Tag Archives: obama

This has to be good for the market…

With the employment numbers from last week still weighing on the market, people have overlooked the news piece that will be a catalyst for the rest of the summer. Obama and Romney are now in a virtual dead heat in the polls. 


As you read the press, there continues to be a glaring trend:

Two new polls find that although the candidates are tied for overall support, Obama remains the more well-liked candidate and Romney is considered the more apt at handling the economy.


Now if the economy was still on the mend with the unemployment numbers going down, Obama was a lock for re-election. But with the increased concern about the U.S. economic recovery, Romney's background makes this race a tight one.  Do I think Romney has a shot come October? No way. We still feel the same way we did in January and April... the market will be Obama's ticket to re-election.

Of course besides the countless tools and instruments this government can deploy to continue to inflate equities, they also have history on their side. Election years tend to be extremely bullish, unless your name is George W.

S&P 500 Stock Market Returns
During Election Years
Year Return Candidates
1928 43.6% Hoover vs. Smith
1932 -8.2% Roosevelt vs. Hoover
1936 33.9% Roosevelt vs. Landon
1940 -9.8% Roosevelt vs. Willkie
1944 19.7% Roosevelt vs. Dewey
1948 5.5% Truman vs. Dewey
1952 18.4% Eisenhower vs. Stevenson
1956 6.6% Eisenhower vs. Stevenson
1960 .50% Kennedy vs. Nixon
1964 16.5% Johnson vs. Goldwater
1968 11.1% Nixon vs. Humphrey
1972 19.0% Nixon vs. McGovern
1976 23.8% Carter vs. Ford
1980 32.4% Reagan vs. Carter
1984 6.3% Reagan vs. Mondale
1988 16.8% Bush vs. Dukakis
1992 7.6% Clinton vs. Bush
1996 23% Clinton vs. Dole
2000 -9.1% Bush vs. Gore
2004 10.9% Bush vs. Kerry
2008 -37% Obama vs. McCain
2012 ? Obama vs. ?

I will be playing any dip on the call side, as this market will not break into correction territory until the fall.

Obama doesn’t need a re-election campaign, he needs a bull market.

What  put a Democrat in the White House in 2008, will keep him there for one more term. What would that be? The Stock Market. The thing that has been on a furious rally since the SPY painted $107 in October. Coincidence, I think not? Are things really that much better in the U.S and abroad to warrant a 30% move in equities since October? I guess the better question is, "who is the one bidding up stocks?". It sure isn't Blue Collar "Joe" who is currently underwater on his mortgage.  It sure isn't the mutual funds, where there were $135 BILLION in outlflows in 2011.

A picture comes to mind, the one during the cold war where the president has the "red button" ready in his office at the white house, just waiting for any sign of incoming warheads from Russia. 30 Years later, there is another button he pushes.... the one to avert financial disaster and employ the plunge protection team to do it's deed.


It was seen in the markets during the 2008 crisis, although it's existence is denied. Great read (here). Now it's called the "Save the President" team. Nothing excites the public more then easy money. Just take a look at what the Mega-Millions did this past week. It was a frenzy. Too bad the average Joe didn't realize how easy the market would be to trade the past few months. All anyone with a brain needed to do was buy calls on anything with a pulse.

We wrote about the BEARS trying to come out of the closet last month. Now with the Bears in hibernation, the powers that be are ready to keep this ramp going until Obama is in for re-election. Healthcare? The National Debt? Iraq and Afganistan? Do any of these issues really matter? Not when your 401k is a 401k again. Not when the old homage an "Apple a day keep the doctor away "makes you smile.

You think Obama is actually concerned about his re-election? He is in full control of this manipulated campaign. I wouldn't be surprised if his campaign funds are leveraged 1000X's on index futures.

It reminds me of a Soprano's episode. Yeah we have the jury, just wait till they let me go.  Russia is in on the deal... joke is on us.

Point being, sometimes you have to trade the trade and forget about everything else. Is the marker manipulated?? Who cares. Should we be trading much lower??? Who cares. The powers that be are controlling this right now, so trade accordingly. We have, so thank you Obama and this artificial pump. You may not be a good president, but you sure know how to pump stocks!