Tag Archives: BEARS

Priceline.com(PCLN)

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We have chronicled the move of Priceline.com(PCLN) over the past few months. We have been one of the few public Bulls on this stock. While everyone was calling for a sell-off, we were buying calls. You can read some of them (here).

We noted on Monday how the past two week sell-off was a much needed enema. All the momentum stocks were taken to the woodshed... PCLN included. This market is not for the normal retail trader, as this would be the person who thinks Priceline.com(PCLN) is  overbought, and is set for a massive sell-off(which folks have been clamoring for since $400). Right now is the time for the trader with the steel balls, unfazed by the volatility, to grab calls on Priceline.com(PCLN).

 

As we write this, the stock is trading at $728. We fully expect a break of $750+ this week, as the upside resistance has been removed(thats right you chickens).

As Yogi Berra would day, "It's DeJaVu all over again!"

 

Heads I win, Tails you lose…

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Ever wonder how Houdini escapes from sure death? How Hulk Hogan wins the WWF championship? How Janet Jackson's nipple falls out of her bra during the superbowl?

The outcome is fixed. There aren't many certain things in life, and many people would say the only two things you can count on are death and taxes. I beg to differ. Death...Taxes... and a manipulated stock market.

Take tomorrow's over-hyped employment numbers. Do you think the numbers will actually have an impact one way or the other? If you say yes, then how?

So the numbers come in above expectations. What happens? The market will rally on the continued improvement in the U.S. economy.

The numbers come in below expectations. What happens? The market will rally(after a quick drop) because folks will buy on the hope of renewed interest in QE3.

Heads I win(bulls), Tails you lose(bears).

It's only when the last penny is in the hands of the Bears, that we will get any serious downside to this market. Will it be the summer? Maybe the fall during the elections? Who knows, but you have to trade what you see, and right now it's a market hell bent on making new highs.

 

Coming out of the closet

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"Coming out of the closet!" - well that would be the BEARS today. Not the Chicago Bears, or the Bad News Bears, but the market BEARS. The ones who have been trying to time the next market correction since December and SPY $115. Now imagine what your portfolio looks like when you have been short as the market has ramped up 15%. It sure must look UGLY. But today is your day to cheer and gloat... to say "I told you so!".

Go out and get a drink. Party likes it's 2008. You deserve it. A hard earned victory. Your battle against the limitless coffers of the world's government's was yours today. The QE1 and QE2 are ships sailing on the atlantic now.  Operation Twist? Isn't that a game you play with a few friend when you are drunk?

You knew it was only a matter of time before the weight of Greece and the eurozone debt problems took hold. China reducing it's GDP outlook to 7.5%? That was the icing on the cake. The Black Swan event is only around the corner. You've been betting on the short side since you saw this guy say the market will crash.

It's about time your insight, foresight, and intuition proved you right. It's evil work being a bear. Now you just need a 20% move to the downside to get back to even...

Only problem is, this government will not let that happen. Not when the president is waging his battle for re-election. Not when the battle of the economy is fully in his control. Should this market be up 30% from it's October lows? No way... but trading on the macro environment alone will only turn your portfolio red. Go ask any BEAR.

It will be time to head back into hibernation soon. Today was only tease. Another reason for the bears to throw money into a false hope of a correction.

I guess we shall see what the next few weeks bring, but I am guessing we start working towards $140 on the SPY.