Stocks closed mixed on Monday, with the Nasdaq closing in the green while the S&P finished .24% lower as markets continue to come to grips with the ramifications of the Russia/Ukraine war. Asia markets closed higher overnight while Europe stocks are selling off this morning with the DAX off nearly 3% as I write this. U.S. futures are pointing to a lower open, the Dollar, Gold, and Oil are higher while Yields are plummeting.
And this is what UPB is reading this morning: Tuesday Morning Reads
SQ showed some morning strength - and continuation from Friday - at the open yesterday so I went and added some weekly spec calls for a move over $130. The stock tested $131.95 in the late morning before pulling back. I was able to close some calls to cover costs on the move and then sold the rest for some nice profits when the stock reversed course down to $126. Certainly a name I will be watching as I think a move into the $150s or so is possible in the next week or two, especially if it can hold the 50dma above $130:
I also added some AVAV calls. AVAV is a beaten up name that fell after its recent earnings and updated guidance severely missed estimates due to supply chain delays. Think the recent contracts, the increased defense spending from some countries, along with the publicity of Drones being used in the Russia/Ukraine conflict will bid the stock back over $80. I was able to close some of my calls out for over 100% and will look to take a few more off before they report earnings Thurs after the close:
Lastly, I added some BPT calls as outlined on yesterdays watchlist. Think it can rise irregardless of the market as long as Oil remains elevated... so it offers a great hedge. The stock opened 2022 in the $3s so it is up quite a bit so far and will be volatile. But could go parabolic on a break over $15. Will look to close some of my calls out to cover costs when I get the chance, and ride the rest:
DDD reported a great Q yesterday after the close. Should bode well for SSYS today. Will be watching for a bid over $26 where I may look to add some more calls:
Was watching HSKA for an entry yesterday morning but the spreads were unplayable. The stock actually gave back most of its early gains. Will likely take this off my watchlist for now.
Still eye eying CDLX calls along with possible calls in the ag space... ie. NTR, MOS, CF.
The SPY came up near $440 in the pre-market before falling back to $432. Would be constructive to see it back over the 200dma. Yields are getting destroyed today, likely as folks start reversing bets on Fed rate hikes amidst the geopolitical uncertainty. If this trend continues some of the beaten down tech names may start to squeeze. Something I will be watching for:
Here are the analyst changes of note for today:
| Ambarella price target lowered to $180 from $235 at Cowen | |
| Cowen analyst Matthew Ramsay lowered the firm's price target on Ambarella to $180 from $235 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The analyst said while underlying demand remains solid, management disclosed continued headwinds associated with shortages for ancillary components, kitting issues at other component suppliers, and overall capacity inefficiencies, capping the upside | |
| Foot Locker price target lowered to $42 from $53 at Cowen | |
| Cowen analyst John Kernan lowered the firm's price target on Foot Locker (FL) to $42 from $53 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The analyst said its footwear business and relationship with Nike (NKE) is deteriorating rapidly and Q4 weakness in men's footwear goes beyond supply chain. Kernan notes Foot Locker is now the cheapest stock above $1B market cap in Specialty Retail | |
| Workday price target lowered to $300 from $310 at Cowen | |
| Cowen analyst J. Derrick Wood lowered the firm's price target on Workday to $300 from $310 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The analyst said consistent with his checks, strength was led by outsized large deal activity in the US particularly in FinServ and demand seems to be strengthening. He noted 2023 guidance was raised from 20% to 22% putting them in a growth acceleration framework | |
| SailPoint price target lowered to $45 from $55 at Loop Capital | |
| Loop Capital analyst Yun Kim lowered the firm's price target on SailPoint to $45 from $55 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. The company's Q4 bookings were "strong" with annual recurring revenue growth also accelerating to 48% from 44%, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Kim adds however that while SailPoint could emerge as the next enterprise standard in identity governance management, the path towards that status could be choppy given that the company carries high sales execution risks largely due to its business model being driven by selling large enterprise-wide replacement deals | |
| Xpel price target lowered to $100 from $120 at B. Riley | |
| B. Riley analyst Jeff Van Sinderen lowered the firm's price target on Xpel to $100 from $120 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares post the Q4 results. The company's post-COVID strength continued against headwinds of low new vehicle inventory, Van Sinderen tells investors in a research note. | |
| 3D Systems price target lowered to $22 from $24 at B. Riley | |
| B. Riley analyst Sarkis Sherbetchyan lowered the firm's price target on 3D Systems to $22 from $24 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares following the Q4 results. While the fiscal 2022 sales outlook is favorable compared to estimates into the print and the midpoint of the gross margin guidance in line, the adjusted operating expense guidance is materially higher compared to expectations, as the company invests in its hardware, materials, and software platforms, as well as talent to fuel growth, Sherbetchyan tells investors in a research note | |
| B. Riley downgrades Foot Locker on 'transition phase' away from Nike | |
| B. Riley analyst Susan Anderson downgraded Foot Locker (FL) to Neutral from Buy with a price target of $34, down from $64. The company's fiscal 2022 guidance was meaningfully below the Street and pointed towards difficult comps due to lapping stimulus in addition to continued supply challenges and entering a period where it diversifies away from Nike (NKE), Anderson tells investors in a research note. The analyst believes Foot Locker will be in a "transition phase" for at least a year as its exposure to Nike is lowered, which creates "limited visibility on future sales/margins | |
And here is what I am watching today: CDLX, SQ, NTR, MOS, CF, SSYS, BPT, and beaten down tech names.
Let's have a great day!
-JB