Markets closed higher on Friday, with the S&P finishing the day up .92% and adding to Thursday's rally. Asia markets closed in the green overnight while Europe indexes are higher as I write this. U.S. futures are pointing to a lower open, the Dollar and Yields are higher while Oil and Gold is lower.
Stocks rallied last week, with a cooler than expected CPI number providing the catalyst. The S&P was up nearly 6% on the week while the Nasdaq closed up over 8%. The argument over the weekend is whether this is just another bear market bounce or finally the bottom. We won't have an answer for months but if there is one thing it did, it was to provide opportunities on the short-term call side. Take a look at some of these moves from last week:
There is not much in the way of catalysts until the next Fed meeting in December, so can see the market melting higher over the next few weeks. The 200dma looks like the next area of resistance. Once that is broken the August levels should come into play around $425 or so:
Earnings seasons is winding down, with a bunch of retailers set to report this week including TGT, LOW, HD, KSS, and others. :
TGT has already painted a bleak picture so any inline numbers and the stock could rally. HD was up over 10% last week and could be set for another leg higher as well. Not one to typically trade these names but think there could be an opportunity to play for upside so don't be surprised if you see me add calls.
I was able to close most of my FVRR calls on Friday for 300%, 500%, and 600%. I held the last into this week as I think the name could trade north of $40. Will use $37.50 or so as a stop:
I was able to close my U calls out on Friday for a small gain. The exit seemed smart at the moment considering I thought the position would expire bidless. Instead U continued its rally to close in the $32s. The calls I closed at $0.70 hit $3 at points in the afternoon. Still like the name and think a move into the mid-high $30s is possible. Will be watching for more opportunities this week to play for upside:
ZYME closed at 52 week highs on Friday and still looks ready for a test of the double-digits. Will be looking to close my November strikes today/tomorrow and add some December calls:
Roche announced some negative data on their Alzheimer's dug ganteneruma. This should be net positive for BIIB. The stock is gapping this morning and think a test of $315-$320 is possible. May add some calls at the open:
Still eyeing AXON, SPOT, ROKU, WING, DPZ, and CMG for calls as well.
Here are the analyst changes of note for today:
| Equifax price target raised to $230 from $190 at Needham |
| Needham analyst Kyle Peterson raised the firm's price target on Equifax to $230 from $190 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The analyst is citing his findings from investor meetings with the company management which indicate that Equifax has significantly diversified its business since the last economic downturn. Equifax has enough recession-resistant and counter-cyclical business to be able to grow revenue and earnings even in the event of an economic downturn in FY23, Peterson tells investors in a research note, adding that he also remains bullish on the positive impacts that the ongoing cloud transformation projects will have on earnings and cash flow starting in the second half of next yea |
| BioMarin Voxzogo concerns lowered by Ascendis data, says Morgan Stanley |
| After Ascendis (ASND) reported Phase 2 TransCon CNP data that was "positive, but below Voxzogo," Morgan Stanley analyst Matthew Harrison said TransCon CNP achieving lower AHV compared to Voxzogo is likely to limit investor concerns around competition for BioMarin's (BMRN) treatment. Harrison expects Ascendis to develop the product with its recently announced Phase 2b program, but believe if successful Ascendis is about five years from market and expects BioMarin shares to be higher following the news. Harrison has an Overweight rating and $113 price target on BioMarin shares, which are up $3.83, or 5%, to $85.99 in Monday pre-market trading. |
| JPMorgan cuts iPhone forecast, sees possible Apple 'buying opportunities' |
| JPMorgan analyst Samik Chatterjee says the impact of the recent supply chain challenges faced by Apple in relation to operations at Hon Hai's assembly facility in Zhengzhou, China are tough to quantify. However, he moderated his iPhone shipment for the December quarter to 74M from 82M, and now forecasts fiscal Q1 iPhone and total revenues to decline year-over-year. Chatterjee believes the "limited impact on demand" for the iPhone 14 product cycle through fiscal 2023 and the opportunity to address the shortfall in the March quarter "might give long-term investors several attractive buying opportunities into the shares through to the year-end." Chatterjee keeps an Overweight rating on Apple with a $200 price targe |
| Okta price target lowered to $70 from $85 at Canaccord |
| Canaccord analyst T. Michael Walkley lowered the firm's price target on Okta to $70 from $85 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares |
| arnival price target raised to $16 from $8 at UBS |
| UBS analyst Robin Farley raised the firm's price target on Carnival to $16 from $8 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares as part of a broader research note on Cruise Lines. Stronger demand since the lifting of Covid restrictions in the last 8 weeks has led to significantly higher booking volumes, the analyst tells investors in a research note, also rolling forward her model's valuation year to 2024 from 2023 |
And here is what I am watching today: ZYME, BIIB, TGT, HD, FVRR, LOW, WING, DPZ, ROKU, U, WIX, AXON, NFLX SPOT, ISRG, AXNX, HUM, CI, PZZA, and TZA.
Let's have a great day!
-JB