Markets finished mixed on Thursday, with the S&P recovering from morning losses to close up .30% while the Nasdaq ended the day down .26%. Asia stocks closed mixed overnight while Europe indexes are in the green this morning. U.S. futures are pointing to a higher open as I write this, Yields and the Dollar are lower while Oil and Gold are higher.
Here is a nice read from UPB: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/where-are-we-now-5/
And this is what UPB is reading this morning: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/morning-reads-91/
Stocks opened lower on Thursday, and looked set for a 5th day in a row of losses, before staging an afternoon rally to close higher. This morning the August Jobs report came in a little weaker than expected and showed labor participation surging while the unemployment rate rose to 3.7%. Futures rallied on the news. Bad news is good news. Similar to last months CPI, will have to see how this plays out. The SPY held $390 yesterday and we are nearing the $400 handle in the pre-market. Two key levels for now. I added some TZA and DUST calls into next week as hedges. I will likely continue to hold those into the weekend unless the SPY trades over $401 or so:
ICPT closed higher for the 2nd day in a row, trying to recoup Tuesdays losses. Would like to see this over $19 into the weekend and may look at some later dated strikes today:
APRN closed off nearly 13% yesterday and looks like the tug-of-war has resolved to the downside. Still hopeful here and love the story. If it holds $5 today I may look at later dated calls (and hope to have a DD post out for the weekend). One of these weeks it squeezes...
AMLX closed lower on Thursday and looks like I will be holding my October calls into their AdCom on Wednesday. Any positive vote and the stock is $40+:
PANW closed off over 2% in sympathy with CRWD earnings. It tested its 200dma before bouncing. May look at some lotto calls today on any strength:
LULU reported a great quarter after the close and the stock is rallying. I was looking at $335/$340 or so calls into the report. With the stock at $323 those will likely be in the red at the open. I may look at some lotto calls to play for a move into the $330s today:
Also looking to play the regular Friday lotto names like SPOT, TWLO. and ROKU.
Here are the analyst changes of note for today:
| Nvidia price target lowered to $170 from $185 at Needham |
| Needham analyst Rajvindra Gill lowered the firm's price target on Nvidia to $170 from $185 but keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The analyst is citing the impact of the new license requirements for the company's exports of A100 into China and Russia, reducing his sales estimates by $400M. Gill adds however that while the hardened government stance presents a significant headwind to the business, he remains positive on Nvidia shares for their attractive valuation, superior balance sheet, and robust data center buildouts |
| Ciena price target lowered to $45 from $53 at Northland |
| Northland analyst Tim Savageaux lowered the firm's price target on Ciena (CIEN) to $45 from $53 and keeps a Market Perform rating on the shares following a fiscal Q3 report and outlook that he said "featured a dramatic worsening in supply conditions amid continued strong Tier 1 carrier and Cloud demand for optical transport." Ciena's supply pressure "stands in contrast to most if not all of what we have heard down the supply chain" from the likes of Lumentum (LITE), II-VI (IIVI) and Fabrinet (FN), raising concerns around company specific execution that could pressure valuation, argues Savageaux |
| Smartsheet price target lowered to $45 from $50 at DA Davidson |
| DA Davidson analyst Robert Simmons lowered the firm's price target on Smartsheet to $45 from $50 but keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The company reported "good" Q2 results, but the headwinds seen in July/August cut into its expansion activity, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Simmons adds however that while Smartsheet revenue and billings outlook was reduced, its cost controls mean better operating income and potential cash generation next year |
| Jefferies says sell Lululemon on rally as Q2 is 'the peak' |
| Jefferies analyst Randal Konik recommends selling shares of Lululemon Athletica on the post-earnings rally. The stock in premarket trading is up 9% to $321.60. He keeps an Underperform rating on the shares with a $200 price target, which represents 32% downside. While the Q2 results were strong, Lululemon's long-term projections are aggressive across revenue, margins, men's, and international, Konik tells investors in a research note. He believes the company "will likely have to walk back" its long-term projections as competition rises, end markets weaken, and promotions increase industry-wide. Konik believes Q2 is "the peak" and he would recommend selling the shares at current levels |
| PagerDuty price target lowered to $37 from $40 at Cowen |
| Cowen analyst J. Derrick Wood lowered the firm's price target on PagerDuty to $37 from $40 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The analyst said while they are not escaping the macro and we are now incorporating longer sales cycles for 2H, he continues to like the company's positioning of high-value ROI to developers with durable demand and a favorable competitive environment |
Lululemon Q2 results beat expectations, says Oppenheimer |
| Oppenheimer analyst Brian Nagel kept an Outperform rating on lululemon following Q2 earnings results that "easily" beat expectations, along with raised guidance for the rest of the year. The analyst noted that data suggest that lululemon is seeing "virtually no impacts of a potentially weaker consumer upon trends at the company." Nagel remains upbeat on the prospects for athleisure and view lululemon as a "top pick within the space |
iRhythm price target raised to $198 from $185 at Canaccord |
| Canaccord analyst William Plovanic raised the firm's price target on iRhythm to $198 from $185 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The analyst updated his model following the release of the company's 10@ for the quarter and his target increase is to reflect the multiple expansion of the comp group |
| Appointment of new Starbucks CEO should drive accelerating EM growth, says BTIG |
| BTIG analyst Peter Saleh keeps his Buy rating and $110 price target on Starbucks after the company named Laxman Narasimhan as its next CEO. Mr. Narasimhan has deep knowledge of the global consumer and his appointment could set the stage for accelerating growth in emerging markets where the brand lacks material penetration, the analyst tells investors in a research note |
And here is what I am watching today: ICPT, APRN, ULTA, LULU, CMG, TZA, EVH, PANW, SAGE, TWLO, SPOT, ROKU, NFLX, and SPLK.
Let's have a great day!
-JB