Tag Archives: squeeze

Ross Stores, Inc (ROST)

It seems every week there is a stock in the retail sector moving 15%+. Fossil (FOSL), Deckers Outdoor Corp (DECK), and JC Penney (JCP) all saw their shares ripped to shreds on disappointing earnings and lower outlooks. Is the economy really starting to show signs of cracking? Maybe analysts had the bar set to high? I am sure its some of those reasons and more, but there are companies that should continue to buck the trend. Ross Stores, Inc (ROST) looks like one of them. Yes, the stock is up nearly 100% yoy, but who cares. Follow the momentum.

The market speaks, sometimes you just need to listen. Take a look at the open interest on the calls and puts expiring in 2 days:

Open Interest on ROST May calls and puts : CALLS : 33,500 PUTS: 13,847

We are betting on the upside tomorrow as Ross Stores, Inc (ROST) reports earnings before the opening.

 

Disclosure: We currently hold $65 May calls.

 

Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (ANF)

 

Abercrombie & Fitch Co.(ANF) reported earnings this morning that missed estimates. The stock is currently off 11.61% at $40.10. Folks selling and shorting the stock on fundamentals, will soon learn a powerful lesson. Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (ANF) has more going for it then just it's recent earnings and we think a bounce is in the cards here intra-day.

Disclosure: We are holding $42/$43/$44/$45 May calls.

Sodastream (SODA) – pop pop fizz fizz…

 

Sodastream (SODA) is a company we have been high on for sometime and have wrote about her throughout 2012. This company has continued to produce huge results quarter after quarter, only to find the shorts holding larger and larger positions. This mornings earnings release and subsequent conference call was music to stockholders ears. Not only did they beat estimates and raise their outlook, but also announced they are finally headed into the worlds largest retailer... Walmart.

This is the news everyone was waiting for and should help keep Sodastream (SODA)'s growth story intact. We like this stock for the longer term, and think she tests $65 by the middle of the summer.

Here is what we were saying about SODA this week via our AM watchlist and chatroom:

 

SODA : old favorite that we have all played over the past few months. Thanks GMCR for scaring out some folks. SODA will beat like it has every Q, but there will be no kinks in the report this time, and stock will go $40+. Will be looking for $35/37.50s this morning for the ramp up.

 

We expect Sodastream (SODA) to be one of the stocks they will talk about at the end of 2012. Guess time will tell if we are right...

This has to be good for the market…

With the employment numbers from last week still weighing on the market, people have overlooked the news piece that will be a catalyst for the rest of the summer. Obama and Romney are now in a virtual dead heat in the polls. 

 

As you read the press, there continues to be a glaring trend:

Two new polls find that although the candidates are tied for overall support, Obama remains the more well-liked candidate and Romney is considered the more apt at handling the economy.

 

Now if the economy was still on the mend with the unemployment numbers going down, Obama was a lock for re-election. But with the increased concern about the U.S. economic recovery, Romney's background makes this race a tight one.  Do I think Romney has a shot come October? No way. We still feel the same way we did in January and April... the market will be Obama's ticket to re-election.

Of course besides the countless tools and instruments this government can deploy to continue to inflate equities, they also have history on their side. Election years tend to be extremely bullish, unless your name is George W.

S&P 500 Stock Market Returns
During Election Years
Year Return Candidates
1928 43.6% Hoover vs. Smith
1932 -8.2% Roosevelt vs. Hoover
1936 33.9% Roosevelt vs. Landon
1940 -9.8% Roosevelt vs. Willkie
1944 19.7% Roosevelt vs. Dewey
1948 5.5% Truman vs. Dewey
1952 18.4% Eisenhower vs. Stevenson
1956 6.6% Eisenhower vs. Stevenson
1960 .50% Kennedy vs. Nixon
1964 16.5% Johnson vs. Goldwater
1968 11.1% Nixon vs. Humphrey
1972 19.0% Nixon vs. McGovern
1976 23.8% Carter vs. Ford
1980 32.4% Reagan vs. Carter
1984 6.3% Reagan vs. Mondale
1988 16.8% Bush vs. Dukakis
1992 7.6% Clinton vs. Bush
1996 23% Clinton vs. Dole
2000 -9.1% Bush vs. Gore
2004 10.9% Bush vs. Kerry
2008 -37% Obama vs. McCain
2012 ? Obama vs. ?

I will be playing any dip on the call side, as this market will not break into correction territory until the fall.

Oops we did it again…

LNKD continued its ascent today, and shows how stocks can continue defy it's own fundamentals. We alerted the $67.50 Dec weekly calls @.40, on the morning pullback. LNKD then continued to surge late in the day to a high of $68.25. Our $67.50 calls went for $1.30, a nice 250% gain.

11:54 AM : Like LNKD $67.50 calls right now. Stock squeezed about 1 pm yesterday, so expecting a move up here soon.Currently .30 x .40... Very risky as they expire tomorrow, but reward can be great as well.

LNKD