September 19th, 2022 Watch List

Futures are pointing to a lower open this morning, on the heels of a 4.77% weekly loss for the S&P, as a higher than expected CPI read had folks running for the exits. Asia stocks closed lower overnight while Europe indexes are in the red this morning. The US dollar and Yields are higher while Oil and Gold are lower.

And this is what UPB is reading this morning:

It was a rough week for markets, with stocks tumbling after a hotter than expected CPI number. This week we get another catalyst, the Fed meeting. Market are expecting a .75% rate hike but the odds for a 1% hike have risen in the last few days. Certainly going to be a volatile session on Wednesday, especially after the Fed statement at 2pm and presser from Powell at 2:30 pm. Would think if the Fed raises rates .75%, it will be well received. A 1% hike may rattle markets a but but also think stocks would reverse course. Any dovish commentary and things will remain dicey. Good news used to be good news for markets, now bad news is good news. Eventually that narrative will change. Would want to see the $380 handle hold on the SPY today and tomorrow or those June lows will come into play:

Back in 2008 there were unexpected events that rattled markets and provided catalyst for the market to sell-off... ie. Bear Streams, Lehman Brothers...ect. FDX's surprise guidance reduction and removal of 2023 guidance was certainly a surprise last week, though much of the guide down was due to China Covid lockdowns and issues in Europe. I still think the odds of another black swan event are low, but if there is another large cap name that does what FDX did last week, may have to rethink this.

I added some ICPT calls on Friday as the last of my freebie September strikes expired. If/when the market finds footing this will trade north of $20 and possibly test $30. Not to mention the possibility of a buyout:

As mentioned last week, think insurers are somewhat insulated from any economic downturn... HUM's raised guidance last week is great evidence of that. CI should have traded higher in sympathy in HUM... think it will play catch-up at some point. Will be eyeing some calls for a move over $300 in the coming days:

APRN closed lower every day last week and has made it 6 sessions in a row to the downside since testing the $8s. If it fails to hold $5 today I may actually look at some leap calls, maybe Jan strikes. Still think this story is completely misunderstood and the market is pricing it for bankruptcy:

Lastly, WING is a name I may look to add some calls on. It was performed well in the face of inflationary concerns and now the price of their main ingredient chicken, has fallen. The company can now keep their raised prices and reap the rewards of higher margins. Just a great story. May look at some calls to play for a move into the $140s in the coming days:

Here are the analyst changes of note for today:

Survey indicates mixed Apple iPhone 14 launch, says KeyBanc
KeyBanc analyst John Vinh says his carrier survey this past weekend indicates demand for the Apple (AAPL) iPhone 14 initial launch in the U.S. was mixed but in line with expectations, with high customer demand for Pro/Max models, as the majority of stores surveyed had no inventories, which was offset by weaker demand for iPhone 14/Plus. Lead times for the Pro and Max are one to four weeks and three to five weeks, respectively, reflective of strong demand, while supply of the iPhone 14 is readily available, Vinh adds. He views the results as neutral to his Apple supply chain coverage, and sees Broadcom (AVGO), Cirrus Logic (CRUS), Qorvo (QRVO), Qualcomm (QCOM), and Skyworks (SWKS) benefiting from both content and unit growth in the second half of the year
Take-Two hack presents buying opportunity, says Benchmark
Benchmark analyst Mike Hickey noted that Take-Two Interactive shares are trading down this morning in-part on the hack and subsequent leaked footage from "Grand Theft Auto Next," but he does not think the leak of the "pre-alpha" footage will challenge the timing of the game's release or the ultimate demand for the game, adding that he thought the early footage "looked incredible." Hickey, who "can't imagine anybody would decide to not play the game after viewing the footage," is incrementally more confident the game can release in FY25 as the leak confirms that "the game is very much real, and significant development has been completed." He would be an "aggressive buyer" this morning on a significant share price pullback as he sees any slide presenting a buying opportunity, concluded Hickey, who has a Buy rating and $200 price target on Take-Two shares
Yeti management sounded optimistic at investor meetings, says William Blair
After having hosted investor meetings with Yeti's CEO and CFO, William Blair analyst Sharon Zackfia said the management team "sounded an optimistic tone on the state of the brand and the opportunity for future growth." While Yeti has been lumped in with other outdoor brands as a pandemic beneficiary, it has seen "impressive resilience in sales trends so far this year," said Zackfia, who thinks Yeti has inherently low markdown risk even at higher inventory levels. The analyst, who also notes that Yeti's stock has retracted more than 20% over the past month, reiterates an Outperform rating on the shares
American Homes 4 Rent price target lowered to $38 from $39 at Evercore ISI
Evercore ISI analyst Steve Sakwa lowered the firm's price target on American Homes 4 Rent to $38 from $39 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. Following two weeks of REIT industry conferences and numerous company meetings, he is "growing more cautious" about NOI and FFO growth for the back half of 2023 and first half of 2024, said Sakwa, who now assumes higher expected yields on long-term fixed rate debt, which will negatively impact earnings as companies deal with near term debt maturities
Zillow initiated with Buy on share gain potential at Compass Point
Compass Point analyst Jason Weaver initiated coverage of Zillow Group with a Buy rating and $50 price target. As the "preeminent online destination" for homebuyers and sellers, Zillow has amassed the most comprehensive data repository to date serving over 200M unique monthly users, Weaver tells investors in a research note. While customer demand is generally correlated to overall real estate market conditions that are expected to remain under pressure through mid-2023, the "challenge and opportunity" for Zillow to actively capture share holds potential growth implications that may far offset near-term market headwinds, says the analyst. "Very modest" gains in share may translate into substantial revenue and EBITDA growth potential above consensus, contends Weaver

And here is what I am watching today: WING, EVH, APRN, CI, HUM, ZS, TZA, ICPT, ROKU,  BHC, U, SPOT, TWLO, CMG, , PTCT, and SAGE.

Let's have a great day!


JimmyBob (Scott)has been trading equities for over 15 years, a majority of which were OTC micro-cap stocks. He started trading high risk stock options over the past 7 years, and has proven winning trades in excess of 15,000%.

As one of the Co-Founders of, Scott enjoys sharing his knowledge with other investors through timely blog posts, daily watch lists in the forum, weekly webinars, and helpful advice within the chatroom.

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