May 22nd Watchlist
What a great day yesterday, as the market shook off an opening drop and ramped up the rest of the day. Moves like that are the kind that options traders dream for… One directional! We haven’t had that in a few weeks, and most of the calls purchased Friday or at the open, were up big. Of course AAPL was the big winner as the 565 strikes were the most profitable trade. Lets see if AAPL continues its course, but remember to always lock some in on the way up and never look back!
Sina Corporation (SINA) has been an Optionmillionaires favorite over the past few months.There is nothing that an option trader likes more than a volatile stock, and SINA Corporation (SINA) sure fits the bill. SINA Corporation (SINA) reported earnings after hours, and the stock rose nearly 7%. Folks were expecting a loss, which they got, but revenue was above expectations. With all the bad press as of late, it was almost a relief that SINA Corporation (SINA) expects to still generate revenues with the China censorship crackdown.
It's one of the reasons we think there will be some serious upside upgrades tomorrow. SINA Corporation (SINA) pulled in just over $100 mil in revenues for the past quarter, yet has over 300 million users of its twitter like service. If they are able to just pull in $.50-$1 per user, they will experience some SERIOUS growth. Smart "Growth Companies" sacrifice short term profits, for long term growth. Looks like Sina CEO Charles Chao is continuing to do that, which is great news in our opinion:
Sina CEO Charles Chao said: "China's macroeconomic weakness in the first quarter the Company's brand advertising business growth moderate. We expect the macroeconomic aspects of the resistance will continue until the second quarter, however, we have begun to test the water micro- Bo brand advertising business. this advertising product recommendation engine driven by the map-based social interest, is expected to be in the second half of the year for our brand advertising business real impact. the current the microblogging advertisers preliminary feedback is encouraging, we believe that to continue major investment is necessary for social media and related projects. "
Of course there are the folks looking at the news release tonight seeing this headline:
The market is forward looking, and think this view is very short sighted. With the penetration they have, in a market with few competitors, I think SINA has much more upside then folks are giving her.I guess we will see tomorrow. Here is what we were saying on our watchlist this morning and monday:
SINA – 60 calls before the close for me, think earnings will not be too good, but the outlook and china restrictions will be the key.
SINA – reports this week as well, with RENN. Hard to figure, but I still like SINA. Not sure of the strikes yet and may wait till Tuesday AM.
Happy Trading!!
Disclosure: we hold $57.50 and $60 MAY calls
With the employment numbers from last week still weighing on the market, people have overlooked the news piece that will be a catalyst for the rest of the summer. Obama and Romney are now in a virtual dead heat in the polls.
As you read the press, there continues to be a glaring trend:
Two new polls find that although the candidates are tied for overall support, Obama remains the more well-liked candidate and Romney is considered the more apt at handling the economy.
Now if the economy was still on the mend with the unemployment numbers going down, Obama was a lock for re-election. But with the increased concern about the U.S. economic recovery, Romney's background makes this race a tight one. Do I think Romney has a shot come October? No way. We still feel the same way we did in January and April... the market will be Obama's ticket to re-election.
Of course besides the countless tools and instruments this government can deploy to continue to inflate equities, they also have history on their side. Election years tend to be extremely bullish, unless your name is George W.
| S&P 500 Stock Market Returns During Election Years |
||
| Year | Return | Candidates |
| 1928 | 43.6% | Hoover vs. Smith |
| 1932 | -8.2% | Roosevelt vs. Hoover |
| 1936 | 33.9% | Roosevelt vs. Landon |
| 1940 | -9.8% | Roosevelt vs. Willkie |
| 1944 | 19.7% | Roosevelt vs. Dewey |
| 1948 | 5.5% | Truman vs. Dewey |
| 1952 | 18.4% | Eisenhower vs. Stevenson |
| 1956 | 6.6% | Eisenhower vs. Stevenson |
| 1960 | .50% | Kennedy vs. Nixon |
| 1964 | 16.5% | Johnson vs. Goldwater |
| 1968 | 11.1% | Nixon vs. Humphrey |
| 1972 | 19.0% | Nixon vs. McGovern |
| 1976 | 23.8% | Carter vs. Ford |
| 1980 | 32.4% | Reagan vs. Carter |
| 1984 | 6.3% | Reagan vs. Mondale |
| 1988 | 16.8% | Bush vs. Dukakis |
| 1992 | 7.6% | Clinton vs. Bush |
| 1996 | 23% | Clinton vs. Dole |
| 2000 | -9.1% | Bush vs. Gore |
| 2004 | 10.9% | Bush vs. Kerry |
| 2008 | -37% | Obama vs. McCain |
| 2012 | ? | Obama vs. ? |
I will be playing any dip on the call side, as this market will not break into correction territory until the fall.
We wrote about PCLN on December 14th, 2011, as a bounce play and continued to like it going into 2012, as Cramer added it to his "Pigs gets slaughtered list"(We wrote about that here). Going against Cramer is like bagging the promo queen... We wish we could do it, and when we finally do, didn't realize it would be that easy!
PCLN has ERUPTED from its 445.73 "Cramer Bottom" and hit $526 last week, an $80+ move. Even more spectacular, is the potential profits one can make on a move like this trading the options. We recommended the $505 JAN 21st calls asking .85 on Tuesday Jan 17th(READ HERE). Those calls hit a high of $22. So $85 into $2200 potential for each call purchased. Can we thank you enough Cramer?
Check it out as we brought this to out chat room first and we were the first on the planet to buy those calls on Jan 17th:
This is why we trade options, and hope we can continue bringing this type of trading opportunities to our trading community!
So those LNKD Calls we alerted @ .20 on Wednesday morning, hit $4.80 friday morning. So thats would be $200 into $4800 into 48 hours. Now i would call that a pretty good week for folks.