Futures are pointing to a slightly lower open as I write this, with S&P futures down .10%. Asia marked closed in the red overnight while Europe indexes are mixed this morning. The US dollar and Yields are lower while Oil and Gold are higher.
Welcome to the last trading week of the 1st half of 2023. Here is the current market performance:
Friday night and into Saturday the fear mongers were out all over fintwit and on financial publications warning of a market melt-down or even limit down futures on Monday. Instead markets are doing what thay have done for most of this year, shake possible negative catalysts off. It is not a big week in regards to data with a few earnings reports from names like NKE, MU, and STZ. And then we get the PCE Friday, the last batch of inflation data. The S&P has closed lower in 4 of the past 5 session, so a little concerning, but think if we can hold the $430 handle this week, can chalk it up to some consolidation after the move from $410 in late May:
I added some Z calls on Friday. Housing starts soared in May and new homes sales finally showed signs of growth. The market is forward looking so think Z will race higher in anticipation of more positive housing data in the coming months. I will be looking to add some further out strikes today and think mid-$50s comes soon:
https://www.zillow.com/research/may-2023-existing-home-sales-32807/
I also added some inexpensive Sept DUST calls. Think the backdrop right now is bearish for Gold with inflation waning, signs of a potential 'soft landing' after the Fed hikes, and last weeks rise in Bitcoin. If $1910 fails to hold this week, think $1840 is possible:
TRIP failed to hold the 50dma on Friday, trading off 3% and giving back some of Thursdays gains. Still setting up nice for a move over $18 in the next week or two if it can break that 50dma again at $16.68:
VKTX and TERN were under pressure again on Friday, with TERN selling off over 7% despite recent positive analyst commentary and potential positive catalysts on the horizon. The coverage on obesity drugs only intensifies with another piece from the WSJ this morning:
Will be looking to add more TERN strikes today:
IBM made an acquisition this morning, buying Apptio, a IT software company. IBM has fallen for 5 straight sessions and broke under its 200dma on Friday. The stock is gapping lower this morning and think could provide a nice bounce play. May look at some calls to play for a bounce into the $135 area this week:
FVRR and YEXT have been disappointing there past two weeks. Will likely sit on my hands until those start showing signs of bottoming.
And this is what I am watching today: IBM, TERN, CMG, Z, SPOT, ULTA, BIDU, VKTX, ISRG, ROKU, MDGL, DPZ, YEXT, SAM, AMD, LRCX, MU, NFLX, QQQ, ZYME, AXSM, SAGE, RARE, SRPT, BLK, EXAS, and W.
Let's have a great day!
-JB