Futures are pointing to a higher open as I write this, with S&P futures up .72%, as markets look to resume a bounce that started last week. Asia markets closed lower overnight, led by the Hang Seng's 6% drop, after President Xi was confirmed for a 3rd term and installed loyalists. A nice read here : https://www.wsj.com/articles/hong-kong-stocks-dive-after-china-party-meeting-11666588451?mod=hp_lead_pos3 . Europe indexes are in the green this morning. The US dollar is higher while Yields, Oil, and Gold are lower.
Stocks finally found some footing last week, with the S&P rallying nearly 5%, as the earnings season so far is coming in better than feared. Last weekend it seemed, based on all the headlines, that a market crash was imminent. Funny how the market works. That $350 handle on the SPY continues to be my line in the sand. If stocks can find some more footing this week, the 50dma maybe back in play at $387. There is a slew of earnings that could provide a catalyst with most of the mega-cap tech names set to report like MSFT, AAPL, AMZN, META, ect, We also get the first read on 3Q GDP. Will be an interesting and busy week for sure:
And the SPY Weekly with that $350 handle:
Like I mentioned, it is a huge week for earnings. Here are some of the implied moves:
Of the names reporting, I really like DECK, DXCM, and SPOT.
DECK has been showing some relative strength since May. Think any decent report and the stock trades north of $400. May look to add some calls for their earnings on Thursday with the plan to close some out for premium build before the close:
SPOT posted great results last Q but has still found sellers. Think another beat and raise and the stock trades north of $120:
And lastly, DXCM reports Thursday after the close. It is holding its 200dma and looks poised to revisit the $100s on any decent report:
I closed the last of my AMLX calls on Friday. I was hoping to add some November strikes but did not like how it was trading. Will be watching this week to possibly add some $40 and/or $45 strikes. Think it has churned thru the sellers and will really find some mojo once it breaks $40:
ZYME held up on Friday despite the analyst downgrade. Still think this heads higher but will use the $5.90 handle as a possible stop:
Here are the analyst changes of note for today:
| First Solar price target lowered to $138 from $152 at BofA |
| BofA analyst Julien Dumoulin-Smith lowered the firm's price target on First Solar to $138 from $152 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares ahead of the Q3 earnings report. Management will deliver its first quarterly update since the Inflation Reduction Act passed in August, and Dumoulin-Smith notes that the U.S. solar panel supply backdrop remains constrained given the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act, polysilicon supply debottlenecking yet to materialize, the ongoing AD/CVD investigation, and elevated solar panel demand. These challenges unequivocally support elevated pricing and demand for First Solar panels, with the company insulated from the aforementioned headwinds, the analyst tells investors in a research note |
| Meta Platforms removed from 'US 1 List' at BofA |
| BofA removed Meta Platforms from the firm's "US 1 List" in conjunction with the stock having been downgraded to a Neutral rating. The list is intended to represent a collection of the best investment ideas drawn from the universe of Buy-rated, U.S.-listed stocks covered by BofA Global Research fundamental equity research analysts. As previously reported, BofA analyst Justin Post downgraded Meta Platforms to Neutral from Buy with a price target of $150, down from $196 |
| Etsy price target raised to $100 from $83 at UBS |
| UBS analyst Kunal Madhukar raised the firm's price target on Etsy to $100 from $83 but keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. A survey of sellers suggests that trends may have gotten modestly worse in the past three months as core Etsy gross merchandise sales, GMS, declined in the first half and the management guided to another decline in Q3, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Madhukar is raising his GMS expectations modestly however to better reflect historical seasonality and also rolls forward his base year for Etsy valuation to 2024 from 2023 |
| Vertex Pharmaceuticals price target raised to $327 from $319 at JPMorgan |
| JPMorgan analyst Jessica Fye raised the firm's price target on Vertex Pharmaceuticals to $327 from $319 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The analyst sees a "dynamic period ahead" for large cap U.S. biotechnology companies with "multiple key launches approaching across the group that will shape growth, diversification, durability, and margins over the rest of the decade and beyond." Fye updated estimates and price targets for seven names in the sector |
And here is what I am watching today: SPOT, DXCM, DECK, AMLX, GWW, U, TWLO, SPOT, ROKU, NFLX, CMG, WING, WIX, and CI.
Let's have a great day!
-JB