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1-8-2013 Watchlist

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A great start to the week yesterday, with many runners and some nice tradeable market action. The market faded yesterday morning, then rallied back at the end of the day. Although the markets closed red, its healthy for the move higher in the coming days.

 

The ‘official’ kick-off of earnings seasons starts with Alcoa after hours which means some fun times for options and my favorite time of year... well actually quarter! Monsanto reported this morning with a huge beat and is $100 PM (had 100 calls a few weeks back that i sold! ) . SHLD had news last night on Lampert taking over as CEO and some numbers that were above estimates. At first I thought I was going to get calls, but now I am not sure as i think the stock will fade to under 40, then maybe its time to grab calls.

 

Some nice reads. Especially the GS one:

 

Goldman Saks : http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-08/secret-goldman-team-sidesteps-volcker-after-blankfein-vow.html

 

FB ~ http://techcrunch.com/2013/01/07/facebook-mobile-ad-spend/

 

 

Quite a few analyst changes and upgrades listed below to include another upgraded for FB:

 

Facebook price target raised to $34 from $32 at RW Baird

Baird raised its price target on Facebook and reiterated it positive stance citing the company's consumer leverage potential and targeted marketing opportunities. The firm raised its estimates based on the company's mobile revenues, improving ad quality, and the emerging ad/exchange network. Shares are Outperform rated.

 

(JOY)

Joy Global upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Jaffray

Piper Jaffray upgraded Joy Global on expectations coal demand in China will see a revival. Piper said it has increased confidence that FY13 will mark a trough in orders after meeting with Joy and two other companies in China's coal industry. The firm raised its price target for shares to $84 from $63.

 

(AZO)

AutoZone downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley downgraded AutoZone due to lack of EPS growth catalysts, exposure to payroll tax expiration, and slowing sales. Price target is $340.

 

(CF)

CF Industries downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at BMO Capital

BMO Capitals downgraded CF Industries due to difficult 2013 comps. Price target lowered to $225 from $235

 

(DECK)

Deckers Outdoor downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at RW Baird

Baird downgraded Deckers to reflect poor UGG performance and concerns regarding its 2013 sales outlook. Price target is $45.

 

(MGM)

MGM Resorts upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse

Credit Suisse upgraded MGM Resorts based on its improved balance sheet, Macau free cash flow, and leverage to a Strip recovery. Price target raised to $17.

 

 

I still like MCP, SODA, CALL, NFLX, SAM, ZAGG (from UPB) ,BPT, and have MAKO calls. Will possibly try to add one more time on the JAN SODA calls, then may look for March in the coming days for the move past 50.

Will watch SHLD like a hawk at the open and may try for calls if I like the action. Going to stick with what I have for now and will also look to get SAM calls. Stay tuned to chat for more possible entries and we should have a text out sometime this week.

 

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
SHLD CALL $46.00 Weekly 0.18 0.15
SHLD CALL $45.00 Weekly 0.31 0.25
SODA CALL $52.50 JAN 0.35 0.35
SAM CALL $155.00 FEB 0.65 0.40

 

 

Lets have a great day!

 

- Jimmybob

1-7-2013 Watchlist

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Seems like quite a bit of activity this morning on the analyst side with tons of new initiations and upgrades to include my favorite SODA. Seems analysts starting to take that stock serious. All the banks are higher once again this morning with BAC also announcing a settlement with Fannie Mae: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/b-of-a-selltes-with-fannie-for-about-10-billion-2013-01-07 . It is getting received well from the market and BAC is up 3% PM. We spoke about it last night, but BANKs maybe continue to move higher on news that they will have 2 more years to comply with Dodd-Frank : http://thinkprogress.org/economy/2013/01/04/1400491/banks-delay-risky-trade-rule/?mobile=nc As well as the prospect of higher interest rates coming sooner rather then later. Not playing any, as I usually don’t do well trading the banks, but JPM, GS, BAC, WFC, and others may outperform the market here in January.

 

The Week Ahead Webinar from last night will be uploaded and available in the forums later today.

 

Also remember the unofficial start of earnings season is tomorrow with Alcoa reporting.

 

Here are some of the upgrades that I am watching from this morning:

 

(AMZN)

Amazon.com upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley believes Amazon.com's fulfillment network is under-appreciated and will allow the company to drive share gains and its international opportunity. Price target is $325.

 

SodaStream initiated with an Overweight at Barclays

Target $55.

 

(UA)

Under Armour downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley downgraded Under Armour to reflect reduced margin upside and potential margin pressure.

 

(BIDU)

Baidu downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays

Barclays downgraded Baidu based on earnings risk near-term from iQiyi consolidation, higher TAC costs, and increased R&D, lack of visibility on its mobile strategy, and Qihoo search monetization which will increase traffic fees. Price target lowered to $113 from $137.

 

 

News that may move NFLX this morning:

 

(NFLX+)

Netflix, Warner Bros. sign 2012-2013 network slate deal 

Netflix (NFLX) and Warner Bros. Television Group (TWX) announced a licensing agreement allowing U.S. Netflix members to enjoy complete previous seasons of addictive serialized dramas produced by Warner Bros. for top broadcast and cable networks.

 

Futures are slightly lower here and would expect the market to hold to small losses or small gains throughout the day.

 

I will have my thoughts on Gold and Silver this week, as I think both are headed lower(which actually makes no sense but I will explain)

 

Here are the strikes I am watching for open:

 

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
MAKO CALL $15.00 JAN 0.15 0.15
NFLX CALL $105.00 Weekly 0.36 0.40
BPT CALL $80.00 JAN 0.30 0.30
SAM CALL $155.00 FEB 0.65 0.65

 

 

 

Rarely average down but think MAKO hit a bottom friday and will try for some $15 calls @ .15. NFLX had WB news this morning may help push above top end, think $100+ coming very soon.

Still love BPT and may add to my $80 calls if they are still .25 x .30 at open. Have  SAM FEB 155s already and may do what I am doing with MAKO.

 

Have a great trading day!

 

- Jimmybob

1-3-2013 Watchlist

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What an amazingly strong trading session yesterday, as the market gapped at the open, faded a bit then ramped hard into the close to finish at the high of the day. The SPY closed over $146 and we are now a stone throws away from 4 year highs at $148.11. Still sticking to my $150 on the SPY short term, and would think we may get it before January is out. The $PY chart looks over extended, as do most charts from Monday and Wednesdays market rampage.

I wont be buying puts, but I will be a little more cautious on the call side the next few days. Obviously one of the reasons I like SODA, CALL, and MAKO for January is that they tend to ignore the overall market and can trade up on a down day.

We did have ADP number out this morning that beat expectations by a wide margins, and futures are now flat after being down overnight and this morning. It also looks like Analysts are back to work and catching up as there were many upgrades/downgrades this morning.

Look like Stern Agee and JMP Securities upgraded every financial stock.

PCLN was upgraded at BAC.

MLNX lowered revenue guidance substantially and is down 16% pre-market.

Same Store Sale numbers are out for retailers. The numbers were expected to be weak. Looks like ROST, COST, TGT were some of the winners. M lowered guidance but is hanging in on better DEC #’s.

Here are some of the analyst Upgrades/Downgrades:

 

(PCLN)

priceline.com upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA/Merrill

BofA/Merrill upgraded priceline.com (PCLN) due to strong growth in international, expectations for a modest European recovery in 2H 2013, Kayak acquisition opportunities, and potential earnings upside vs. Expedia (EXPE). Price target raised to $770 from $690.

 

 

(BAC)

Bank of America upgraded to Market Perform from Underperform at JMP Securities

JMP Securities upgraded several names in the Capital Markets space following the partial fiscal cliff resolution. The firm believes earnings from the large banks should now be better and upgraded shares of Bank of America to Market Perform.

 

 

Will be playing a few again today. Still love $SODA and will add any dips. Here are the strikes I am looking at:

 

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price
CALL CALL $22.50 JAN 0.15
BPT CALL $80.00 JAN 0.15
WYNN CALL $120.00 Weekly 0.34

 

 

 

Already have BPT 75 calls from yesterday and will add some 80s if it looks like the reversal continues. Stock has a 13%+ divy yield and has been beaten down into submission. If you followed the watchlist and chatroom, you know I have been waiting for this bounce for a few weeks. Think CALL continues its move and will add more 22.50s to my stockpile while they are still .15. CALL will go over $20 and it will allow me to lock some of the 20 calls in. WYNN chart looks very toppy but think it surges over $120 sometime today, already have 120 calls and may look to add more at the open.

 

As always stay tuned in chat and twitter for updates. In 2013 I will try to give more transparency around exit strategies as most times buying is the easy part, and finding a place to sell is the hard part.

 

Lets have a great day 2 in 2013!

 

- Jimmybob

1-2-2013 Watchlist

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Like I said Monday, all is well for 2013! The Fiscal Bluff has been averted and the markets are not tanking as most pundits predicted/warned. What a joke the market is. All the big money was away Friday, as retail sold the markets off at the end of the day and in the afterhours on low volume. Then Monday the big money comes back and the market ramps higher all day, even surprising myself somewhat. All the folks betting on fear via the vix and buying puts, were screwed, and are waking up today with a kick in the ‘you know what’

 

As I write this, the futures are up nearly 2% and the SPY is getting close to the Dec 19th high of 145.57 and only a stone throw away from 4 year highs. It would be hard for me to imagine the market ramping even higher today, but anything is possible. I will be a bit wary and will probably stick to my core holdings at the open.

 

I will have a write-up on my top 3 picks for January sometime today. One of them is CALL and I wrote about her last night: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2013/the-call-to-start-2013/

 

Check out the week ahead with UPB and myself last night : https://www.optionmillionaires.com/forum/showthread.php/206-The-Week-Ahead-with-UPB-and-JImmy-1-1-13?p=387#post387

 

Analysts seem to be back finally after a 5 day hiatus. Here are some of the Up and Downgrades for today:

 

U.S. Steel upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse

Credit Suisse believes U.S. Steel's earnings are at a trough and that the company will benefit from improving auto sales, a potential recovery in Tubular results, and the Fiscal Cliff resolution. Price target raised to $30 from $20

 

(LNKD)

LinkedIn downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays

Barclays downgraded Linkedin based on valuation. Price target remains $125.

 

Bank of America added to Conviction Buy List at Evercore

Shares are Overweight rated.

 

(BIDU+)

Qihoo search monetization to challenge Baidu, says Citigroup

Citigroup says that on December 31, Qihoo (QIHU) started to place paid links next to its natural search results, indicating the start of the company's search monetizing. Citi thinks Qihoo's monetization could expand its search market share in 2013, presenting possible downside risks to Baidu's (BIDU) dominance. Citi keeps a Sell rating on Biadu with a $95.10 price target.

 

(TRIP+)

TripAdvisor price target raised to $50 from $44 at Stifel Nicolaus

Stifel Nicolaus raised its target on TripAdvisor (TRIP) as the firm believes that recent acquisitions of other travel metasearch sites illustrate the high value of TripAdvisor. The firm believes that the risk posed to TripAdvisor by Google (GOOG) is overblown, and it views Liberty Interactive's (LINTA) decision to increase its stake in TripAdvisor as a vote of confidence in that company which removes the overhang of a potential large sale. The firm maintains a Buy rating on TripAdvisor.

 

 

I am not playing any of those, but may help in your trading today.

 

Here are a few of the strikes I am look at for the open:

 

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
CALL CALL $20.00 JAN 0.45 0.45
MAKO CALL $15.00 JAN 0.20 0.25
MOS CALL $62.50 JAN 0.19 0.25

 

 

Again, you need to be very careful drinking the kool-aid on some of these, as the premiums will probably decline after the open and you will be in the red even when the stock is up. I have a feeling we fade a bit the rest of the day. The market is near the top end, and will need another day or two of consolidation before we head over the 146 area on the SPY. I maybe wrong, but thats what I a playing for.

 

Stocks like SODA, MAKO, and CALL allow you to bank gains irregardless of the overall market, which is why i like them for Jan and the start of 2013.

 

Lets have a great trading day and see you in the chatroom!

 

- Jimmybob

12-31 Watchlist

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Fridays close, and todays open is a great example how this market works now-a-days, and how the retail traders is always screwed. If you had bought puts or went short on the fiscal cliff fiasco and were holding them into the weekend, you would have been ecstatic after seeing the mayhem after hours friday. The VIX was up huge, and the SPY was down another 1% after it looked like a deal would not be made as Obama was “holding tight” on his tax the rich mantra.

Then over the weekend all I see are reports saying “major impasse” on cliff negotiations and negative chatter. Again, all this points to carnage come Monday, yet here we are 45 minutes before the open, and the market has recouped all the losses from friday after hours, and may head higher here at the open.

 

All the folks holding puts over the weekend for the sure fire winners, are now staring at theta burn. Makes no sense, but again I think this cliff BS is so over worked now, that we would be 10-15% lower from here if the cliff posed a “CLIFF’ to the economy. Unless we get some unforeseen event, like a US credit downgrade, all will be well to start 2013.

 

Not many upgrades or market catalysts today, so maybe a quiet trading session and will look to add one or two positions and wait for wednesday. Facebook did garner attention over the weekend and this morning with 2 bullish upgrades:

 

 

(FB)

Facebook price target raised to $31 from $26 at Stifel Nicolaus

Stifel Nicolaus raised its price target on Facebook as the firm expects the stock to be boosted by index fund purchasing, upcoming monetization initiatives, and higher ARPU. The firm expects the company's earnings to beat expectations and it maintains a Buy rating.

 

Follow-up: Facebook upgraded to Outperform from Underperform at BMO Capital

BMO Capital reinstated coverage on Facebook and upgraded shares two notches to Outperform from Underperform. The analyst is positive on Facebook's re-acceleration in ad spending for both mobile and video ads, increased native monetization of content, and notes positive feedback for Costume Audiences. Price target raised to $32 from $15.

 

FB article in WSJ : http://professional.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323635504578211581469158650.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection

 

AAPL also had positive press in Barrons this weekend and is looking good pre-market.

 

I still love SODA as my favorite call position. I am holding 20/22.50 CALL calls and will add more if they are cheap at the open. I never added SOHU calls last week as I had posted in my watchlist, but will get some at the open today. CHINA PMI highest since May 11, so China ADR’s may get a nice bid today again: http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2012/12/30/business/30reuters-china-pmi-hsbc-final.html?src=busln&_r=0

 

Here are the strikes im watching:

 

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price
CALL CALL $20.00 JAN 0.45
SOHU CALL $52.50 JAN 0.25
SOHU CALL $50.00 JAN 0.55

 

 

UPB will be dong the year ahead tomorrow night (New Years Day). Link will be posted here https://www.optionmillionaires.com/live-event-classes-jtv/

 

Lets have a great last day of 2012 and HAPPY NEW YEAR EVERYONE!!

- Jimmybob