Stocks closed higher for the second session in a row, with the S&P adding .65%. Asia markets finished in the green overnight while Europe indexes are mixed this morning. U.S. futures are pointing to a flat open, the Dollar and Oil are higher while Yields and Gold are lower.
And this is what UPB is reading this morning: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/morning-reads-348/
Stocks chopped around after the open yesterday, then found some buyers for the rest of the session to close in the green. Are these past two sessions the start of a sustained move off a bottom or just a relief rally? I think the latter, but today and the rest of the week will go a long way in determining that. Today is Fed day. Markets are pricing in a 97% probability of no rate hike at this meeting and a 69% probability of no hike at December's meeting. Odds have been pushed out until May 2024 of any possible rate cut. Will be interesting to see how Powell spins the 'higher for longer' picture he has been painting with the new Geopolitical issues. If he is able to come out dovish, maybe markets can rally up to the $420 handle on the SPY. It is the start of November so the debt ceiling chatter will start picking up as well. I think the next possible catalyst could be another U.S. credit downgrade so hopefully something can get passed to kick the can down the road further. That $415-416 handle on the SPY will be key support today. Think now $398 is coming before the year is out and then a bounce:
The IWM continues to look like garbage:
I went and added some puts yesterdays. Think a move under $160 is coming quick:
MDB and SHW both closed higher yesterday with the market. Two sessions do not change my bearish sentiment on both. Still think MDB can come down to $300 if the market finds sellers:
And SHW into the $220s and below in the coming days:
Finally a Green Day for WW, albeit a small one. Earnings tomorrow. If it can hold green again today will look for those later dated calls:
EXAS reports after the close today and SQ reports after the close tomorrow. Still eyeing some possible spec calls on both. PYPL reports earnings after the close so could certainly cause a sympathy move in SQ. Any decent updates from PYPL and think SQ trades near $45 and possibly higher after their earnings tomorrow:
EXAS rallied over 4% yesterday. Think any positive update and it trades up past $70. EXAS is such a great story:
As I have mentioned the past few days, will be keeping things small until I feel more confident on market direction. I would love to be nibbling some out-of-the-money calls for a rally into the end of the year... hoping that can happen soon.
And here is what I am watching today: WW, SQ, EXAS, V, MA. MDB, AZO, LRCX, LULU, ROKU, PPG, TZA, LLY, NVO, TWLO, AZO, ULTA, ORLY, NOW, SITE, MELI, ADBE, AVGO, WIX, OKTA, CMG, QQQ, BLK and TEAM.
Let's have a great day!
-JB