Tag Archives: puts

4-2-2013 Watch List



Quarter 2 started out in the red with the SPY down .40%. The VIX closed up 7% and closed at 13.58. I still think the VIX sees sub $10 in the next few months despite all the folks clamoring for a pullback. Historically Quarter 2 is the worst quarter for the market in recent years, and has seen 5%+ pullbacks in the last few years, where Quarter 1 and 4 have been green, and Quarter 3 has been flat.


Today we have have sales numbers for GM and F as well as Factory orders. Everyone will also continue to focus on the job numbers coming friday.


Bought the SODA April 55 calls @ .30/.35 yesterday and alerted the trade via the text alert system. As promised, will try and have an update on the blog soon after the alert goes out, so folks have an idea on the reasoning and strategy : https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2013/trade-via-text-alert-today/


The only other trade I made yesterday was buying the NFLX 200 calls @ .32 later in the day. Still think NFLX treks over $200 sometime soon, and will continue to place bets on it when i can.


Here are the analyst changes today:


SNDK SanDisk recommended into Q1 reporta at Nomura

Nomura would be a buyer of Sandisk into the Q1 report as it expects a beat and raise in full year revenue and margin guidance due to pricing strength and the weak Yen. Share are Buy rated with a $60 price target.

TXN Texas Instruments downgraded to Hold from Buy at Stifel

Stifel downgraded Texas Instruments as the firm believes that the company's orders have slowed recently.

NDAQ NASDAQ downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Evercore

FFIV F5 Networks upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at RW Baird

Baird upgraded F5 Networks following positive checks that indicate healthy demand in core markets, traction in Security, a new product cycle, and valuation. Price target is $110.

AAPL iPhone profits likely peaked in 2012, says Jefferies

Jefferies said its global analysis of smartphone markets indicated that profits for Apple's (AAPL) iPhone likely peaked in 2012. The firm concluded that most worldwide smartphone growth going forward will come at prices below $200 per phone, suggesting a low-cost iPhone at $350-$450 may not be cheap enough. Jefferies sees risk to its 2014 earnings estimates for Apple, which it points out are already 20% below consensus expectations. The firm has a Hold rating on shares of Apple with a $420 price target.

BWLD Buffalo Wild Wings initiated with a Neutral at Credit Suisse

Target $92.

LNKD LinkedIn initiated with a Neutral at UBS

Target $180.

GOOG Google initiated with a Buy at UBS

Target $945.

AAPL Apple downgraded to Buy from Conviction Buy at Goldman

Goldman removed Apple from its Conviction Buy List and said the recent product cycle hasn't resulted in as much new user growth or market share as it had anticipated. The firm sees considerable uncertainty regarding the impact of new product refreshes and believes it will be difficult to meet March and June quarter Street expectations. The analyst maintains Apple's Buy rating and reduced its price target to $575 from $660.



Will be watching a few at open. Still haven’t added a position in OPEN calls yet, and will look again today. Corn prices continue to fall, and hit limit down for a bit on Monday. Folks used the higher corn prices in the past, as a reason to sell CMG so think this actually maybe a catalyst for a move higher. Here is the link to the WSJ article: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324883604578396592983643754.html . Its actually about farmers swtiching from rice to corn and soybeans, but speaks to decrease in corn prices. Also, CMG bollinger bands are getting tight, which is usually a good indicator of a larger move coming (whether up or down). Last, but not least, will try for FFIV calls one more time. Upgraded today and like i said 2 weeks ago, she is ready to bounce in a major way.


Here are the strikes on watch today:



Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
OPEN CALL $70.00 April 0.25 0.30
CMG CALL $335.00 Weekly 0.35 0.35
FFIV CALL $92.50 Weekly 0.18 0.30



Stay tuned to twitter and chat for any update.


Lets have a great day!


- JB

1-25-2013 Watchlist


What another great day yesterday with NFLX really making some folks day, month, year and TZOO ramping in the morning. Looking forward to today, but will be a bit more cautious on some of the weeklies expiring today and will play maybe a few.


That conference in Davos is filled with headlines and bullish comments from everyone but my Grandmother, who is on the ski slopes. It almost shakes me from my short term bullishness. If these folks are bullish, they are already in equities or are maybe they are charitable folks who give the retail traders the heads up, lets us get in, then start buying. Most of these funds are in the market, its the retail sheep who have been shaken out of it. And conferences like this, with bullish remarks written all over it, is the way they will get the sheep back in the corral for slaughter. When there is noone left to buy because everyone is in is when this market falls. AAPL is a great example of that. More on this sometime soon!


Draghi issued some more bullish comments on the eurozone mess, and Japan nikkei ripped over 2% higher over night, nearing 11,000. Worst thing you can do is try and time the top and get in the way of these bulls. For now I play the trend. We battled 150 on the SPY yesterday and looks to be a battle area again today.


Not too many analyst changes today, below are the ones i like to include ADSK’s second upgrade in 2 days, with GS putting her on the conviction buy list.




Starbucks global comp sales beat expectations, says Bernstein

Bernstein reports that Starbucks' 7% global comparative sales increase in its Q1 beat expectations for a 5.5% gain. The firm thinks the company's channel development sales will likely re accelerate in coming quarters and it maintains a $65 price target and Outperform rating on the shares


Starbucks PT lifted to $56 share fr. $55: Barclays



Starbucks price target raised to $63 from $53 at RBC Capital

After Starbucks reported in-line Q1 results, RBC Capital believes that the company's sales momentum has continued in Q2. The firm thinks that the company's earnings visibility is high, and that it has several growth drivers. But RBC believes these factors are baked into the stock price and it maintains a Sector Perform rating on the stock


Autodesk upgraded to Conviction Buy from Sell at Goldman

Goldman upgraded Autodesk to Conviction Buy from Sell due to improved execution and an acceleration in non-residential construction end-markets. The firm believes Suite revenue will accelerate due to improved macro trends. Price target raised to $45 from $25


Nomura maintains priceline.com Incorporated (NASDAQ: PCLN) with a Buy and raises the price target from $730.00 to $820.00


SBUX and VRSN reported good earnings ah’s and both should ramp higher. I love SAM and here is my write up as promised: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2013/boston-beer-co-inc-sam-crafting-profits-for-shareholders/


I am holding weekly calls on PCLN, GOOG, NFLX, and SINA. The SINA 60s I sold at .7 for a 75% haircut and i have 62.50s expiring worthless. I still love SHLD and will try for some calls sometime today or monday. Here are the few strikes I am looking at today:



Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
PCLN CALL $690.00 Weekly 0.65 0.50
PCLN CALL $695.00 Weekly 0.30 0.25
GOOG CALL $760.00 Weekly 0.95 0.50
SHLD CALL $52.50 FEB 0.35 0.30



As always we will be holding our week ahead webinar at 10:30pm Sunday, and hope to see you there!


Lets have a great day!


- jimmybob

Baidu (BIDU) – Wall Street Darling No More

Today officially marks the end of Baidu (BIDU) as the once loved wall-street darling that rose 1000%+ from the 2008 collapse... at least in my book. It used to be a stock every hedge fund owned and every analyst had buy ratings with lofty price targets. Today Credit Suisse downgraded the stock and reduced it's price target from $118 to $83, which is the lowest price target on the stock right now. I think that will change as analysts will continue the trend of downgrading the stock on competition and market share concerns.

Folks bearish on the stock have been raising their bets on future downside, as 8,494,038 shares are currently short and is an increase of over 1 million shares from the month before. I expect that to increase 3-4 fold in the coming weeks.

We are betting on a quick move under $100 for Baidu(BIDU) this week, as the selling pressure increases and shorters continue to increase their bets. We currently hold the 100/95 weekly puts and the October 20th puts. Baidu(BIDU) can be a very volatile stock, so be prepared for some wild swings here but to me it looks like the 3 week battle of bull vs bear has been decided with a decisive victory coming from the Bears here shortly.

Baidu is trading at $106.32 as we write this.



Another October day, another green open. Whether that stays or not is the question. Seems like every rip has been sold off, and every sell-off has been bought. Today brought the ADP employment numbers which were above expectations. There is still some concerns over Spain and we have the Presidential Debate tonight. Looks like the race became tighter past few days from 5pts to 3pts. Remember, uncertainty is not good for the market.  Something to keep an eye on.

We had some nice plays so far and want to give it up for MIKEY and others who were all over CMG in the chatroom yesterday on the bounce. Plays like that can make your week or month!

RetiredMM also had some nice plays on AAPL PUTS then AAPL CALLS as well as MOS puts. Well done!

Lets keep making some coin!

I did have a DUD with MOS calls at the open...

This morning we have NFLX being reiterated as a buy at CITI with $120 Price Target. The stock is currently $58.70 PM and i think the catalysts are now in place for $60+ this week. Been banging the table since monday so hope you grabbed some of the 57.50s and 60 calls.

FDO was one posted by UPB and spoken about in his week ahead. They reported some good earnings this morning and the stock is up nicely pre-market.

Only watching a few for entry today:

$LNKD continues to look to break out and thing finally gets over $120+ today.

$NFLX will look to take advantage if stock breaks $60

$MON think folks will bid her up, was wrong with MOS so maybe right on this one.

Positions looking at: $LNKD $125s C | $NFLX $62.50 C | $MON $95 OCT 20 C


Stocks on watch: PCLN, SINA, BIDU, MLNX, AAPL, CMG, ISRG


Lets have a great day folks!!!

- Jimmybob

Baidu (BIDU) – Bounce?

With the majority of earnings behind us, it can become challenging to find some volatile plays to make some money on. Pick the wrong trade and you will watch your premium erode. Finding stocks at the top or the bottom of a trend can be the best way to bank some coin.

Baidu (BIDU) fell over the past two weeks from possible competition for it's 80% share in the China Internet Search market. Qihoo 360Technology Inc. (QIHU) announced it was launching its own search engine, and analysts have estimated it could capture nearly 10% of the market shares in just 6 months, causing the decline in shares of Baidu (BIDU).

It looks like Baidu (BIDU) found a bottom at $111 last week, and is starting to bounce. We like the 50DMA and 200DMA as possible resistance points on the way up. We still like the Baidu (BIDU) story and hold the weekly $120 calls @ .25.