Tag Archives: Watchlist

Ross Stores, Inc (ROST)

It seems every week there is a stock in the retail sector moving 15%+. Fossil (FOSL), Deckers Outdoor Corp (DECK), and JC Penney (JCP) all saw their shares ripped to shreds on disappointing earnings and lower outlooks. Is the economy really starting to show signs of cracking? Maybe analysts had the bar set to high? I am sure its some of those reasons and more, but there are companies that should continue to buck the trend. Ross Stores, Inc (ROST) looks like one of them. Yes, the stock is up nearly 100% yoy, but who cares. Follow the momentum.

The market speaks, sometimes you just need to listen. Take a look at the open interest on the calls and puts expiring in 2 days:

Open Interest on ROST May calls and puts : CALLS : 33,500 PUTS: 13,847

We are betting on the upside tomorrow as Ross Stores, Inc (ROST) reports earnings before the opening.

 

Disclosure: We currently hold $65 May calls.

 

SINA Corporation (SINA)

Sina Corporation (SINA) has been an Optionmillionaires favorite over the past few months.There is nothing that an option trader likes more than a volatile stock, and SINA Corporation (SINA) sure fits the bill. SINA Corporation (SINA) reported earnings after hours, and the stock rose nearly 7%. Folks were expecting a loss, which they got, but revenue was above expectations. With all the bad press as of late, it was almost a relief that SINA Corporation (SINA) expects to still generate revenues with the China censorship crackdown.

It's one of the reasons we think there will be some serious upside upgrades tomorrow. SINA Corporation (SINA) pulled in just over $100 mil in revenues for the past quarter, yet has over 300 million users of its twitter like service. If they are able to just pull in $.50-$1 per user, they will experience some SERIOUS growth. Smart "Growth Companies" sacrifice short term profits, for long term growth. Looks like Sina CEO Charles Chao is continuing to do that, which is great news in our opinion:

Sina CEO Charles Chao said: "China's macroeconomic weakness in the first quarter the Company's brand advertising business growth moderate. We expect the macroeconomic aspects of the resistance will continue until the second quarter, however, we have begun to test the water micro- Bo brand advertising business. this advertising product recommendation engine driven by the map-based social interest, is expected to be in the second half of the year for our brand advertising business real impact. the current the microblogging advertisers preliminary feedback is encouraging, we believe that to continue major investment is necessary for social media and related projects. "

 

Of course there are the folks looking at the news release tonight seeing this headline:

Sina Corp could see further losses due to Weibo: CEO

The market is forward looking, and think this view is very short sighted. With the penetration they have, in a market with few competitors, I think SINA has much more upside then folks are giving her.I guess we will see tomorrow. Here is what we were saying on our watchlist this morning and monday:

SINA – 60 calls before the close for me, think earnings will not be too good, but the outlook and china restrictions will be the key.

SINA – reports this week as well, with RENN. Hard to figure, but I still like SINA. Not sure of the strikes yet and may wait till Tuesday AM.

 

Happy Trading!!

 

Disclosure: we hold $57.50 and $60 MAY calls

Sodastream (SODA) – pop pop fizz fizz…

 

Sodastream (SODA) is a company we have been high on for sometime and have wrote about her throughout 2012. This company has continued to produce huge results quarter after quarter, only to find the shorts holding larger and larger positions. This mornings earnings release and subsequent conference call was music to stockholders ears. Not only did they beat estimates and raise their outlook, but also announced they are finally headed into the worlds largest retailer... Walmart.

This is the news everyone was waiting for and should help keep Sodastream (SODA)'s growth story intact. We like this stock for the longer term, and think she tests $65 by the middle of the summer.

Here is what we were saying about SODA this week via our AM watchlist and chatroom:

 

SODA : old favorite that we have all played over the past few months. Thanks GMCR for scaring out some folks. SODA will beat like it has every Q, but there will be no kinks in the report this time, and stock will go $40+. Will be looking for $35/37.50s this morning for the ramp up.

 

We expect Sodastream (SODA) to be one of the stocks they will talk about at the end of 2012. Guess time will tell if we are right...

Where is the market headed tomorrow?

Most daytraders close out their positions before the close. Making a living trading stocks is all about controlling your risks, and obviously there is more risk when you hold an equity overnight. Who knows what type of news can come out before the market opens that may impact your holdings. Better to lock-in the gain or loss before the close, and wait for the next trading day. That is, unless you are an option trader. Why? Well some of the most Epic moves come from holding a position over a few days.

Lets use todays move on LinkedIn(LNKD) as an example.

Stocks like LinkedIn (LNKD) are susceptible to volatile moves which is caused by the varying opinions of the 'proper' valuation of the stock. There are those who think a stock with a P/E ratio of 800 is a bubble and then the ones with the foresight(like myself) who are more forward looking, and think LinkedIn (LNKD) is undervalued. Bulls and bears squared off today. With Greece grabbing the headlines again (puke) causing a market sell off, LinkedIn(LNKD) fell over 8% to $101.53.

Its at that moment when option traders start to salivate. Not more then 3 trading days ago, LinkedIn (LNKD) traded over $120, now it sat almost 20% off its highs. CALLS! Buying the calls today at that moment would have resulted in some huge returns. But it those who hold for another day or two that may reap the big rewards. Take a look at the possible return today on the LinkedIn (LNKD) $11o calls. $550 into $4,400 possible.

But if you have read our blog, your know we are extremely bullish on LinkedIn(LNKD). Todays action maybe a prelude to the stock trading firmly above $120, which would result in those calls being up substantially more. Time will tell.

 

Where is the market headed tomorrow? We have used the VIX the last few months as a forward looking indicator, along with some other signals.  The VIX pushed through the upper bollie, only to fall back through it. We think this is a key reversal signal. Take a look at the chart below:

 

The great thing about options is, you only need to be right a few times out of 10 to make some serious cash. Check back after tomorrow and let us know how we did.

This has to be good for the market…

With the employment numbers from last week still weighing on the market, people have overlooked the news piece that will be a catalyst for the rest of the summer. Obama and Romney are now in a virtual dead heat in the polls. 

 

As you read the press, there continues to be a glaring trend:

Two new polls find that although the candidates are tied for overall support, Obama remains the more well-liked candidate and Romney is considered the more apt at handling the economy.

 

Now if the economy was still on the mend with the unemployment numbers going down, Obama was a lock for re-election. But with the increased concern about the U.S. economic recovery, Romney's background makes this race a tight one.  Do I think Romney has a shot come October? No way. We still feel the same way we did in January and April... the market will be Obama's ticket to re-election.

Of course besides the countless tools and instruments this government can deploy to continue to inflate equities, they also have history on their side. Election years tend to be extremely bullish, unless your name is George W.

S&P 500 Stock Market Returns
During Election Years
Year Return Candidates
1928 43.6% Hoover vs. Smith
1932 -8.2% Roosevelt vs. Hoover
1936 33.9% Roosevelt vs. Landon
1940 -9.8% Roosevelt vs. Willkie
1944 19.7% Roosevelt vs. Dewey
1948 5.5% Truman vs. Dewey
1952 18.4% Eisenhower vs. Stevenson
1956 6.6% Eisenhower vs. Stevenson
1960 .50% Kennedy vs. Nixon
1964 16.5% Johnson vs. Goldwater
1968 11.1% Nixon vs. Humphrey
1972 19.0% Nixon vs. McGovern
1976 23.8% Carter vs. Ford
1980 32.4% Reagan vs. Carter
1984 6.3% Reagan vs. Mondale
1988 16.8% Bush vs. Dukakis
1992 7.6% Clinton vs. Bush
1996 23% Clinton vs. Dole
2000 -9.1% Bush vs. Gore
2004 10.9% Bush vs. Kerry
2008 -37% Obama vs. McCain
2012 ? Obama vs. ?

I will be playing any dip on the call side, as this market will not break into correction territory until the fall.