited there are numerous opportunities for Foot Locker shares to move higher driven by several catalysts that include store remodel activity, international growth, increased buyback activity, and additional margin drivers. Shares are Outperform rated with a $43 price target

$NTAP NetApp Q1 results 'nearly flawless,' says Piper Jaffray
Piper Jaffray says NetApp's Q1 results were "nearly flawless" and attributes the post-earnings share pullback to heightened expectations and weaker than expected results from other tech companies last night. Piper says NetApp continues to gain market share and reiterates an Overweight rating on the stock with a $45 price targe

$TRIP TripAdvisor pullback a long-term buying opportunity, says Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank views yesterday's pullback in TripAdvisor shares as a buying opportunity for long-term investors. The firm says that while consensus estimates for Q3 may be too high, estimates for 2014 look low. Deutsche has a Buy rating on the stock

Trade ideas:

These ideas are dependent upon the 1 hr into the session buy the dip action that we've witnessed the last 5 years.

$FB $36.50 calls $.38
$TRIP $75 calls $.25
$BAC $14.50 calls $.05

August 14th Watchlist

Yesterday was all about $AAPL. Carl Icahn utilized twitter to announce a big purchase in the company and said there was more to come. I think this sends $AAPL over $500 before the end of the week. It may consolidate, but the trend is higher over the rest of the year.

Stocks slumped at the open yesterday but most recovered their losses as the day progressed. As zerohedge noted later in the day http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-08-13/its-deja-btfd-all-over-again, the BTFD action has been almost like pavlovs dog. Every day the dip gets bought yet the market remains off its highs. Are we consolidating for the next move to break through all time highs? Or is the market running out of money and ready to pull back?

Bonds took a tumble yesterday with $TLT plunging below $105 before recovering. While there may be bounces along the way $TLT puts are going to work out well moving into the end of summer and end of year. Those $106 puts @.19 on monday traded as high as $1.30 yesterday.

$GOOG looks to be suffering from $AAPL's rally as they are moving in different directions. I'd like to think GOOG will make a move over $900 into weeks end, but thus far the stock is stuck in reverse. Yesterday it broke through November 2012 support and the stock needs to get back above it in a hurry.

We have some earnings after the bell. I like NTAP for a pop afterhours. CSCO I am not so sure about. However the trend for CSCO is up, and last earnings it gapped higher, so I'd lean toward more upside post earnings.

This is monthly option expiration week, invariably stocks seem to stick to strike prices. I wrote this last year "https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2012/pegged-aapl-and-goog-stock-prices-manipulated-on-options-expiriation-part-i/"

DE reported earnings this morning, I may try and get in early on with some calls.

Have a great trading day.

Earnings after the bell include CSCO and NTAP

U.S. wholesale prices were unchanged in July, as prices declined for energy, didn't change for food, and rose for pharmaceuticals, the U.S. Department of Labor reported Wednesday.
Meanwhile, the core producer-price index, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.1%. The report signals that inflation was contained in July. Weak international conditions have been pressuring prices.

Upgrades/downgrades/analyst notes

$WMT Wal-Mart anticipate improved sales recovery, says Susquehanna
Susquehanna previewed Wal-Mart's Q2 earnings report and believes the company remains well positioned to capitalize on the value-seeking mid- to low-end consumer while showing a modest improvement in same store sales. The firm has immediate concerns over the back-to-school season and recent trends in the low-consumer market. Shares remain Positive rated with an $85 price target.

$BBY Best Buy price target raised to $38 from $30 at Barclays
Barclays expects Best Buy to report Q2 EPS of 13c vs. consensus of 12c and continues to see upside to share driven by recent changes, the Microsoft partnership to create Windows stores within a store, cost cuts, and topline growth. Shares are Overweight rated.

$EBAY eBay July SSS growth appears to have accelerated, says JMP Securities
JMP Securities believes that Channel Advisor’s July same-store sales data suggests that eBay's growth accelerated to 20.4% last month. The firm is encouraged by the data and thinks it could indicate that the company's back to school results will improve. The firm reiterates a $65 price target and Buy rating on the stock.

$CREE Cree downgraded to Neutral from Buy at DA Davidson
DA Davidson downgraded CREE to reflect slower than expected margin expansion and revenue growth following the Q2 report and disappointing guidance. Price target lowered to $65 from $79.

$SINA SINA price target raised to $97 from $67.80 at Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank raised its price target for SINA following the company's better than expected Q2 results and keeps a Buy rating on the stock. Note shares were upgraded this morning at Citigroup to Buy from Sell

$SINA SINA upgraded to Buy from Sell at Citigroup
Citigroup upgraded SINA two notches to Buy from Sell and raised its price target for shares to $96 from $35. Citi believes SINA is experiencing financial momentum due to its partnership with Alibaba and Weibo earnings visibility. SINA shares closed yesterday up 3% to $82.90

Trades I am looking at for today:

DE $85 calls .65
TSLA $149 calls $.99

August 13th Watchlist

Stocks fell most of the day yesterday. Aside from the opening bell ramp off the lows the market was range bound. Some stocks, however, were not so range bound. $AAPL rocketed almost 3% higher and is ticking higher this morning before the bell. I think the stock sees $500 before months end and continues to rally into the end of the year. For now the dips are being bought and there shouldn't be much downside until the stock hits $500.

$TLT is looking great this morning, I highlighted $TLT in yesterdays watchlist and said to watch for a decline. "I am still looking for the next big leg down in bonds which should be very profitable when it happens. " I think that big decline in upon us. Yesterdays pull back coupled with today's gap down below support, could be the start of that next leg lower for $TLT. I was in and highlighted the $106 puts at $.19 yesterday, I also had the $107 puts on the watchlist yesterday morning. Going to be a very profitable day for $TLT put holders.

$SINA is up over 6% early on, with at least 3 analysts raising tgts to upwards of $100. Not sure how much money can be made trading the options here, and not sure how it will affect the other Chinese stocks.

$TSLA still looks like a $200+ stock to me. I may look for calls as we get closer to weeks end and prices start to come down.

Here are some analyst upgrades/downgrades/notes today:

$M Macy's Q2 results could be negative catalyst, says Buckingham
Buckingham says that short-term investors may want to sell some of their shares of Macy's, as the firm predicts that the company's Q2 results could be a negative catalyst. The firm thinks the retailer could modestly reduce its 2H13 comp outlook, but nevertheless Buckingham remains bullish on the company's long-term outlook. It keeps a Buy rating on the shares

$MSFT Microsoft downgraded at Stifel
As previously reported, Stifel downgraded Microsoft to Hold from Buy. The analyst has increased concerns regarding pricing pressure and earnings headwinds from Windows S&M expenses. The firm lowered estimates and believes Q1 and FY14 consensus estimates are too high given substantial Windows challenges

$SINA SINA price target raised to $100 from $80 at Stifel
Stifel raised its target on SINA after the company reported stronger than expected Q2 results. The firm thinks that Weibo's potential is finally being realized, and it keeps a Buy rating on the shares

$HOG Harley-Davidson checks show July retail sales up 8%-11%, says Citigroup
Citigroup said its dealer checks indicate Harley-Davidson's retail sales rose 8%-11% during July and that the momentum seemed to carry into August. However, Citi says the more important catalyst will be the late August launch of Harley-Davidson's new products. The firm keeps a Buy rating on the stock with a $64 price target

$SINA SINA price target raised to $99 from $68 at Brean Capital
Brean Capital raised SINA's price target to $99 following strong Q2 results and robust Weibo growth outlook. The firm sees meaningful operating leverage driven by Weibo acceleration and reiterates its Buy rating

Trades I am looking at today:

$GDX $27.50 puts $.40
$AMZN $305 calls $.45

August 12th Watchlist

The markets are set to open the week lower, with stock futures currently down over .3%. Precious metals are higher, as are the miner etfs. The dollar is stronger as well as bonds, lets see if this trend remains intact. I am still looking for the next big leg down in bonds which should be very profitable when it happens. $AAPL is modestly higher with a September 10th date for the next Iphone release.

Barrons came out again this weekend stating their disdain for $TSLA at its current $155 price. They said the same thing earlier this year with TSLA at lower prices. They also thought $FB was a $14 stock. But they are right more often than not, and readers follow their advice, so look for TSLA weakness early this week.

Many upgrades and downgrades today:

$FFIV F5 Networks upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays
Barclays upgraded F5 Networks to reflect positive data points in networking, increased confidence in the new BIG-IP modules introduction, and the significant security opportunity. Price target raised to $107 from $89

$NTAP -->> NetApp price target raised to $50 from $43 at Brean Capital
Brean Capital raised its price target for NetApp after its channel checks indicated strengthening demand for the company's products. The firm believes NetApp shares can continue to appreciate into the company's August 14 earnings call.

$LNKD --->>

LinkedIn upgraded to Buy from Hold at Needham
Needham upgraded Linkedin based on growth opportunities that include the rollout of sponsored updates, mobile positioning, and international monetization. Price target is $280

$AAPL --->>

Apple price target lowered to $595 from $710 at Needham
Needham lowered its price target for Apple shares citing a more intense competitive environment since its last valuation update in February. The firm keeps a Buy rating on the stock

$BBRY --->> BlackBerry strength a selling opportunity, says Bernstein
Bernstein believes a full takeover of BlackBerry is unlikely given the current market capitalization and continued share loss in both the consumer and corporate markets. The firm believes today's news indicates ongoing operational issues and would use strength as a selling opportunity. Shares are Underperform rated

$FL --->> Foot Locker shares should be bought into Q2 results, says Sterne Agee
Sterne Agee believes that expectations are low for Foot Locker. Recent speculation that basketball and athletic footwear have lost popularity is unfounded, according to the firm. The firm expects the company to benefit from strong industry trends and share gains, and it keeps a Buy rating on the stock

$GOOG -->> Google cloud service a misunderstood part of company, says RW Baird
Baird believes Google's cloud platform is uniquely positioned to become the next large player in the cloud services market citing its application, platform and infrastructure services. The firm believes it is one of the least understood parts of the company and could be potentially larger than YouTube. Shares are Outperform rated with a $1,000 price target.

Some trades I am looking at for this week:

$TLT $107 weekly puts .30
$GOOG $905 weekly calls $1.10