Markets fell again on Tuesday, with the S&P losing .41%. Asia markets rallied overnight while Europe stocks are mixed this morning. U.S. futures are pointing to a slightly lower open, the Dollar and Yields are lower while Oil and Gold are higher.
And this is what UPB is reading this morning: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/morning-reads-132/
And here is my rant from yesterday if you missed it: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/jbs-afternoon-rant-november-1st-2022/
Stocks opened higher yesterday, looking to rally, only to stage a reversal after stronger than expected economic data. Seems good news continues to be bad news for now. This morning the ADP employment report came out better than expected ahead of the October jobs report Friday. Futures found some pressure after the report. Maybe the sign of a bottom will be when one of these better than expected reports is met with buyers. Today is the much anticipated Fed statement and press conference. Would say this is probably less anticipated than the September meeting but could still move markets. I think if Powell is able to spin a less than hawkish tone, stocks will can rally. More hawkish rhetoric and markets may find pressure with that $381.50 being key support:
As outlined on yesterdays watchlist, I went and added some ISRG calls for a sympathy move on the JNJ/ABMD deal. Surprised some of the med-tech names didn't rally more yesterday with that 50% premium on the deal. May actually look to add some calls into next week for a move to $260+:
I also went and added some U calls. Think it is only a matter of time before this rockets into the mid-high $30s and beyond. Will continue to look for other strikes to play for that move:
ZYME tested the $7 handle before bouncing after an analyst downgrade. The stock is holding strong for once. A good sign and think a move into the double-digits is coming soon:
Still holding my TNDM calls. They report after the close today. Would really like to take some/all of the risk off into the report. May look to close my calls and add some weekly spec calls. Still think the stock rallies after the report today into the $60s and beyond:
Still eyeing SHAK into their earnings tomorrow morning but the stock has not been cooperating. May just wait until the report tomorrow before adding a position:
And lastly, ROKU reports after the close today. If you listened to my rants over the years you know my thoughts on the name. Premiums are high so tough to find a decent risk/reward position but don't be surprised if I add some calls before the close for a potential move back into the $70s.
Here are the analyst changes of note for today:
| Bernstein analysis shows Tesla total software run rate revenues of $290M/quarter |
| Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi says that his analysis indicates that Tesla's total software run rate revenues are about $290M/quarter or 1.3% of total company revenues and less than 5% of gross profits. His analysis suggests that FSD attach rates are currently low, though adding Enhanced Autopilot likely brings the total to 10%-12%. He estimates that Tesla has $1.7B in deferred revenue from Autopilot/FSD sales on its balance sheet. The bull case on Tesla and SW is that Tesla is able to deliver complete FSD functionality before anyone else, dramatically increasing attach rates, Sacconaghi contends. At 50% FSD attach rate, Tesla would recognize an average of $7,500 in FSD SW per car, pointing to upside to its current stock price, he adds. The analyst has an Underperform rating and a price target of $150 on the shares |
| iRhythm price target lowered to $144 from $147 at Citi |
| Citi analyst Joanne Wuensch lowered the firm's price target on iRhythm to $144 from $147 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares post the Q3 results |
Alteryx price target raised to $75 from $73 at Citi |
| Citi analyst Tyler Radke raised the firm's price target on Alteryx to $75 from $73 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares post the Q3 results. Amid a software demand landscape that is seeing incremental pressure on new business, Alteryx's continued strong NNARR growthand absence of rapidly slowing growth demonstrate that the company's self-help tailwinds and broader secular trends around prioritization for data/analytics are helping counter the macro headwinds, Radke tells investors in a research note |
| AMD price target lowered to $95 from $102 at Mizuho |
| Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered the firm's price target on AMD to $95 from $102 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The company issued a "soft" outlook for Q4 with data center strong and PC weak, Rakesh tells investors in a research note. The analyst says the PC market is yet to bottom |
| Cardlytics price target lowered to $7 from $15 at Craig-Hallum |
| Craig-Hallum analyst Jason Kreyer lowered the firm's price target on Cardlytics (CDLX) to $7 from $15 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. The analyst notes macro conditions have worsened as consumer spending continues to pull back. Problems were exacerbated by the loss of Starbucks (SBUX), a formerly large client in the restaurant category, Kreyer adds, pointing out that pulling down his growth targets now presents more liquidity challenges as losses and cash burn remain problematic |
AMD Q3 'could have been worse,' but 'coast isn't clear,' says Northland |
| After AMD reported Q3 non-GAAP earnings of 67c that beat his estimate of 53c and missed the consensus view of 70c and guided below consensus, as expected, on PC and Gaming weakness, Northland analyst Gus Richard said it "could have been worse," but added that this "doesn't mean the coast is clear." While the inventory correction for the most part is currently contained to the PC market, he thinks it is likely to expand to the data center and the embedded businesses, said Richard, who keeps a Market Perform rating and $60 price target on AMD shares |
OrthoPediatrics price target lowered to $60 from $70 at JMP Securities |
| JMP Securities analyst David Turkaly lowered the firm's price target on OrthoPediatrics to $60 from $70 but keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The company generated 22% organic sales growth in Q3 and its recent acquisitions contributed more than initially expected, but its management also stated that Respiratory Syncytial Virus, or RSV, has kept many children's hospitals at 80-90% of normal capacity beginning in September and carrying into October, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Turkaly maintains however that OrthoPediatrics is a differentiated participant in the largely underserviced pediatric-orthopedic industry, with the potential to achieve further penetration in its base markets and enter complementary, attractive orthopedic arenas |
And here is what I am watching today: TNDM, SHAK, ROKU, PTON, U, ISRG, AXNX, HUM, CI, PZZA, WING, SPOT, and CMG
Let's have a great day!
-JB