Markets rallied on Monday, with the S&P adding 1.3% to recoup some of Friday's losses. Asia markets closed lower overnight while Europe indexes are also in the red this morning. U.S. futures are pointing to a near 1% drop at the open as the Moderna CEO expressed concern that the Covid vaccines will not work well against the Omicron variant. It is not like $4.7 billion of the $4.9 billion in revenues Moderna had this year are from the Covid vaccine or anything. And a new booster would likely add billions more to their revenues. What good would it do for Moderna if the CEO did not express any concern? The US dollar, Yields, and Oil are lower while Gold is higher. Work from home stocks are also being bid this morning.
And this is what UPB is reading this morning : Tuesday Morning Reads
It has been an interesting last few months as names that were darlings of Wallstreet in 2020 and the start of this year have fallen off the map. Many are down off 50% and more despite the market right near all time highs. A nice quick read here with the list of some of the names including Zillow - 74%, Peleton -73%, Samuel Adams -66%, Teledoc -64%, Beyond Meat -65%, and on and on. Ironically, the one all the bears have said is a zero is up 61% so far this year... TSLA:
Yesterday was one of those days I just sat on my hands with the market gapping and stocks being rangebound for most of the session. The SPY nestled right in between the highs and lows of the day forming a Doji candle:
DKNG and ROKU traded lower yesterday and their pinchers are tighter:
Still eyeing both if the markets find footing this morning. ROKU is actually getting a small bid this morning as WFM names are higher.
Both MA and V are back to testing 52 week lows on concerns of the new Covid variant, which I think is just expediting a move that would have happened regardless,. MA is under $320 this morning and could finally see a test of $300 this week. May look at some speculative puts at the open:
MA long view:
MA short view:
As I mentioned yesterday, if the market fails to find a bid, think the names that have held up well during the last week of volatility will start to get sold. Names like TEAM, NOW, PANW, and possibly GOOGL. All four are pricey on the put side so will be patient but don't be surprised if you see me adds some TEAM $370 or so puts, NOW $630 or so puts, PANW 520 or so puts, and GOOGL $2750 or so puts. TEAM is actually showing a potential bear-flag setup:
Here are the analyst changes of note for today:
| Twitter leadership changes 'step in right direction,' says Jefferies | |
| Jefferies analyst Brent Thill said he views Jack Dorsey's resignation and the appointments of CTO Parag Agrawal as CEO and Bret Taylor as Chairman of the Board as positives for the stock and a "step in the right direction." While he believes the new leadership could reinvigorate growth and help deliver on management's initial FY23 goals, he still sees "plenty of hurdles to clear" for Twitter to improve on its sluggish pace of ad product innovation and reverse its stock underperformance relative to peers. Thill has a Hold rating and $70 price target on Twitter shares | |
| DMC Global upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Sidoti | |
| Sidoti upgraded DMC Global to Buy from Neutral with a $52 price target | |
| Boot Barn assumed with a Buy at Jefferies | |
| Jefferies analyst Corey Tarlowe assumed coverage of Boot Barn with a Buy rating with a price target of $150, up from $120. The company has established a defensible market position in "a highly fragmented and niche western specialty retail industry" and he sees significant sales opportunity for Boot Barn, Tarlowe tells investors. He sees market share gains continuing in the near-term as Boot Barn remains advantaged versus smaller competitors, the analyst added | |
| TJX assumed with a Buy at Jefferies | |
| Jefferies analyst Corey Tarlowe assumed coverage of TJX with a Buy rating and $90 price target. TJX should benefit from the secular migration toward the off-price sector, which will likely lead to share gains from other, more traditional retailers, Tarlowe tells investors. He also views Home and international expansion as "unique growth opportunities" for TJX, the analyst added | |
| Burlington Stores assumed with a Buy at Jefferies | |
| Jefferies analyst Corey Tarlowe assumed coverage of Burlington Stores with a Buy rating and $410 price target. The company's significant sales and margin runway, given its position as "the smallest and least profitable" of the major off-price retailers, is not yet fully factored into estimates, contends Tarlowe | |
| Foot Locker assumed with a Buy at Jefferies | |
| Jefferies analyst Corey Tarlowe assumed coverage of Foot Locker with a Buy rating and $80 price target. He sees Foot Locker benefiting from general strength in the athletic footwear and apparel space and also believes that its ownership stake in GOAT provides "a level of support for the company's valuation," Tarlowe tells investors | |
| Zumiez assumed with a Hold at Jefferies | |
| Jefferies analyst Corey Tarlowe assumed coverage of Zumiez with a Hold rating with a price target of $52, up from $42. He sees the company being on "the back-end of a skate boom" that had driven significant growth, but the hardgoods category is now tracking down year-over-year against tough comparisons, Tarlowe said. He sees less opportunity in Zumiez than in other specialty apparel retailers without a clear sustainable top-line catalyst or path towards margin improvement in FY23, added the analyst | |
And here is what I am watching today: DKNG, ROKU, IQV, TWLO, SPOT, MA, V, TEAM, NOW, PANW, GOOGL, and BURL.
Let's have a great day!
-JB