Stocks closed lower on Wednesday, reversing afternoon highs to close slightly in the red. The S&P ended the day down .13% while the Nasdaq closed off .15%. Asia markets closed mixed overnight while Europe indexes are fighting off early morning weakness. U.S. futures are pointing to a higher open, the Dollar is in the green while Oil, Yields, and Gold are all lower.
And this is what UPB is reading this morning: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/morning-reads-47/
And a nice read from UPB: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/morning-perspective-fighting-fire-with-gasoline/
And here is my pre-market rant from yesterday : https://www.optionmillionaires.com/jb-pre-market-rant-june-22nd-2022/
My apologies for the watchlist yesterday. I had finished it up by 8:55am or so, tried to publish, and somehow it vanished. I will try to get on audio again this morning at 9:15 am or so, and try to do that going forward.
Markets reversed a large gap down yesterday, turned green into the afternoon, before selling off into the close to finish slightly in the red. I hate to use the term 'signs of a bottom', but yesterday seemed to flash it... albeit maybe a short term bottom. Tech and junk names rallied and some held most their gains into the close. Today could go a long way in terms of seeing if the bottom can hold and we can find a decent bounce into the $380s on the SPY in the coming days. That $370 is a level I will be watching on weakness:
I closed more of my ROKU calls for 300% and then closed the rest of the position near the end of the day for over 100%. I also went and added some July 8th strikes. Wood, the CEO of ROKU, was on CNBC yesterday morning and I got the feeling there is some meat to this NFLX rumor. Watch his smirk when he gets asked about it if you get a chance:
I didn't want to lose profits so I closed my closer dated calls to remove some risk and added some later dated strikes as a possible catalyst play. The stock found resistance at the 50dma. If it can get thru that and hold today think it heads into the $100s in the coming days and higher in the coming weeks:
Also, NFLX is talking to companies for partnerships in their AD rollout. Google and Comcast are listed in this WSJ article but have to think ROKU would provide the easiest entry: https://www.wsj.com/articles/netflix-confirms-partnership-talks-for-ad-supported-service-11655985113?mod=tech_lead_pos1
NTR closed flat yesterday. Still like it for a move into the $90s and beyond in the coming days:
After a monster session on Tuesday, BPT went back into sell mode as Oil prices fell. Still holding my July strikes:
Biotechs were at it again, closing up nicely and for the 3rd time out of the past 4 sessions and 5 of the past 6. Still holding my ZYME(will need help there) and still eyeing SAGE for some July or later dated calls:
SAGE:
And lastly, still have my eye on U and SPOT as potential bounce plays:
SPOT:
Here are the analyst changes of note for today:
| Winnebago price target lowered to $67 from $79 at MKM Partners |
| MKM Partners analyst Scott Stember lowered the firm's price target on Winnebago to $67 from $79 but keeps a Buy rating on the shares after its Q3 earnings beat. The analyst assigns a lower earnings multiple of 7-times, down from 8-times, to reflect for the recent broad market contractions. Stember adds however that while the management has reflected on more RVers taking "staycations" due to elevated fuel costs, at retail level, virtually all of Winnebago's brands are currently trending firmly above that of 2019, also noting that average selling prices were up 39% and 17% for towables and motorhomes respectively |
| eBay assumed with an Underweight at Morgan Stanley |
| Morgan Stanley analyst Lauren Schenk assumed coverage of eBay with an Underweight rating and Street-low $36 price target. Schenk sees continued share losses driving below consensus top-line results and margin pressure, the analyst tells investors in a research note. She estimates that eBay lost more than 500 bps of market share in 2021, which is expected to continue as new entrants continue to take share. |
| Nike price target lowered to $133 from $139 at Cowen |
| Cowen analyst John Kernan lowered the firm's price target on Nike to $133 from $139 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The analyst previewed its Q4 results and noted there are market concerns that Nike might issue initial FY23 guidance well below sell side estimates but believes any weakness will create a buying opportunity based on valuation |
| TripAdvisor price target lowered to $44 from $57 at Truist |
| Truist analyst Naved Khan lowered the firm's price target on TripAdvisor to $44 from $57 but keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The stock is "significantly undervalued" as his modeling suggests that its Vator business alone is worth about $18 per share given the market fragmentation and its estimated total addressable market, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Khan adds that Viator's take-rates are above other lodging-focused OTA's and should support free cash flow margin of over 25% over the long term |
Nike price target lowered to $152 from $175 at Deutsche Bank |
| Deutsche Bank analyst Gabriella Carbone lowered the firm's price target on Nike to $152 from $175 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Carbone anticipates Nike's Q4 EPS to miss consensus, largely driven by soft results in China, and is now modeling revenues for China of $1.74B, below the Street's $1.82B estimate, the analyst tells investors. However, she thinks trends in North America and EMEA have the potential to offset some of the weakness in China and has taken up her forecasts for both regions ahead of the company's upcoming quarterly report |
And here is what I am watching today: ROKU, U, SPOT, NTR, IBM, SAGE, LOVE, HSKA, TRIP, and W.
Let's have a great day!
-JB