The S&P500 and Nasdaq were able to muster a positive close yesterday despite another round of late afternoon selling. That selling, however, has continued with S&P500 futures falling some .3% before today's opening bell. Weighing on the markets, are
despite the usual noise, is Europe with Italy down over 4% after plans to target its 2019 deficit. Italian banks are leading the move lower and Europe following the selling in Italy:
- UK's FTSE is lower by 0.6%. Financials are among the laggards with RSA Insurance falling 9.0% after warning that third quarter results will disappoint. Provident Financial, RBS, Lloyds Banking, Standard Life, Old Mutual, Barclays, and Prudential are down between 2.3% and 3.5%.
- France's CAC has given up 0.8%. Credit Agricole, BNP Paribas, Societe Generale, and AXA lead the retreat with losses between 2.9% and 4.6% while Capgemini, STMicroelectronics, Peugeot, and TechnipFMC are down between 0.7% and 1.6%.
- Germany's DAX is down 1.5%. Commerzbank and Deutsche Bank hold respective losses of 5.4% and 4.3% while Allianz, Volkswagen, Daimler, BMW, Bayer, Infineon, and Continental are down between 1.3% and 2.6%.
- Italy's MIB has slid 4.2%, approaching its low from the end of August. Banco Bpm, Bper Banca, UBI Banca, UniCredit, Intesa Sanpaolo, Mediobanca, Banca Generali, and Banca Mediolanum are down between 4.9% and 10.4%. Mediaset, Freni Brembo, ENI, Fiat, Pirelli, and Ferrari show losses between 1.3% and 4.2%.
UPB HERE - good morning. S&P500 futures are struggling on this Friday with the $SPY under $290 while $QQQ has fallen under $185.
If S&P500 futures can hold support, I think there is a nice long set-up for next week. However a Friday swoon, which we've had quite a few of in 2018, could foreshadow a negative start to October.
I'll keep updating this chart in the room today:
I remain in calls on a host of names and bullish on the market overall. Despite the China trade war , the FED hiking rates, and all the other negative headlines.
I updated my perspective earlier this week in case you missed it:
$TXMD has more positive news after the bell last night. The stock looks poised to hit that $7.00 level. That $7.50 level break would be a wonderful technical trigger.
Financials continue to limp along and, while I think they trade higher into years end, the price action right now is telling a different story.
If we do break support on S&P500 Futures, we could see a very nasty Friday Flop which I will be buying puts for. A $BKNG $GOOGL and/or $AMZN type put lotto will be on my radar.
A hold of support... especially into that 10:30 time frame would be a nice opportunity for a bounce trade. Let's see how the early action pans out.
Here are some early analyst comments/action:
$NVDA
| Nvidia price target raised to $400 from $300 at Evercore ISI | |
| After hosting investor meetings with Nvidia management, Evercore ISI analyst C.J. Muse said he believes investors are now more appreciative of Nvidia's opportunity in creating the AI industry standard and the company's "positive feedback loop" within deep learning. Longer-term, he sees tremendous growth opportunities led by the new Turing architecture, which further entrenches Nvidia's high-end gaming moat and presents a "meaningful" opportunity in Inference, Muse tells investors. The analyst, who sees Nvidia being poised to grow EPS at a 30-35% CAGR through 2020 and beyond, raised his price target on the stock to $400 from $300 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares | |
$W
| Wayfair price target raised to $165 from $140 at Canaccord | |
| Canaccord analyst Maria Ripps raised her price target on Wayfair to $165 from $140 as she believes consumers continue to embrace the convenience and ease of online purchasing. The analyst raised her longer-term revenue forecast as she believes its investments should enable it to drive further e-commerce adoption and take an outsized share of the expanding market. Ripps reiterated her Buy rating on Wayfair shares | |
$COT
| Cott Corp. added to Analyst Focus List at JPMorgan | |
| JPMorgan analyst Peter Grom added Cott Corp. to his firm's Analyst Focus List saying he sees "plenty of room" for shares to outperform through the balance of 2018 and into 2019. The analyst sees improved visibility for both 2018 and 2019 EBITDA after Cott issued a presentation that discussed the company's broader strategy and underlying trends. Further, the shares are still trading at a 19% discount to route-based peers, Grom tells investors in a research note. He keeps an Overweight rating on the stock with a $21 price target | |
$TSLA
Citi analyst Itay Michaeli downgraded Tesla to Sell from Neutral and lowered his price target for the shares to $225 from $356. The analyst is making a "risk/reward call" into the outcome of the SEC lawsuit against CEO Elon Musk. In a scenario where the suit leads to Musk's exit, the analyst says there is "little question" that the departure would likely cause harm to Tesla's brand, stakeholder confidence and fundraising. This would increase the risk of triggering a "downward confidence spiral" given the state of Tesla's balance sheet, Michaeli tells investors in a research note titled "SEC Action Raises Risk of a Spiral; Risk/Reward Moves Us to Sell." And even if Musk were to stay on after settling or prevailing, the analyst believes the "reputational harm" from the suit "might still prevent the stock from immediately returning to 'normal.'" Even with today's selloff, the stock's risk/reward is still tilted negatively, Michaeli contends
$TDOC
Canaccord analyst Richard Close raised his price target on Teladoc to $94 from $86 following its "impressive" investor day. The analyst noted the company raised its guidance and shed some light on the international opportunity. He believes the company has strong sustainable momentum with global opportunities and is just beginning to scratch the surface. Close reiterated his Buy rating on Teladoc shares
$LOW
SunTrust analyst Keith Hughes upgraded Lowe's (LOW) to Buy from Hold and raised his price target to $138 from $110. The analyst cites the company's latest Q2 earnings and the analyst meeting with its management suggesting an "internally focused" turnaround progressing at a "consistent pace" over the next 2-3 years. Hughes adds that even though the stock has recently turned higher, it could rise as much as 50% if the company could reclaim just half of the SG&A difference with Home Depot (HD). The analyst further notes that Lowe's further sales improvement could also come from "changes in merchandising, brands and lower out of stock for both pros and consumers
On a support break I'll be looking for $GOOGL, $AMZN, and/or $BKNG puts
$GOOGL $1180 puts - $AMZN $1975 puts $BKNG $1950 puts
On a support hold at the 1030 time frame I'll be looking for calls:
$BABA $165 calls $NFLX $380 calls.
My longer term call positions will remain as is, unless we get a strong rally in any of the names today, such at $TXMD.
Have a great day and a wonderful weekend!!