Tag Archives: amzn

1-9-2013 Watchlist

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Yesterday was a somewhat lackluster day with a few movers. SHLD was a nice play on the put side at the open, and HLF ramped higher during the day on the calls side. Alcoa kicked off the official start to earning season by posting a profit and decent numbers. Futures are green and looks like we have a nice day today.

 

Skulcandy is up on a piece on marketwatch: SKUL possible Takeover? http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-09/skullcandy-turns-takeover-target-after-66-drop-real-m-a.html

 

Tons of analyst upgrades/downgrades and target changes with AMZN continuing to get bumped up with 3 changes today:

 

(AMZN)

Amazon.com coverage assumed with a Buy at Goldman

Target $315.

 

(AMZN)

Amazon.com price target raised to $300 from $274 at BofA/Merrill

BofA/Merrill expects Amazon's eCommerce gains to drive shares despite continued margin disappointments. Shares are Buy rated.

 

(AMZN)

Amazon.com price target raised to $310 from $260 at Benchmark Co.

Benchmark Co. raised its price target for Amazon.com shares on expectations increasing digital sales and strong 3P sales could drive better than expected operating leverage in Q4 and 2013. The firm keeps a Buy rating on the stock.

 

(RRGB)

Red Robin upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley upgraded Red Robin due to top line initiatives that should help its comp forecast.

 

(RL)

Ralph Lauren upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Macquarie

Macquarie upgraded Ralph Lauren based on expectations for accelerating sales trends, easing currency headwinds, improving gross margins, and reduced investment spending, among other reasons. Price target is $190.

 

(AAPL+)

Apple may have shipped 46M+ iPhones in December quarter, says RBC Capital

After AT&T (T) reported that it sold a record 10M+ smartphones last quarter, RBC Capital believes that AT&T's announcement and its additional statements suggest that Apple shipped 46M+ iPhones in its December quarter. The firm maintains a $725 price target and Outperform rating on Apple

 

MA)

MasterCard upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman

Goldman upgraded MasterCard based on higher transaction growth estimates, and strong credit and international volumes. Price target raised to $575 from $500

 

Visa upgraded to Conviction Buy from Buy at Goldman

Goldman added Visa to its Conviction Buy List and named it a top pick for 2013 given its leading position in payments, increased confidence in long-term transaction volume, and strong capital allocation prospects. Price target raised to $188 from $160

 

Today is the last day before EX-DIVY for BPT so I will be getting out of most my calls today, hoping it ramps over $80. Grabbed more $CALL calls yesterday and kicking myself for not getting any more SODA as the stock fell into the 45s and bounces near 47 to end the day. Would expect it to clear 48 again today.

 

Visa and Mastercard were upgraded at Goldman with Visa going on the conviction buy list. Been a heck of a run for both and looks like the runs continue today.

 

FB is having an event next week and invited press: http://blogs.wsj.com/digits/2013/01/08/facebook-issues-mystery-press-invitation/?mod=WSJBlog

 

Here are the strikes I like today:

 

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price
SKUL CALL $8.00 FEB 0.30
RL CALL $170.00 JAN 0.55

 

 

Small list but like what I am holding right now.  Lets have a great day!

 

- JImmybob

Netflix(NFLX) on the move?

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The last time we wrote about NetFlix(NFLX) was in July, when we alerted our chatroom to a possible breakout and banked some nice coin on the huge move to the upside. You can read about the profits here and our thoughts here. It's been nearly 3 months, and Netflix(NFLX) has been trading near multi-year lows with bearish bets at all-time highs. As of September 15th, there are 15 million shares short of the 54 million share float, meaning 28% of the shares are short. With no real catalyst until earnings in October, it would seem logical that the stock continues to succumb to the bears, yet the stock has found support around the $53 level. Each time it has bounced over 20% from that level... a level it found itself at last wednesday. Will history repeat itself? Well take a look at the chart below and see that Netflix (NFLX) has formed a 'triple bottom'

The triple bottom can provide a reliable reversal signal : A pattern used in technical analysis to predict the reversal of a prolonged downtrend. The pattern is identified when the price of an asset creates three troughs at nearly the same price level. The third bounce off the support is an indication that buying interest (demand) is outweighing selling interest (supply) and that the trend is in the process of reversing.

Read more: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/triplebottom.asp#ixzz286lhTai3

If Netflix(NFLX) breaks the $59.72 resistance, the stock will be in reversal mode. The stock is also in a descending wedge pattern when you put the chart into a weekly view which is also bullish:

 

 

Now all the stock needs is a catalyst to help fuel the rally. The stock got that today as Whitney Tilson touted the stock at the 8th annual Value Investing Congress. Here is a great read on what Tilson had to say.

I almost laughed when I listened to Tilson compare the Netflix(NFLX) story to Amazon(AMZN) back in the day, but the more I thought of it the more it started to almost make sense. International growth is still in it's infancy, and competition seems fierce. Yet what would happen if the future of content is not the local cable companies, but is the providers of the content on a global scale.

The argument is that Tilson feels there is a 10% chance that Netflix(NFLX) is a ten bagger from its current price in the coming years, and he is willing to bet on the story. Whether that happens or not is yet to be seen, but what we do know is Netflix(NFLX) has a history of making option traders some serious gains buying in before the big move.

With a great chart setup, and some added attention, we like Netflix(NFLX) for a nice move over $60 over the next few days.

We currently hold the $57.50 Weekly Calls.

 

9-4-2012 Watchlist

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Happy September folks. Hope everyone had a great holiday weekend. Today is the first trading day in September. Lets see if the trading volumes start to improve as the summer lull turns into fall madness.

We have the August Jobs number this week, and that will probably be the biggest data point and market catalyst. For now will look at some plays coming off bottoms and ones to play off the Helicopter been comments friday.

 

Silver looks to be getting its legs back and is trading near the top of the upper bollie. May be worth a shot to look at some AGQ/SLV calls. Wouldnt trade the weeklies, but may look for some Sept Monthly $33 calls which closed on friday at .24. AGQ 60s maybe a nice trade as well as the Sept monthly 60 calls closed @ .50 friday.

Tons of upgrades this morning.

IBM, MLNX, MDVN are the top 3. IBM calls maybe worth a shot, as i think she could move back over $200 short term. The latter two stocks have illiquid options but maybe worth a look if you can get an order in and be patient.

 

SINA and BIDU may be under more pressure today as Muddy waters is targeting some of the China stocks again. http://www.wantchinatimes.com/news-subclass-cnt.aspx?id=20120904000060&cid=1102&MainCatID=0

Play accordingly.

I will be watching the usual suspects for some more upside: LNKD, AMZN.

Earnings are coming to an end here shortly. Only like SWHC this week. Will post more before earnings thursday.

On a side note, the site is constantly being upgraded. Thanks to the admin team we have a new TEXT service. Check it out here: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/live-chat/sms-stock-option-alerts/

Stay tuned to chat for more updates!

- Jimmy

7-30-2012 Watchlist

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We had some great plays to end an amazing week, and looking forward to another week of earnings plays to go along with a market that may be headed for 4 year highs. There is not many thing you can count on in life... death... taxes... and manipulation from central banks. It seemed like the world was coming to an end the last few weeks, now none of that matters. Continue to focus ont the trade and lets have a great week.

 

I posted retiredmms watchlist here: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/forums/topic/retiredmm-watchlist-7-30-2012/

 

Here are the ones I am watching today:

 

LNKD - already bought the $120 calls @ .80 on friday. I will probably look to add some $125/$130s so i can lock the $120s in sometime this week. There are MANY differeing views on LNKD earnings thursday, so expect a VOLATILE move. Whether thats up or down. who knows. But you know where I am betting it will go! ~ 🙂

 

PCLN - Every time a stock runs up $55+ in a day, folks start looking for puts. Pricelines move friday was an indication to me that folks had the stock and the sector wrong. I think PCLN continues to move on over zealous buying and breaks $700 today. I then think it will ramp to $740 this week. I maybe wrong, but these are the type of moves that make a few hundred into a few thousand. I have the $725 calls right now and may add more if there is any weakness.

 

AMZN - Again, this stock is one of those that make folks scratch their head. Why was it up after a poor earnings report thursday? Heck, they are making less profit and have an INSANE PE ratio! Again, all about growth and I think this stock is headed to $250+ this weak before any pullback. Closed near HOD on friday and I think $242+ comes today. I already have $255 weekly and will add some $245/250s after the open.

 

Stocks for earnings: FLS after the close : STX after the close

 

Like FLS for some calls, will post strikes in chat. Unsure of STX but think it will be volatile.

 

Thats all for now, lets have a great week!!!