Futures are pointing to a green start to the week, with the S&P set to open .36% higher as I write this. Asia markets closed lower overnight while Europe indexes are trading up this morning. The Dollar is higher while Yields, Oil, and Gold are all lower.
And this is what UPB is reading this morning: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/morning-reads-338/
Markets were able to close higher for the 2nd week in a row - 3rd week if you include the Nasdaq - all despite the geopolitical tensions in the middle-east and higher than expected inflation data. This week the earnings season picks up with names like NFLX, TSLA, GS, JNJ, and others reporting. We also get retail sales numbers tomorrow morning. I know I sound like a broken record here, but think that $415-$416 handle on the SPY is still a short-term target. Doesn't mean I won't be playing calls, just means I will be very selective when I do. The last two sessions saw the market reverse morning highs. Will be watching for a repeat of that action today. If markets somehow remain bid today and tomorrow that $437.22 area from last week will be strong resistance:
Here are the implied moves for earnings this week:
I added MDB puts on Thursdays a hedge for market downside. MDB opened higher on Friday but then reversed course over $16 to close down nearly 4%. I used to the move to close my puts out for 200% and 300%+. It's not that I don't think MDB may trade higher in the coming months, just tends to be a great name to play for downside when the market is weak. Will be on watch again today for some possible spec puts for a move to $330 or so:
I also added some LRCX spec puts on Friday with NVDA reversing morning gains and was able to close the puts for 300%. Another name I will be watching closely for some more spec puts in the coming days:
I also locked in most of my TZA calls for over 100%. The IWM is still under that $174 trap-door. Will be looking to close the rest of my calls out and possibly add some later strikes:
Still riding the last of my SHW puts that expire Friday. PPG, the largest coatings company in the world, will report earnings after the close on Wednesday and could certainly have an impact on SHW. I will likely look to close the last of my Oct puts and look for some Nov strikes today for that eventual $230 test:
AVAV was gapping higher on Friday after a positive analyst note from William Blair. It is pretty obvious that conflicts in the world only help with the drone demand. I was eyeing calls on Friday but passed. May revisit today for a potential move north of $120 in the coming days and $125+ in the next few weeks:
Not much to add on WW. Despite the 3 session losing streak to end the week the stock still finished up over 5%. Hopefully can get back over that $12 handle and this week(and beyond):
A nice weekly chart that helps take out some of the daily noise:
Still have my AZO puts and added DPZ puts into this week. Will need some red in the next few days and will be looking for later strikes on AZO as well.
And lastly, with NFLX reporting after the bell Wednesday, ROKU could be a nice sympathy trade for a possible upside bounce. Of course take with a grain of salt, I have tried a few times for the sympathy move... but one of these days it will happen:
And here is what I am watching today: NFLX, ROKU, PPG, SHW, MDB, LRCX, TZA, VKTX, LLY, NVO, TWLO, AZO, ULTA, ORLY, NOW, SITE, MELI, ADBE, AVGO, WIX, ALGN, SPOT, OKTA, CMG, QQQ, BLK and TEAM.
Let's have a great day!
-Jb