Markets closed higher again on Tuesday, with the S&P adding .28% while the Dow squeezed out a gain and made it 12 straight days of green. Asia markets closed mixed overnight while Europe indexes are in the red this morning. U.S. futures are pointing to a lower open, the Dollar and Gold are higher while Yields and Oil are lower.
It was another strong session as stocks shook off a morning dip to rally to highs into the afternoon, and were able to hold the gains into the close. Today is a big day, with the Fed decisions at 2pm, Powell presser at 2:30, and then earnings from META, CMG, and 160 other companies after the close. The market is pricing in a 98.9% probability of a .25% rate hike today and a 50% probability of no more hikes this year. Powells spin at the presser will be very important. I am hoping he can get a little more dovish, which I think would bode well for a $460 test on the SPY by Friday. Earnings came out for Google and Microsoft after the close yesterday. Google posted a great quarter while Microsoft beat on EPS but missed on revenues. There were high expectations for Microsoft so the stock is getting hit a bit in the pre-market. Would want to see that $453 area hold today on weakness, and that $450 handle hold if there is any surprise from the Fed:
I added WW calls yesterday as outlined on the watchlist:
Call me crazy, but I think WW can start to work its way back up to fill the gap near $29 in the coming months:
If you don't know the story much, here is a great read on the new CEO... well not new, she has been there since the 2022, but she is finally getting press:
Hate making comparisons, but I am going to do it. The new WW CEO is like Ryan Cohen taking a stake in GME where he is now executive chairman. Ryan was taking an antiquated business and trying to bring it to the future. The same can be said for the new CEO of WW who is trying to take an old business and bring it to the future to be competitive. I'll be on audio at 11am or so to talk about it and will try and get a post up:
After the close Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to Outperform and raised their PT to $13 from $5 - $MS must read my watchlist. I may actually look to add more calls today while also looking to lock some of the Sept calls in to cover costs if they get over 100%:
SPOT was absolutely punished yesterday, falling over 14%, after the company posted a wider than expected loss. I was actually looking to buy some calls for a bounce but passed. I think the companies plan to grow and worry about profits later will eventually pay off and was shown in their huge subscriber adds. This morning the stock is receiving some upgrades. I may look to add some calls for a bounce back over $155 into Friday:
A boring session for TNDM and FVRR, with both closing flat. FVRR needs to hold that 50dma at $27.83 on weakness:
And that $35 handle continues to be resistance for TNDM, once that breaks, $40s should come:
Another green session for CVGW. Still looking to close some of my calls to cover costs. Think $40+ comes before weeks end:
I was watching SPOT at the open and missed SHW's move over $280. I almost pulled the trigger on $300 calls but passed. May revisit here today as I think yesterdays earnings from SHW puts it on a crash course with $300:
Still eyeing CMG, they report tonight but calls remain pricey. No sense to play if the risk/reward is not there. I do think they will post a strong quarter and the stock will rally, but calls $350 out of the money with 2 days left till expiry are $3.50. Will wait until tomorrow to possibly trade.
And still eyeing ALGN and INMD.
And this is what I am watching today: WW, SHW, SPOT, BIDU, ALGN, CMG, ISRG, YOU, FVRR, ANET, ULTA, SSYS, ROKU, TREE, BLK, TNDM, Z, ANET, IBM, NFLX, QQQ, AXSM, and SAGE.
Let's have a great day!