Stocks closed lower on Thursday with the S&P finishing the day down over 1% while the Nasdaq fell over 1.4%. Asia stocks closed lower overnight while Europe stocks are also in the red this morning. U.S. futures are pointing to a lower open, the Dollar and Oil are higher while Yields and Gold are lower.
It was a rough day for stocks yesterday. Unlike Wednesday's action, there was no late day surge to save the day. After the close FDX drastically lowered their guidance and removed their outlook for 2023. Most of the blame was put on the Covid lockdowns in China and issues in Europe, but it was still a shocking reversal considering their rosy earnings and guidance just last quarter. Shipping names like UPS are lower in sympathy along with retailers like AMZN, TGT, ect. Certainly not the type of news one would want to see for a green session today. And with little catalyst until the Fed next Wednesday, could keep markets under pressure.
Have to think at this point the proverbial 'cat is out of the bag'. In 2008 there were black swan events... defaults. We are not anywhere near that. Will see how things play out over the next few months. Not saying we bottom soon, just think if there is a bottom, it is closer now than ever. That $390 spot on the SPY was strong support and it closed right at that level yesterday. This gap down this morning is not a promising sign and if stocks can't find a bid that $380 spot will be next:
TWLO broke over $80 yesterday morning, testing the 50dma at $81.25. I used the move to close the last of my calls out for 600%. Will be a name I will have on watch into next week:
I also added some lotto CI calls on the heels of the HUM news, where they raised guidance. Have to think this trades north of $300 in the coming days so may look to add some strikes into next week. Think some of these insurers will do well in even in the face of a recession:
ROKU soared out of the gate yesterday, as a NFLX upgrade and chatter of a M&A put a bid in the stock. I added some calls and was able to close some out for 100%. Hindsight is 20/20 and I should have closed the entire position out. Will need a big move here today for the calls to come back to life. I may actually look at some later dated strikes at some point as I think the M&A rumors have some validity and it is only a matter of time before NFLX or even AMZN acquires them:
It has been a rough 5 sessions for $APRN... will wait before adding more calls here - the story has not changed:
ICPT closed up 2.5% despite the market weakness yesterday. The rest of my freebie ICPT calls expire today. Will look for some later dated strikes today:
I am more apt to play for bounces today than adding any puts, though if things get really ugly... ie SPY breaks $380, will use TZA as a hedge.
Here are the analyst changes of note for today:
| Intellia Therapeutics should be up on NTLA-2001/2002 data, says BMO Capital |
| BMO Capital analyst Kostas Biliouris keeps his Market Perform rating and $54 price target on Intellia Therapeutics but believes that the stock should rise after the company announced interim clinical data in NTLA-2001 and NTLA-2002. NTLA-2001 has achieved above 90% TTR reduction at both doses and across patient subgroups, which is in line with his estimates, the analyst tells investors in a research note. In NTLA-2002, 91% attack reduction was delivered with low dose, suggest potential higher reduction under the high dose, Biliouris adds, stating that the company now plans U.S. trials for both programs next |
| Adobe price target lowered to $345 from $435 at BMO Capital |
| BMO Capital analyst Keith Bachman lowered the firm's price target on Adobe to $345 from $435 and keeps a Market Perform rating on the shares after its Q3 results and $20B acquisition of Figma. While Figma is an intriguing asset, the deal price, dilution and timing raise more questions about competition and durable growth potential of Creative Cloud, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Bachman also views Adobe's quarterly performance as "mixed" while cutting his Fy23 EPS view to $15.47 from $15.80 |
| FedEx price target lowered to $199 from $269 at Wells Fargo |
| Wells Fargo analyst Allison Poliniak-Cusic lowered the firm's price target on FedEx to $199 from $269 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. While Poliniak-Cusic expected a tough quarter, preliminary results were well below expectations, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Q1 is the first quarter coming out FedEx's analyst day in June where new CEO Raj Subramaniam articulated the company's strategic growth initiatives and FY25 goals and Thursday's announcement failed to instill confidence, she says |
| MKM Partners starts Zscaler at Buy with $225 price target |
| MKM Partners analyst Catharine Trebnick initiated coverage of Zscaler with a Buy rating and $225 price target as part of a broader research note on the Cyber Security Software Sector. The company "came out of nowhere" to be the VPN replacement, offering SaaS first mover advantage to Zero Trust framework, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Trebnick adds that Zscaler has sustained top-line growth over 55% for the past two years and exceeded consensus estimates by an average of 7% over the same time period. The analyst also industry checks suggesting that demand remains resilient as Zscaler seeks a more efficient platform to address remote access and security projects aligned with digital transformation and hybrid work |
| Adobe price target lowered to $400 from $520 at Cowen |
| Cowen analyst J. Derrick Wood lowered the firm's price target on Adobe to $400 from $520 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The analyst said they delivered a mixed quarter with modest 3Q upside but a slight guide-down for 4Q and also noted they are paying $20b for Figma which broke all valuation records and cost the company roughly $25b in market cap |
And here is what I am watching today: ZS, TZA, ICPT, ROKU, BHC, U, SPOT, TWLO, CMG, WING, PTCT, SAGE, and APRN.
Let's have a great day!
-JB