Markets closed lower to star the holiday shortened trading week, with the S&P closing down .41% in another choppy session that saw stocks fail to hold early morning gains. Asia markets closed mostly lower overnight while Europe indexes are in the red this morning. U.S. futures are pointing to a lower open, the Dollar is higher while Yields, Oil, and Gold are all lower.
And this is what UPB is reading this morning: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/morning-reads-93/
The SPY opened green and tried to break past the $395 level, but failed, reversing course and coming down to test the $390s. It was a battle in a choppy afternoon session, and the SPY was able to close above that level but still in the red. Will see if it can hold that again today and maybe a short-term bottom here. If not, fear the low $380s will come later this week. We have plenty of Fed speakers, with Brainard set to speak today and Powell at a Q&A session tomorrow. We are also just two weeks away from the next Fed decision and would think they will try and set the expectations for a .75% hike. Outside of that, the US dollar and Europe energy issues are stealing the spotlight.
The Dollar has soared to 20 year highs. If anything that should help the buying power of companies that import parts and supplies which could offset rising prices. And it is also good for US Government debt. Will see how this story line plays out over the coming months. If you spoke to perma-bears over the past decade, they would tell you the dollar is going to zero and Fiat currency will not last... the irony.
APRN was green for most of the day on Tuesday, trading in the $6s before sellers came in and dropped the stock .40 into the close. It is gapping a bit this morning after they announced another amended agreement where the largest stakeholder, Joe Sanberg, will acquire shares for $5.75 instead of $5 in their financing deal. He holds over 51% of the outstanding share count. Chart is still tight:
RH fell 3% yesterday in sympathy with the rest of the market. Premiums were expensive so did not enter any puts. Will be watching today for a possible entry to play for premium build into tomorrows earnings:
PETQ is a name I have followed in the past. If there is a sector that should be somewhat recession proof, it would be companies in the Pet Sector. Yet PETQ's last quarter was a rough one, missing estimates and lowering guidance. The stock then went on a 14 session losing streak... not sure I have seen a streak so long without a bounce. Yesterday before the open the company announced a $30 million share buyback program. The stock soared 15% and think it may come back and test the low teens. The chart is also pinching. I may look at some Sept 12.50 or even Oct $15 calls:
EVH closed slightly in the green yesterday. It breaks $38 could see $40 quick. Will be looking again for calls today:
It is a big day for AMLX with their AdCom. The stock will likely be halted at some point today. If there is a positive vote think it trades north of $40. If not, the stock will head back under $10. The risk trading into binary events:
ICPT continues to be frustrating, trading down 8% yesterday to give back most of the gains from the previous sessions. Will wait until next week to add anything past September calls:
I took my TZA calls off yesterday as the premiums did not rise as much as I thought they should with TZA breaking into the $38s. Will be watching as a hedge again if the SPY can't hold $390.
Here are the analyst changes of note for today:
| BofA raises target on 'fallen angel' Boeing, stays Neutral |
| BofA analyst Ronald Epstein raised the firm's price target on Boeing to $175 from $170 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Short-term catalysts are playing out for Boeing, namely, 737 Max and 787 deliveries, but there remains "many medium and longer-term challenges," Epstein tells investors in a research note. The analyst believes Boeing "has become, in many ways, a fallen angel." Conversations with investors focus equally on the balance sheet and income statement, and the company is now widely seen as a turnaround story, Epstein tells investors in a research note. The analyst sees the stock as a "possible value-play or even a value-trap. |
| Northland starts 'well positioned' Stem at Outperform |
| As previously reported, Northland analyst Abhishek Sinha initiated coverage of Stem with an Outperform rating and $24 price target. The U.S.-based complete battery storage solutions provider is "well positioned" with "a very dominant position" as the global push for lower emissions, vast improvements in battery technologies and a solid support by the passage of IRA bill should drive industry participants to make extensive use of energy storage systems, Sinha tells investors. Stem "has a significant head start against competition," as evident from the fact that it has over 50% repeat customers in Q3 bookings, the analyst added |
| Coupa Software price target lowered to $75 from $85 at Truist |
| Truist analyst Terry Tillman lowered the firm's price target on Coupa Software to $75 from $85 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The company's Q2 results were a "solid beat" and its outlook suggested "improved profitability", the analyst tells investors in a research note. Tillman adds that Coupa saw continued softness in European markets, but strength in North America drove strong execution throughout the remainder of the business, even though his reduced priced target reflects "macro uncertainty" |
| CVS Health price target raised to $125 from $120 at Evercore ISI |
| Evercore ISI analyst Elizabeth Anderson raised the firm's price target on CVS Health (CVS) to $125 from $120 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares after updating her CVS model to include our accretion estimate from the Signify Health (SGFY) acquisition on a pro forma basis. CVS has been looking for three types of assets - primary care, home health, and provider enablement - and Signify "checks off two of the boxes and is highly complementary to the third," Anderson tells investors |
| Coupa Software price target lowered to $70 from $75 at DA Davidson |
| DA Davidson analyst Robert Simmons lowered the firm's price target on Coupa Software to $70 from $75 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The company's Q2 was "better than feared" and the management took a "conservative" approach to guidance, the analyst tells investors in a research note. While Coupa Software management is delivering cost control, resulting in higher free cash flow estimates next year, he awaits signs of macro stability and execution, Simmons adds |
And here is what I am watching : PETQ, TZA, EVH, RH, ICPT, LULU, ULTA, CMG, TZA, PANW, SAGE, TWLO, SPOT, ROKU, NFLX, and SPLK.
Let's have a great day!
-JB