Futures are pointing to a red start to the week, with the S&P set to open .82% lower as I write this. Asia market closed down overnight while Europe indexes are mixed this morning. The US dollar and Yields are higher while Oil and Gold are lower.
And this is what UPB is reading this morning: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/morning-reads-106/
And a nice scan from UPB:
Markets are pointing to a lower open, continuing the carnage from last week when the S&P fell nearly 5%, as the Fed pretty much said they want to induce the U.S. economy into a recession to fight inflation. This week we will get the Feds preferred inflation gauge, the PCE, on Friday. There are still some earnings from names like NKE and MU and then the end of the 3Q on Friday. Reading the headlines over the weekend one would think the market has tumbled 40%+ from its highs and there is another 40% tumble coming. Outside of any black swan event like nuclear war or some crazy default, hard to think markets can tumble that far... those headlines just make for great click bait. One is more apt to click a link that says, 'sell your stocks there is a crash coming' as opposed to to, 'the market is going to slowly melt higher'. The big news on Friday and today has been the U.K., as they announced tax cuts coming and the pound dropped to historical lows. Some is a function of the stronger US dollar, but the rest is based on the premise the UK will need to fund the tax cuts, and all this in the midst of nasty inflation. This stronger US dollar story is likely going to be around for a while. I mentioned it back in the spring, but think a stronger US dollar bodes well for small-caps and it also is a boon to the US Government as they make payments on the debt and interest. Will see how this plays out but certainly not bullish Gold for now. Would want to see the SPY regain that $370 handle soon or $350 or so is coming next:
WING fell nearly 2% on Friday. Still like the setup here but would want to see it back over that 50dma today or tomorrow to get that bull-flag going. Not going to add anything just yet to my October strikes:
It is a big week for AMLX as the FDA should be announcing their decision on their ALS drug by the 29th. A positive decision and the stock trades north of $40. Will continue to hold the rest of my calls:
WIX looks interesting again here. Starboard announced a 9% activist stake and would not be surprised to see them continue to add. May look at some October strikes today for a move to $90 in the coming weeks:
Macau is set to fully open by November, a surprise announcement. Think names like WYNN and LVS will be bid up this week. May look at some calls. likely in WYNN, for a move to $65+:
Barron's had a positive piece on GNRC over the weekend:
Not a name I have really traded before but could see some life today with Hurricane Ian bearing down on Florida. May look at some calls to play for a move to $190+ in the coming days:
Have to think at some point here we get a multi-day relief bounce. Hoping it starts today.
Here are the analyst changes of note for today:
Disney+ ad-supported tier should be accretive to ARPU, says Evercore ISI
|Evercore ISI analyst Vijay Jayant has refined subscriber and ARPU estimates to reflect the Disney+ price increase and the launch of an ad-supported tier on December 8 after having conducted a survey of 1,051 individuals in the U.S. to gauge their responses to Disney's pricing changes, telling investors that the ad-supported tier should be accretive to average revenue per user, or ARPU. Jayant, who believes Disney+ ex. Hotstar net adds are on track to meet the firm's 8M estimate for fiscal Q4, has an Outperform rating and $140 price target on Disney shares|
William Blair keeps Outperform on Yeti after surprising CFO depature
|William Blair analyst Sharon Zackfia is "surprised" to see Yeti CFO Paul Carbone depart but does not view the news or the timing as indicative of the near- or long-term opportunities for the company. In a conversation, Carbone suggested to the analyst that the main driver of the decision was his desire to be closer to family with the timing a function of the opportunity at the other company, not a competitor to Yeti. Zackfia says that despite investor concern about a potential need for a steep revision to forward estimates, she remains confident given "healthy" brand indicators including rebounding Google trends and Yeti's low markdown risk. The analyst keeps an Outperform rating on the shares|
|Six Flags price target raised to $30 from $28 at Stifel|
|Stifel analyst Steven Wieczynski raised the firm's price target on Six Flags to $30 from $28 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. With shares down about 40% over the last four months, he sees a good time to revisit this name as their peak operating season is coming to a close and the company's long-term change in attendance strategy should become more pronounced heading into 2023, Wieczynski tells investors. He believes investors have priced in an "almost worst-case scenario" based on where shares are trading today, which presents an attractive long-term buying opportunity for patient investors, the analyst added|
Macau positive policy development unexpected, says JPMorgan
|This weekend, Macau's Chief Executive announced that the Central government has decided to ease the visa policy for Macau as early as November, particularly, with the resumption of e-visa and group tours, JPMorgan analyst Joseph Greff tells investors in a research note. The analyst says this would be the first time e-visas and group tours could be used for travel into Macau since the beginning of the pandemic. This is the first meaningful travel policy/travel mobility enhancing action since the outbreak of COVID-19, notes Greff. He believes this "positive development isn't something that the industry or investors were expecting." The news is positive for all Macau-centric stocks, namely Las Vegas Sands (LVS), Wynn Resorts (WYNN), Melco Resorts & Entertainment (MLCO) and MGM Resorts (MGM)|
|PayPal Pay with Venmo Amazon launch upcoming catalyst says Canaccord|
|Canaccord analyst Joseph Vafi said despite a tough macro backdrop he sees the upcoming Pay with Venmo launch on Amazon (AMZN) as the next catalyst for PayPal (PYPL) shares. He said with approximately 55 million monthly active users in the US on Venmo, he believes this launch could compel other ecommerce platforms to compete with Amazon for these customers, driving a potentially accelerating cadence of Venmo acceptance by merchants over time. Vafi reiterated his Buy rating and $160 price target on PayPal shares|
And here is what I am watching today: WYNN, GNRC, WIX, LVS, APRN, ICPT, CI, CMG, HUM. TRIP, ROKU, SAGE, and PTCT.
Let's have a great day!