Quarter 2 started out in the red with the SPY down .40%. The VIX closed up 7% and closed at 13.58. I still think the VIX sees sub $10 in the next few months despite all the folks clamoring for a pullback. Historically Quarter 2 is the worst quarter for the market in recent years, and has seen 5%+ pullbacks in the last few years, where Quarter 1 and 4 have been green, and Quarter 3 has been flat.
Today we have have sales numbers for GM and F as well as Factory orders. Everyone will also continue to focus on the job numbers coming friday.
Bought the SODA April 55 calls @ .30/.35 yesterday and alerted the trade via the text alert system. As promised, will try and have an update on the blog soon after the alert goes out, so folks have an idea on the reasoning and strategy : https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2013/trade-via-text-alert-today/
The only other trade I made yesterday was buying the NFLX 200 calls @ .32 later in the day. Still think NFLX treks over $200 sometime soon, and will continue to place bets on it when i can.
Here are the analyst changes today:
SNDK SanDisk recommended into Q1 reporta at Nomura
Nomura would be a buyer of Sandisk into the Q1 report as it expects a beat and raise in full year revenue and margin guidance due to pricing strength and the weak Yen. Share are Buy rated with a $60 price target.
TXN Texas Instruments downgraded to Hold from Buy at Stifel
Stifel downgraded Texas Instruments as the firm believes that the company's orders have slowed recently.
NDAQ NASDAQ downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Evercore
FFIV F5 Networks upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at RW Baird
Baird upgraded F5 Networks following positive checks that indicate healthy demand in core markets, traction in Security, a new product cycle, and valuation. Price target is $110.
AAPL iPhone profits likely peaked in 2012, says Jefferies
Jefferies said its global analysis of smartphone markets indicated that profits for Apple's (AAPL) iPhone likely peaked in 2012. The firm concluded that most worldwide smartphone growth going forward will come at prices below $200 per phone, suggesting a low-cost iPhone at $350-$450 may not be cheap enough. Jefferies sees risk to its 2014 earnings estimates for Apple, which it points out are already 20% below consensus expectations. The firm has a Hold rating on shares of Apple with a $420 price target.
BWLD Buffalo Wild Wings initiated with a Neutral at Credit Suisse
LNKD LinkedIn initiated with a Neutral at UBS
GOOG Google initiated with a Buy at UBS
AAPL Apple downgraded to Buy from Conviction Buy at Goldman
Goldman removed Apple from its Conviction Buy List and said the recent product cycle hasn't resulted in as much new user growth or market share as it had anticipated. The firm sees considerable uncertainty regarding the impact of new product refreshes and believes it will be difficult to meet March and June quarter Street expectations. The analyst maintains Apple's Buy rating and reduced its price target to $575 from $660.
Will be watching a few at open. Still haven’t added a position in OPEN calls yet, and will look again today. Corn prices continue to fall, and hit limit down for a bit on Monday. Folks used the higher corn prices in the past, as a reason to sell CMG so think this actually maybe a catalyst for a move higher. Here is the link to the WSJ article: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324883604578396592983643754.html . Its actually about farmers swtiching from rice to corn and soybeans, but speaks to decrease in corn prices. Also, CMG bollinger bands are getting tight, which is usually a good indicator of a larger move coming (whether up or down). Last, but not least, will try for FFIV calls one more time. Upgraded today and like i said 2 weeks ago, she is ready to bounce in a major way.
Here are the strikes on watch today:
|Stock Ticker||Call/Put||Strike||Expiration||Closing Price||Entry Price|
Stay tuned to twitter and chat for any update.
Lets have a great day!