Futures are pointing to a higher start to this holiday shortened trading week with the S&P set to open 1.6% higher as I write this. Asia markets closed up overnight while Europe indexes are also in the green this morning. The US dollar and Gold are in the red while Oil and Yields are higher.
And this is what UPB is reading this morning: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/morning-reads-45/
Last week was the worst for Markets since Mach of 2020. The past 8 market sessions have seen the S&P and Nasdaq lose over 10%:
This morning we are getting a relief bounce of sorts. If you were watching Fintwit over the weekend, you would have thought markets would open up limit down today as Crypto was getting pummeled. Sure enough, Crypto found some bids yesterday and Bitcoin is back over $20k. Crypto seems to be a nice gauge for risk right now... crypto up = risk on, crypto down = risk off. Certainly something I will continue to watch, but will not get caught up in the fear mongering. On Wednesday and Thursday Powell will testify in front of Congress Committees in his semi-annual update... prepared remarks will likely be out before the open Wesneday. Always a good comedic relief moment to watch as you see politicians try to make themselves look relevant.. Likely the statement on Wednesday will be the only potential market moving moment.
That $365 handle on the SPY looks like key support/resistance if we head back there in the next day or two. Have a feeling markets find a bid this week and retest $380 first:
Nice chart here from BofA on Fed tightening. You can see a correlation between the hikes and market performance:
NTR struggled on Friday but is looking to reverse those losses in the pre-market. Still like this one for a move over $100 in the coming weeks:
The last of my freebie SAGE calls expired on Friday. Of course the stock staged its best session in weeks. I may look to add some July or later dated strikes as I think it is only a matter of time before BIIB buys them out:
It was a rough week for O&G names and it pulled down BPT. Not adding anything to my July strikes but may look to add some later dated calls here for the eventual move over $30:
Still holding my freebie IBM July calls. the stock will need to start working its way back into the mid-$140s in the comings days:
Still eyeing LOVE here for a move into the mid-high $30s:
OPRX is back on watch after bottoming at the start of May:
And KRNT is back now watch after getting absolutely pummeled:
Still like U, ROKU, and SPOT as potential weekly lotto call plays as well.
Here are the analyst changes of note for today:
| Accommodation data has favorable read through for Booking, says Gordon Haskett |
| Gordon Haskett analyst Robert Mollins keeps a Buy rating on Booking Holdings (BKNG) shares with a $2,474 price target following a deep dive into a collection of global accommodation data that he sees having a "favorable read through" for Booking. European hotel demand is meaningfully improving quarter-over-quarter and surpassing the U.S. recovery level in May, said Mollins, who adds that he sees the data pointing to inline Q2 key performance indicators at Airbnb (ABNB). Mollins maintains a Hold rating and $106 price target on Airbnb shares |
Constellation Brands price target lowered to $270 from $285 at UBS |
| UBS analyst Peter Grom lowered the firm's price target on Constellation Brands to $270 from $285 but keeps a Buy rating on the shares as part of a broader research note on U.S. beverages. The analyst believes that the group will still deliver sustainable organic revenue outperformance over the longer-term, but also sees a normalization on the horizon as reopening catalysts dissipate |
| Boston Beer downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS |
| UBS analyst Peter Grom downgraded Boston Beer to Neutral from Buy with a price target of $328, down from $600, as part of a broader research note on U.S. beverages. The analyst believes that the group will still deliver sustainable organic revenue outperformance over the longer-term, but also sees a normalization on the horizon as reopening catalysts dissipate. Grom adds that he sees a more moderate growth rate for the company |
| Odds of Acadia's Nuplazid approval for ADP in August 'very slim,' says Canaccord |
| Canaccord analyst Sumant Kulkarni notes that the FDA held an Advisory Committee, or AdCom, meeting on Acadia Pharmaceuticals' supplemental new drug application for Nuplazid in Alzheimer's disease psychosis, or ADP, and voted 9-3 that the evidence presented so far does not support a conclusion that Nuplazid is an effective treatment for ADP, arguing that the lack of an "unequivocally positive" trial hurt Nuplazid "badly" and overruled any points in favor of Nuplazid. Kulkarni now believes the chances of Nuplazid being approved for ADP on or around its action date of August 4 are "very slim," but is not changing the model at this time in order to "take a more considered view following a potentially knee-jerk reaction." Kulkarni, who would "not be surprised by a very weak open for the stock followed by some potential for stabilization," keeps a Buy rating and $31 price target on Acadia shares |
| Micron price target lowered to $56 from $83 at Morgan Stanley |
| Morgan Stanley analyst Joseph Moore lowered the firm's price target on Micron to $56 from $83 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. While already being "well below consensus," he cut his estimates for Micron last week and is now about 25% below consensus on calendar year 2023 revenue and about 46% below consensus on 2023 non-GAAP EPS, noted Moore ahead of the company's quarterly report due after market close on Thursday, June 30. He notes that consensus is looking for $9.46B in revenue for the August quarter, which would be up from $8.7B in the May quarter, though it seems to him "highly unlikely" that Micron can guide for higher than low single-digit sequential growth in August given the recent moves in DRAM and NAND prices. He is also lowering his price target multiple to reflect current macroeconomic expectations, Moore noted |
Amedisys price target lowered to $175 from $210 at Deutsche Bank |
| Deutsche Bank analyst Justin Bowers lowered the firm's price target on Amedisys to $175 from $210 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The analyst decreased estimates and expects the stock to open under pressure following the 2023 home health rate update proposed rule from Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. The proposed rule is "ominous as expected and also fires a warning shot" for $2B in prior period reconciliations, Bowers tells investors in a research note. The probability of payment cuts in 2023 is now increased and absent any relief, home health agency consolidation / contraction is likely to accelerate meaningfully with labor and input costs running well above the proposed and prior year market basket updates, contends Bowers |
And here is what I am watching today: SAGE,LOVE, OPRX, KRNT, ROKU, SPOT, U, and BPT.
Let's have a great day!
-JB