The DOW has now closed green 9 consecutive days, the longest streak since 1996. Those thinking the longer the streak the bigger the pullback can look at the previous times the market has had such streaks for guidance : https://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2013/3/13/djia-9-day-winning-streaks.html
Those who are more bearish can use this chart reference to make them feel better from zerohedge https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2013/03/20130313_DOWSPX.jpg
With jobless claims coming in better then expected this morning, it looks like the market is going to continue it’s mojo. Some big upgrades for LNKD this morning, as well as EBAY and AAPL.
Here are some of the analyst changes today:
SNDK SanDisk initiated with an Outperform at Macquarie
AAPL Apple upgraded at BTIG
As previously reported, BTIG upgraded Apple to Buy from Neutral. The firm upgraded shares based on low expectations, the return to earnings growth driven by new products and services, and benefits from the reversal of the impact of tighter phone upgrade policies in the U.S. Price target is $540
VMW VMware remains well positioned for growth, says Cowen
Cowen believes VMWare expects more share appreciation as the year progresses after the company outlined its strategic mission to expand it market opportunity including its Pivotal Initiative and cloud platform. The firm reiterated its Outperform rating citing better than expected guidance, a bullish outlook and current valuation.
LNKD LinkedIn price target raised to $220 from $157 at Goldman
Goldman believes LinkedIn's market opportunity is underappreciated and that its efforts to improve user engagement is driving accelerated growth. The firm believes there is upside to marketing revenue growth and reiterates its Buy rating.
EBAY eBay likely to see minimal impact from MasterCard fee, says Bernstein
Bernstein believes that MasterCard's (MA) new fee on PayPal will have a minimal impact on eBay's(EBAY) 2013 and 2014 EPS. The firm reiterates a $66 price target and Outperform rating on eBay.
VRA Vera Bradley weakness a buying opportunity, says Jefferies
Jefferies recommends using any weakness in shares of Vera Bradley following the company's Q4 results as a buying opportunity. The firm expects the company's trends to improve and maintains a Buy rating on the stock with a $35 price target.
With March expiration tomorrow, will keep my positions tight for now. Will look for possible entries on AAPL as well as LNKD if it crosses 185.
|Stock Ticker||Call/Put||Strike||Expiration||Closing Price||Entry Price|
Lets have another great day!
Wow, yesterday felt like market carnage! Of course i am kidding but for the calmness of the last 7 trading sessions, yesterday brought us a little taste of some BEAR action. Even with everyone waiting anxiously for the next pullback... everyone asking themselves “is this the correction/pullback we have been waiting for?” , the market still found its footing and regained most of the losses by the end of the day, with the DOW squeaking out a small gain to close at another all-time high.
There is no reason we can’t keep going higher. What has changed besides the economic picture looking a little brighter, and the threat of more easy monetary policy coming from Japan and UK? Futures were red this morning but has turned green on stronger retail sales numbers.
AMZN and AAPL performed great yesterday morning, but faded mid-day. AMZN is one to watch going forward as it looks ready to finally head towards that $300 mark. I still love SODA and had a little article yesterday : https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2013/sodastreamsoda-shares-set-to-rally/
We still have our 52.50 calls and will keep hope as long as we stay above 50 today. I still love SAM, and BREW had some nice earnings after hours. BUD was also upgraded this morning so SAM should get some legs today. MLNX has been on a tear... boy did i have that one wrong. Just goes to show you as hard as you try, its not easy to take emotion out of a trade.
Here are some of the analyst changes today(I add symbols as per Lavander’s request)
BUD AB InBev price target raised to $112 from $94 at Stifel Nicolaus
After meeting with AB InBev's CFO, Stifel Nicolaus increased its target on the stock, citing its pro forma Modelo estimates and its estimate for high single digit EBITDA growth. If the Modelo deal does not go through, Stifel said it would likely revise its target and view the high $80s as an attractive risk/reward ratio for the shares. The firm maintains a Buy rating on AB InBev.
ORCL Oracle upgraded to Buy from Hold at Canaccord
Canaccord upgraded Oracle based on expectations that hardware segment revenue will increase in the next quarter or two and that valuation is at a discount. Price target is $42
DMND Diamond Foods upgraded to Hold from Underperform at Jefferies
Jefferies upgraded Diamond Foods to Hold citing the company's ability to improve margins. The firm raised its price target for shares to $15 from $11
DFS Discover upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at FBR Capital
FBR Capital upgraded Discover citing higher receivables growth and better net interest margin. The firm raised its price target for shares to $48 from $42.
Coach upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup
Citigroup upgraded Coach citing a favorable risk/reward profile and keeps a $56 price target for shares
As it will be for the next 2 days, the watchlist will be small. Here is what I am watching this morning:
|Stock Ticker||Call/Put||Strike||Expiration||Closing Price||Entry Price|
Will also watch SAM for move higher as well as OPEN and add positions accordingly. Lets have a great day!
Let me start by saying I own $HLF puts, currently the $41 strike that expire this week. I plan on adding April puts on any bounce this week. The trade is already profitable and will increase in value if $HLF continues to fall, as I think it will.
I believe Carl Icahn's purchases in $HLF stock, he now owns over 16 million shares, are backed more by emotion than anything else. I've learned over the years that buying something when your emotions are at play usually turns out to be a bad move. The wildcard is his deep pockets, experience, and the legacy of Carl Icahn. The odds are clearly stacked against the bears but I think the trade for now is for downside.
The chart for $HLF remains decidedly bearish. Short term we have an ascending wedge that should send the stock back to at least $35 and possibly lower. Longer term we have a trend line from $70, the stocks all time high, that remains well in place. Each spike over the last two months has hit this trendline almost perfectly and then faded. A firm break of this trendline will send me running for the hills, but for now my strategy is to remain in my current put position, add to it via April puts, likely $37/$38 strike, over the next few days or weeks.
When Carl Icahn announced his position in $HLF several weeks ago, the stock was trading at $38 and spiked the next day pre-market to almost $49. Everyone was calling right there for this massive short squeeze. It was going to be historic. The stock was going to $100 in a few days. It was going to be the trade of the century. That massive squeeze never materialized. After being up pre-market the stock opened sharply higher but fell the rest of the day as hedge fund managers like Daniel Leob were selling out of $HLF for a nice profit. The stock continues to melt lower, and on some days, like today, we get a rumor or a small news piece that creates a spike that is quickly faded.
Should $HLF trade for a higher price per share? We have a legendary investor taking a massive position in a stock that has a giant short position. We have a company that has done nothing but grow, a company that is in the early stages of a $1 billion share buy back program. We have numerous analysts and hedge fund managers saying the stock is under valued, it should be at much higher levels. The stock seemingly has no where to go but up. Yet $HLF still can not break out of its downtrend. Until that downtrend breaks, I will be a buyer of puts. I think the current turn lower will find support at $35. If that price doesn't hold this stock could hit new multi-year lows before the summer is here.