- War Colliding With Recession
- The UK’s Crisis Is Threatening the Global Inflation Fight
- Kwasi Kwarteng Out as UK Chancellor
- Inflation Is Unrelenting, Bad News for the Fed and White House
- Inflation Report Seals Case
- Why Social Security’s Inflation Protection Is Priceless
- Retirees Catch a Break With the Social Security COLA
- Private Bets
- BofA Strategists See More Pain in Store Before Stocks Reach Low
- Investing for Your Values, but Betting on Growth
- Computer Buyers Curtail Purchases After Pandemic Splurge
- Kroger, Albertsons Forge $24.6 Billion Grocery Giant Combination
- Chinese Drone Billionaire’s Dominance Threatened by US Blacklists
- It Shouldn’t Matter So Much Whether Elon Musk Buys Twitter
- Want to Get Ahead? Pick the Right Company
- Netflix to Get Nielsen Ratings
- A Pair of Levi’s
- AVANGRID (AGR) upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Mizuho; tgt lowered to $39
- Carlisle Cos (CSL) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse; tgt $363
- Delta Air Lines (DAL) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Cowen; tgt $54
- Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (AMBP) downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital Mkts; tgt lowered to $5
- Beacon Roofing Supply (BECN) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Robert W. Baird; tgt lowered to $65
- Berkshire Hills Bancorp (BHLB) downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at Piper Sandler; tgt lowered to $29
- AbbVie (ABBV) named Catalyst driven idea at Morgan Stanley
- Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) placed on 90-day Positive Catalyst Watch at Citigroup
- Amprius Technologies (AMPX) initiated with an Outperform at Oppenheimer; tgt $14
- AppLovin (APP) initiated with an Outperform at Wedbush; tgt $26
- Blue Owl Capital (OWL) initiated with an Overweight at Piper Sandler; tgt $16
- Cutera (CUTR) resumed with an Overweight at Stephens; tgt $78
- Establishment Labs (ESTA) resumed with an Overweight at Stephens; tgt $90
- Glaukos (GKOS) resumed with an Overweight at Stephens; tgt $69
- Micron (MU) initiated with a Buy at Loop Capital; tgt $70
- Origin Materials (ORGN) initiated with an Outperform at Credit Suisse; tgt $7
- ProKidney Corp. (PROK) initiated with a Buy at Citigroup; tgt $16
- STAAR Surgical (STAA) resumed with an Overweight at Stephens; tgt $91
- Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse; tgt lowered to $79
S&P 500 futures are down 3 points and are trading roughly in-line fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 34 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 9 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value.
The equity futures market has been shifty this morning, rallying initially to press reports suggesting British Prime Minister Truss will scale back her fiscal stimulus plan at a press conference today at 9:00 a.m. ET. On a related note, it has been confirmed that Finance Minister Kwarteng has been dismissed after just 38 days in office.
The futures for the major indices have subsequently pulled back, however, as questions about the credibility/sustainability of yesterday's rally abound.
Dow components JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and UnitedHealth (UNH) posted better-than-expected results, but Morgan Stanley (MS) disappointed. Separately, Albertsons (ACI) is going to acquired by Kroger (KR) for $34.10/share in cash.
Treasury yields are pulling back this morning. The 2-yr note yield is down two basis points to 4.42% and the 10-yr note yield is down six basis points to 3.88%.
Market participants will receive the September Retail Sales (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%; prior 0.3%) and Retail Sales ex-auto (Briefing.com consensus 0.0%; prior -0.3%) at 8:30 a.m. ET.
Other data out this morning includes:
- 8:30 a.m. ET: September Import Prices (prior -1.0%), Import Prices ex-oil (prior -1.0%), September Export Prices (prior -1.6%), and September Export Prices ex-agriculture (prior -1.8%)
- 10:00 a.m. ET: August Business Inventories (Briefing.com consensus 0.9%; prior 0.6%) and preliminary October University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey (Briefing.com consensus 58.6; prior 58.6)
In corporate news:
- JPMorgan Chase (JPM 111.53, +2.16, +1.97%): beats by $0.27, beats on revs; Expect 4Q22 net interest income of ~$19B and FY2022 of ~$66B, market dependent
- Morgan Stanley (MS 77.45, -1.87, -2.36%): misses by $0.04, misses on revs
- Wells Fargo (WFC 42.92, +0.54, +1.27%): beats by $0.21, beats on revs
- UnitedHealth (UNH 514.73, +4.82, +0.95%): beats by $0.35, reports revs in-line; guides FY22 EPS in-line
- PNC (PNC 154.52, +3.05, +2.01%): beats by $0.09, beats on revs; issues downside guidance for Q4 (Dec)
- Boeing (BA 134.09, +1.69, +1.28%): United (UAL) aiming to purchase 100 widebody jets, according to Bloomberg
- Albertsons (ACI 27.90, -0.73, -2.55%): to be acquired by Kroger (KR); ACI shareholders to receive total consideration of $34.10/share; cash component of the $34.10 per share consideration will be reduced by the per share amount of the special cash dividend, which is expected to be approximately $6.85 per share
- McDonald's (MCD 247.62, +0.87, +0.35%): raises quarterly dividend by 10% to $1.52 per share
- Beyond Meat (BYND 13.65, -1.13, -7.65%): lowers outlook; cuts workforce; targeting cash flow positive in 2H23; disclosed Philip E. Hardin notified the Company that he is stepping down as the Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer effective October 12, 2022 to pursue another opportunity
- Delta (DAL 31.23, +0.85, +2.80%): Cowen upgrades to Outperform from Market Perform
Reviewing overnight developments:
- Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the week on a higher note. Japan's Nikkei: +3.3% (-0.1% for the week), Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +1.2% (-6.5% for the week), China's Shanghai Composite: +1.8% (+1.6% for the week), India's Sensex: +1.2% (-0.5% for the week), South Korea's Kospi: +2.3% (-0.9% for the week), Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +1.7% (-0.4% for the week).
- In economic data:
- China's September CPI 0.3% m/m (expected 0.4%; last -0.1%); 2.8% yr/yr, as expected (last 2.5%). September PPI 0.9% yr/yr (expected 1.0%; last 2.3%)
- South Korea's September Unemployment Rate 2.8% (expected 2.5%). September Import Price Index 24.1% yr/yr (last 22.9%) and Export Price Index 15.2% yr/yr (last 13.0%)
- India's September WPI Inflation 10.70% (expected 11.50%; last 12.41%)
- Singapore's Q3 GDP 1.5% qtr/qtr (last -0.2%); 4.4% yr/yr (expected 3.4%; last 4.5%)
- New Zealand's September Business NZ PMI 52.0 (expected 54.8)
- In news:
- Japan may reportedly lift its cap on the lifespan of nuclear reactors.
- Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda said that CPI is expected below 2.0% in 2023 and that now is not the appropriate time to raise rates.
- China Securities Journal speculated that the yuan will not depreciate in the medium to long term and that authorities have room to stabilize markets.
- In economic data:
- Major European indices trade in the green. STOXX Europe 600: +1.4% (+0.7% week-to-date), Germany's DAX: +1.4% (+2.0% week-to-date), U.K.'s FTSE 100: +1.4% (-0.7% week-to-date), France's CAC 40: +1.7% (+1.9% week-to-date), Italy's FTSE MIB: +1.5% (+1.0% week-to-date), Spain's IBEX 35: +1.6% (+0.4% week-to-date).
- In economic data:
- Eurozone's August trade deficit EUR50.90 bln (last deficit of EUR33.90 bln)
- Germany's September WPI 1.6% m/m (last 0.1%); 19.9% yr/yr (last 18.9%)
- France's September CPI -0.6% m/m (expected -0.5%; last 0.5%); 5.6% yr/yr, as expected (last 5.9%)
- Spain's September CPI -0.7% m/m (expected -0.6%; last 0.3%); 8.9% yr/yr (expected 9.0%; last 10.5%)
- In news:
- The U.K.'s 10-yr Gilt yield is down another 23 bps to 3.96% amid reports that British Prime Minister Truss will reverse her decision, allowing for the increase to the corporate tax rate.
- In addition, Chancellor Kwarteng has been dismissed after just 38 days in office.
- The Bank of England's emergency buying scheme is set to end today. Germany's economy ministry expects that a recession began in Q3 and will last for three quarters.
- In economic data:
U.S. equity futures:
- S&P 500 Futures: -5 @ 3,665
- DJIA Futures: +20 @ 30,059
- Nasdaq 100 Futures: -41 @ 10,993
- Europe: DAX +1.4%, FTSE +1.4%, CAC +1.7%
- Asia: Nikkei +3.3%, Hang Seng +1.2%, Shanghai Composite +1.8%
- Crude Oil -2.01 @ 87.10
- Nat Gas -0.092 @ 6.649
- Gold -14.60 @ 1662.40
- Silver -0.281 @ 18.637
- Copper -0.0070 @ 3.4328