Markets swung between losses and gains before finishing the session lower, with the S&P dropping .72%. Asia markets closed mostly lower while Europe stocks are rallying hard with the DAX up over 5% as I write this. U.S. futures are pointing to a higher open, the Dollar, Oil, and Gold are lower while Yields are higher.
And this is what UPB is reading this morning: Wednesday Reads
It was a roller coaster for markets yesterday with stocks opening lower only to rally solidly into the green efore giving back all the gains into the close. POTUS announced a ban on Russia Oil imports and seemed the market had already priced that in, as Oil gave back its gains and stocks rallied. Then it was back to sell mode into the close as reality sunk in. This morning optimism over a potential peace agreement when talks resume between Russa and Ukraine in Turkey on Thursday has buoyed stocks with Europe indexes soaring and US futures up 2%. The SPY is not near yesterdays highs just yet. That $427 level would be a spot I will be watching today. If it can get over that, a rally into the Friday is likely:
AVAV tried to break thru the $82s yesterday but then found sellers. I didn't want to lose my profits so I locked the rest of my calls in. Think $85-90+ comes soon and will look for some later dated strikes today to play for that move:
FSLR showed some signs of continuation yesterday as higher Oil prices will lead to a faster adoption of resources that are renewable and away from fossil fuels. That $76 handle was solid resistance and once it broke thru, I went and added some calls. I was able to close some out to cover costs with some profit and will likely hold the rest for a move over $86 into Friday:
CVGW broke out of its channel yesterday before finding pressure to close down 2%. After the bell it announced that it was pushing its earnings date back until next week to provide time to finish their report. Hopefully because of all the profit... Will continue to hold my calls into next week:
Other names I am watching today:
CMG for a move back over $1400:
SQ for a move over $110:
And maybe some TRIP later dated strikes for a move back over $28 in the next week or two:
Here are the analyst changes of note for today:
| Benchmark adjusts Seagate forecast after warning on Q3 trending to low end | |
| Benchmark analyst Mark Miller noted that Seagate CEO Dave Mosley indicated at a conference yesterday that he now expects Seagate to come in at the low end of the company's fiscal Q3 guidance, which calls for non-GAAP EPS of $1.80-$2.20 on a sales range of $2.75B-$3.05B, and he is adjusting his own forecast accordingly. Miller, who also noted that Mosley maintained the company's guidance for 3%-6% sales growth in calendar year 2022, has a Buy rating and $112 price target on Seagate shares | |
| Petco removed from 'Tactical Outperform' list at Evercore ISI | |
| Evercore ISI analyst Oliver Wintermantel is closing his "Tactical Outperform" call on Petco after the company beat expectations and gave above consensus guidance for 2022, but he keeps the stock in his "Fab 5" list and reiterates an Outperform rating with a $25 price target. The analyst, who argues that what drove the stock higher was the company's sequential improvement in gross margins and the strong net customer adds, highlights what he sees as three potential positive catalysts over the next few weeks: Petco's first analyst day as a public company on March 23, its appearance at the firm's Summit in Atlanta at the end of this month and at the firm's Pet Supply Symposium on April 5 | |
| MongoDB price target lowered to $362 from $626 at Needham | |
| Needham transferred coverage of MongoDB to analyst Mike Cikos, who lowered the firm's price target to $362 from $626 but keeps a Buy rating on the shares after its Q4 results last night. The analyst remains positive on the company and its strength in Atlas, which reflects innovations in the platform, investments in Sales and Marketing, and its large total addressable market. Cikos adds that MongoDB is also not seeing a slowdown in customer usage during Q1 | |
| Lumentum price target raised to $120 from $110 at Northland | |
| Northland analyst Tim Savageaux raised the firm's price target on Lumentum to $120 from $110 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares after the company hosted an event that offered additional granularity around "one of the main aspects" of the fiscal Q2 report, namely expectations for double digit growth FY23 and beyond. Following the OFC event, he thinks both his FY23 estimates and longer-term growth expectations appear "conservative," said Savageaux | |
| Roth Capital upgrades Hudson Technologies to Buy, raises target to $6.50 | |
| As previously reported, Roth Capital analyst Gerry Sweeney upgraded Hudson Technologies to Buy from Neutral with a price target of $6.50, up from $4. The analyst notes Hudson Technologies reported earnings that exceeded expectations driven by higher refrigerant pricing. Pricing for HFC was up sequentially driven partially by supply chain tightness. However, more importantly, regulatory frameworks and market dynamics have likely created a foundation for increased reclamation of HFC refrigerant and higher overall prices, Sweeney argues. In addition, the company recently entered into new/enhanced credit agreements reducing interest costs, he adds | |
| Bumble's recent pullback offers attractive opportunity, says Jefferies | |
| Jefferies analyst Brent Thill believes investors "will be pleased" with the 27% ex-forex revenue growth reported by Bumble (BMBL) in Q4 given many concerns leading into the report and he calls FY22 Bumble App revenue guidance of 34%-36% growth that was above the Street forecast of 29% "the biggest positive surprise." He believes the recent pullback, with the stock down 52% year-to-date and trading at about a 30% discount to Match Group (MTCH), offers "a more attractive opportunity" and Thill keeps a Buy rating and $36 price target on Bumble shares | |
| XPO Logistics price target raised to $117 from $115 at Cowen | |
| Cowen analyst Jason Seidl raised the firm's price target on XPO Logistics to $117 from $115 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The analyst said he likes the spin-off announcement and sees a core LTL-play offering potential multiple expansion for the company while using the asset sale as a way to quickly reduce debt load | |
And here is what I am watching today: FSLR, AVAV, CMG, MDB, X, AA, SCHN, MOS, NTR, and SQ.
Let's have a GREAT DAY!
-JB