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S&P 500 futures are up 49 points and are trading 1.4% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 182 points and are trading 1.6% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 318 points and are trading 1.2% above fair value.

Equity futures are behaving better this morning, leaving the cash market poised for a higher start. Market participants are getting some relief from the moderation in Treasury yields, price action in the currency market, and strength in the mega cap stocks. 

The 2-yr note yield is down ten basis points to 4.21% and the 10-yr note yield is down six basis points to 3.81%. The US Dollar Index is down 0.5% to 113.57 with GBP/USD +1.2% to 1.0811 and EUR/USD +0.4% to 0.9644. 

There's been some mixed Fed speak in play for participants to digest this morning. Chicago Fed President Evans (not an FOMC voter), who is retiring from his position in early 2023, acknowledged being a little nervous about the Fed raising rates too much, too fast, according to CNBC. Cleveland Fed President Mester (FOMC voter) said that a restrictive policy will be needed and for longer to ensure that inflation expectations do not move up and that inflation moves back down.

Energy complex futures move higher ahead of the open. WTI crude oil futures are up 1.7% to $78.00/bbl and natural gas futures are up 0.9% to $7.08/mmbtu.

Market participants will receive the following economic data today:

  • August Durable Orders (Briefing.com consensus -0.1%; prior 0.0.%) and Durable Orders, Excluding Transportation (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%; prior 0.3%) at 8:30 a.m. ET
  • July FHFA Housing Price Index (prior 0.1%) and July S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (Briefing.com consensus 17.0%; prior 18.6%) at 9:00 a.m. ET
  • September Consumer Confidence (Briefing.com consensus 105.0; prior 103.2) and August New Home Sales (Briefing.com consensus 500,000; prior 511,000) at 10:00 a.m. ET

In corporate news:

  • Biogen (BIIB 198.61, +2.86, +1.5%): agrees to pay $900 mln to resolve allegations regarding false claims to Medicare and Medicaid, according to DOJ
  • United Natural Foods (UNFI 39.50, +1.06, +2.8%): beats by $0.01, reports revs in-line; guides FY23 EPS in-line, revs in-line
  • Tesla (TSLA 282.13, +6.12, +2.2%): expects high volume of deliveries at end of Q3.
  • Rio Tinto (RIO 52.39, +1.17, +2.3%):  to begin underground mining at Kennecott copper operations
  • Splunk (SPLK 80.11, +0.73, +0.9%): CFO has accepted a position at a leading pre-IPO semiconductor company; company also reaffirms Q3 and FY23 guidance

Reviewing overnight developments:

  • Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended Tuesday on a mostly higher note. Japan's Nikkei: +0.5%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng: UNCH, China's Shanghai Composite: +1.4%, India's Sensex: -0.1%, South Korea's Kospi: +0.1%, Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +0.4%.
    • In economic data:
      • China's August Industrial Profit -2.1% YTD (last -1.1%)
      • Japan's August Corporate Services Price Index 1.9% yr/yr (expected 2.4%; last 2.0%)
      • South Korea's September Consumer Confidence 91.4 (last 88.8)
    • In news:
      • The Bank of Japan announced an unscheduled JPY250 bln bond buying operation.
      • South Korea's science ministry reportedly warned that the country's chip industry is being impacted by the current economic environment.
      • World Bank lowered its forecast for 2022 growth in China to 2.8% from 5.2%.
      • New Zealand's finance ministry expects inflation to moderate and begin trending downward this quarter.
  • Major European indices trade on a mostly higher note while the U.K.'s FTSE (-0.1%) holds a modest loss. STOXX Europe 600: +0.7%, Germany's DAX: +0.6%, U.K.'s FTSE 100: -0.1%, France's CAC 40: +0.7%, Italy's FTSE MIB: +0.1%, Spain's IBEX 35: +0.1%.
    • In economic data:
      • Eurozone's August Private Sector Loans 4.5% yr/yr (last 4.5%) and loans to nonfinancials 8.7% yr/yr (last 7.7%)
      • Italy's August non-EU trade deficit EUR5.79 bln (last deficit of EUR2.83 bln)
    • In news:
      • There is a renewed concern about the supply of energy to Europe after it was reported that the Nord Stream pipeline is leaking gas.
      • European Central Bank policymaker Centeno said that inflation will be higher and "less temporary" than he expected a year ago.
      • Germany's ifo Institute noted that sentiment among exporters has fallen to its lowest level since May 2020.

U.S. equity futures:

  • S&P 500 Futures: +55 @ 3,710
  • DJIA Futures: +360 @ 29,621
  • Nasdaq 100 Futures: +194 @ 11,448

Overseas:

  • Europe: DAX +0.6%, FTSE -0.1%, CAC +0.7%
  • Asia: Nikkei +0.5%, Hang Seng UNCH, Shanghai Composite +1.4%

Commodities:

  • Crude Oil +1.17 @ 77.88
  • Nat Gas  +0.063 @ 7.077
  • Gold +14.00 @ 1647.40
  • Silver +0.253  @ 18.733
  • Copper +0.0462 @ 3.3407


U.S. Summary:

  • Earnings/Guidance:
    • Avient (AVNT) adjusts guidance to account for Dyneema acquisition, divestiture of Distribution segment
    • Endava (DAVA) beats by $0.02, beats on revs; guides Q1 EPS below consensus, revs above consensus; guides FY23 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus
    • FleetCor (FLT) reaffirms Q3 guidance
    • Grab (GRAB) targets Group Adjusted EBITDA breakeven by H2 2024 at first Investor Day
    • United Natural Foods (UNFI) beats by $0.01, reports revs in-line; guides FY23 EPS in-line, revs in-line
    • Washington REIT (WRE) reaffirms FY22 outlook; provides FY23 FFO guidance, in-line
  • General News:
    • Senate will hold procedural vote today on bill to fund government through December 16 with energy permitting attached. It is unlikely to pass. Lawmakers will then pass bill to fund government without the energy provisions later this week to avoid government shutdown, according to the New York Times
    • Russia expects to formally annex parts of Ukraine this week, according to the New York Times
    • Hurricane Ian has strengthened to a category 3 hurricane and is expected to make landfall near Tampa, FL later this week; mandatory evacuations declared in several areas of Tampa and Clearwater, FL
    • Nordstrom pipeline damage is "unprecedented" and it can not determine when flows will resume, according to Bloomberg
    • Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester (voting FOMC member) says restrictive policy will be needed and for longer to ensure that inflation expectations do not move up and that inflation moves back down
    • Chicago Fed President Charlie Evans (not a voting FOMC member) says that reducing inflation to a level consistent with the Fed’s 2 percent objective will require a period of restrictive financial conditions
    • Aecom Tech (ACM) awarded a contract by the Greater Orlando Aviation Authority (GOAA) to provide ongoing program and project management services, continuing a decades-long partnership with the Authority
    • AstraZeneca's (AZN) Koselugo receives approval in Japan
    • AstraZeneca (AZN) receives Japanese approval for Tezspire
    • Aura Biosciences (AURA) to Present Ongoing Phase 2 Data Evaluating Suprachoroidal Administration of Belzupacap Sarotalocan (AU-011) for the First-Line Treatment of Patients with Early-Stage Choroidal Melanoma at AAO 2022
    • Avidity Biosciences (RNA) announces FDA partial clinical hold on new participant enrollment in the Phase 1/2 MARINA clinical trial of AOC 1001 in adults with myotonic dystrophy type 1
    • Biogen (BIIB) agrees to pay $900 mln to resolve allegations regarding false claims to Medicare and Medicaid, according to DOJ
    • Eagle Pharma (EGRX) announced that Enalare has secured a contract for up to $50.3 million from the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority
    • Ecolab (ECL) announced that Darrell R. Brown, currently executive vice president and president, Global Industrial, will become president and chief operating officer effective Oct. 1, 2022
    • Emergent BioSolutions (EBS) Completes Acquisition of Exclusive Worldwide Rights to TEMBEXA (brincidofovir), the First FDA-Approved Smallpox Oral Antiviral for All Ages
    • FleetCor (FLT) announces departure of CFO, who is leaving company to join a private equity backed software company; appoints current Chief Accounting Officer as interim CFO
    • Ford Motor (F) asking for new trial following a $1.7 bln jury verdict in a truck rollover lawsuit, according to the Wall Street Journal
    • Geo Group (GEO) comments on favorable ruling by En Banc Panel of U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit Against California’s AB32 law
    • H.B. Fuller (FUL) CEO Jim Owens to retire; COO Celeste Mastin to succeed Jim Owens, effective December 4
    • Hertz Global (HTZ) and BP (BP) collaborate to accelerate EV charging in North America
    • Ingredion (INGR) increases quarterly dividend by 9% to $0.71/share; also authorizes repurchase of up to 6.0 mln shares of company's common stock
    • Merck (MRK) received four new approvals from Japan’s Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare
    • Moderna (MRNA): FDA authorized an additional five batches of its updated COVID booster shots made at a Catalent (CTLT) facility, according to Reuters
    • Molina Healthcare (MOH) selected by Nebraska Department of Health and Human Services to provide health care services to Nebraskans under state's Medicaid managed care program
    • Nautilus (NLS) announces strategic review
    • New Found (NFGC) discovers new high-grade gold zone west of the Appleton Fault intercepting 10.4 g/t Au Over 10.5m & 17.9 g/t Au Over 4.2m at “Keats West”
    • Ocular Therapeutix (OCUL) reports interim 7-month data from U.S. Phase 1 Clinical Trial of OTX-TKI for the Treatment of Wet AMD
    • Rio Tinto (RIO) to begin underground mining at Kennecott copper operations
    • Science Applications (SAIC) awarded $757 mln firm-fixed-price U.S. Army contract
    • Shoe Carnival (SCVL) CFO W. Kerry Jackson to retire, effective May 2023
    • Sonoco (SON) Products subsidiary signs a global lease agreement with United Cargo for the Pegasus ULD temperature-controlled bulk shipping container; financial details not disclosed
    • Southwest Air (LUV) COO Mike Van de Ven to step down at the end of September; CCO Andrew Watterson to be promoted to COO
    • Splunk's (SPLK) CFO has accepted a position at a leading pre-IPO semiconductor company; company also reaffirms Q3 and FY23 guidance
    • Starbucks (SBUX) will begin labor contracts with employees at union stores, according to Reuters
    • Tesla (TSLA) expects high volume of deliveries at end of Q3, according to Electrek
    • Tritium DCFC's (DCFC) fast chargers are available for purchase by government entities through the U.S. General Services Administration’s (GSA) five-year Blanket Purchase Agreement (BPA) dedicated to EV-related equipment
    • TSMC (TSM) expects some clients to scale back orders in 2023, according to Digitimes
    • United Natural Foods (UNFI) enters into commercial agreement with Symbotic (SYM) to implement its robotics and software automation in five of UNFI's distribution centers over the next four years
    • VAALCO Energy (EGY) Announces Successful Drilling of North Tchibala 2H-ST Well and Provides Operational Update on FSO and Field Reconfiguration at Etame
    • Vertex Pharma (VRTX) and CRISPR Therapeutics announce global exa-cel regulatory submissions for sickle cell disease and Beta Thalassemia in 2022
    • Waldencast plc (WALD) names Philippe Gautier CFO and COO
    • Zymeworks (ZYME): Independent Proxy Advisory Firm ISS Recommends a Vote FOR the Zymeworks Redomicile
  • M&A:
    • Altus Power (AMPS) to acquire ~97 megawatts of operating solar assets for ~$220 mln
    • Lakeland Bancorp (LBAI) and Provident Financial Services (PFS) to combine in an all-stock merger, valued at ~$1.3 billion
    • Welsbach Technology Metals Acquisition Corp. (WTMA) announces extension to business combination deadline to and including December 30, 2022
  • Syndicate: 
    • Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS) entered into a partial unwind agreement with a financial institution; entered into exchange agreements with certain holders of the 2025 Notes
  • IPOs:
    • Expected to Price:
      • No IPOs expected.


Gapping Up/Down

  • Gapping up:
    • NLS +7.8%, STNG +4.3%, EGY +4.1%, RWT +3.4%, SCVL +2.7%, UNFI +2.1%, LUV +1.8%, RIO +1.8%, GRAB +1.8%, BIIB +1.5%, SPLK +1.3%, IWM +1.2%, QQQ +1.2%, PTON +1.1%, MRNA +1.1%, SPY +1%, DIA +0.8%
  • Gapping down:
    • OCUL -3.2%, SAIC -0.9%, SYM -0.5%, CTLT -0.5%, EBS -0.5%

Analyst Research (see Upgrades/Downgrades calendar for full list):

  • Upgrades
    • Banco Santander (SAN) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup
    • BRF SA (BRFS) upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JP Morgan
    • Hyatt Hotels (H) upgraded to Outperform from In-line at Evercore ISI; tgt $100
  • Downgrades:
    • CS Disco (LAW) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Loop Capital; tgt lowered to $10
    • Douglas Emmett (DEI) downgraded to In-line from Outperform at Evercore ISI; tgt lowered to $24
  • Others:
    • Arcos Dorados (ARCO) initiated with an Overweight at Barclays; tgt $9
    • EnLink Midstream (ENLC) initiated with a Buy at Stifel; tgt $12.50
    • FirstCash (FCFS) initiated with a Hold at Loop Capital; tgt $80
    • Guild Holdings (GHLD) initiated with a Buy at Jefferies; tgt $15
    • Lucid Group (LCID) initiated with an Overweight at Cantor Fitzgerald; tgt $23

Upcoming Events:

  • Econ Data:
    • 08:30 ET: Durable Orders for Aug (Briefing.com Consensus -0.1%; Prior 0.0%)
    • 08:30 ET: Durable Orders, ex-Transportation for Aug (Briefing.com Consensus 0.3%; Prior 0.3%)
    • 09:00 ET: FHFA Housing Price Index for July (Briefing.com Consensus NA; Prior 0.1%)
    • 09:00 ET: S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index for July (Briefing.com Consensus 17.0%; Prior 18.6%)
    • 10:00 ET: Consumer Confidence for Sep (Briefing.com Consensus 105.0; Prior 103.2)
    • 10:00 ET: New Home Sales for Aug (Briefing.com Consensus 500K; Prior 511K)
  • Earnings
    • Tuesday (Sep 27)
      • Morning: CBRL DAVA JBL NEOG SNX UNFI
      • Afternoon:  BB CALM PRGS
    • Wednesday (Sep 28)
      • Morning:  CTAS CGNT PAYX THO
      • Afternoon:  CNXC EPAC JEF MLKN MTN
    • Thursday (Sep 29)
      • Morning: BBBY KMX RAD WOR
      • Afternoon:  CMTL MU NKE


Known to most as Uranium Pinto Beans, Jason has more than 15 years under his belt of trading stocks, options and currencies. His expertise primarily lies in chart analysis, and he has a strong eye for undervalued stock. Because he’s got the ability to identify great risk/reward trades he usually enjoys taking the path less traveled and reaping the benefits from the adventure.

He is a co-founder of Option Millionaires, and he is best known for his weekly webinars with Scott, as well as his high level training webinars and charts found in the forums.

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