October 11th, 2022 Watch List

Markets closed lower on Monday, with the S&P closing down .75% in a choppy trade. Asia markets closed in the red overnight while Europe indexes are also in the red but off the lows. U.S. futures are pointing to a lower open as I write this, the Dollar and Oil are lower while Yields and Gold are higher.

And my rant from yesterday if you missed it:

The S&P fell for the 4th session in a row, as Yields rose ahead of big CPI data on Thursday and a slew of earnings to kick off the Q3 earnings season. The SPY found a bid after Fed Chair Brainard made some comments, but couldn't hold the gains. Of course the SPY closed right at the $360 handle. Will be important for that area to hold today:

PTON rallied after the open and I used the move to close the last of my $9 strikes for nearly 300%. I then went and added some strikes into next week, but stopped out for a loss after the stock reversed course into the $8.60s. I will continue to watch for some more opportunities to play it on the long side. As I talked about on my rant, think there will be renewed buyout chatter:

APRN had some news this morning:

The stocks is gapping higher in the pre-market. Not going to add any more strikes as of yet but hopefully this can kick start the stock, and get some shorts to start covering(or at least stop shorting).

As discussed on yesterdays watchlist, I went and added some DPZ puts yesterday. The plan is to be able to lock some in to cover costs before tomorrows close for earnings Thursday morning. If I don't get that opportunity, may look to close the position out and revisit post earnings. Think a miss on earnings and weak guidance and the stock can trades sub $280:

Still eyeing GNRC here. The stock has now closed lower 4 sessions in a row but had a doji candle yesterday. If it finds some green at the open could be the start of a bounce:

TWLO could not find any support at the 50dma yesterday and closed down over 6%. Odd that it held up well on Friday's carnage but then was pressured all day yesterday despite the market trading in the green at times. Still watching this one for possible call opportunities:

Still love WING here. It received a PT upgrade this morning from DB

May look to add some more calls, possibly November strikes, for some premium build into their earnings on Oct 26th:

Here are the analyst changes of note for today:

Nutanix upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Cleveland Research
Cleveland Research analyst Ben Bollin upgraded Nutanix to Buy from Neutral, citing better fundamentals and expected share gains
Moody's price target lowered to $303 from $321 at Raymond James
Raymond James analyst Patrick O'Shaughnessy lowered the firm's price target on Moody's to $303 from $321 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. Rising interest rates and widening credit spreads continue to pose a meaningful headwind for the ratings business, and Q3 was a "remarkably weak" quarter for bond issuance, with growth declining double digits y/y across the board, O'Shaughnessy tells investors in a research note
Sherwin-Williams price target lowered to $257 from $280 at BofA
BofA analyst Steve Byrne lowered the firm's price target on Sherwin-Williams to $257 from $280 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm is cutting estimates in U.S. chemicals in-line with the global slowdown, noting that the U.S. dollar has strengthened significantly, European energy prices have spiked, higher interest rates have driven a decline in the momentum of housing activity, and lower levels of discretionary capital have resulted in sharp declines in spending on consumer electronics, durables, and construction. Commodity chemical valuations are nearing great financial crisis lows, but traditional indicators "are yet to flip bullish," Byrne added in his co-authored sector note
CA Prop 27 failure would remove major bear case of DraftKings, says Oppenheimer
Oppenheimer analyst Jed Kelly notes that DraftKings shares traded off 14% on Monday, underperforming the broader market, which he partially attributes to a Wall Street Journal article indicating OSB operators are canceling television ads supporting Prop 27 on low polling results. He was somewhat surprised with DraftKings selling off more than peers, given that since mid-September, polling data for both CA sports betting measures, Prop-26 and Prop-27, are trending toward voters opposing both measures. Kelly believes both measures do not pass, and that the most likely scenario is the mobile operators and tribes negotiate terms for a unified measure that carry a similar taxes/licensing structure to legalized states with a large tribal presence such as CT and MI. While the most populous state not legalizing OSB sooner can be a perceived negative, the analyst believes it removes a major Bear case of DraftKings needing another capital raise to market into CA. If the CA timing is pushed back 2-3 years, he sees DraftKings being in a better position to enter CA with more states generating positive contribution profit and higher brand awareness from national TV campaigns. He has an Outperform rating on DraftKings shares

Wingstop price target raised to $135 from $117 at Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank analyst Brian Mullan raised the firm's price target on Wingstop to $135 from $117 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares ahead of the Q3 results. The analyst thinks investor expectations call for a Q3 domestic same-store-sales result that is in-line with to perhaps modestly below the current consensus estimate of up 1.5%

And here is what I am watching today: WING, GNRC, BLK, APRN, PTON, ROKU, TWLO, SPOT,  TZA, CMG, U, WIX, CI, TRIP, SAGE, and PTCT.

Let's have a great day!


JimmyBob (Scott)has been trading equities for over 15 years, a majority of which were OTC micro-cap stocks. He started trading high risk stock options over the past 7 years, and has proven winning trades in excess of 15,000%.

As one of the Co-Founders of optionmillionaires.com, Scott enjoys sharing his knowledge with other investors through timely blog posts, daily watch lists in the forum, weekly webinars, and helpful advice within the chatroom.

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