Stocks closed higher last week, with the S&P adding .65% while the Dow soared over 2% and enters today with a 10 session winning streak. Asia markets closed lower overnight while Europe indexes are in the red this morning. U.S. futures are pointing to a slightly higher open, the Dollar and Yields are lower while Oil and Gold are higher.
And this is what UPB is reading this morning: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/morning-reads-290/
It is a huge week for markets - you hear that often but it really is this week. We have a slew of earnings to include MSFT, GOOGL, META, and others. We have the Fed Meeting and rate decision on Wednesday. We get the first read on 2Q GDP Thursday. And then we get the last piece of inflation data with the PCE on Friday. If earnings are mostly inline with no crazy surprises, the Fed raises rates .25% with a dovish spin, and PCE comes inline or cooler than expected, think markets can hold the line in the $450s and possibly look to test the $460 handle by Friday. Of course hotter PCE, any surprises by the Fed, or big misses by MSFT, GOOGL, or META and things could get dicey.
Thursday and Fridays chop sessions provided a bit of consolidation and the upper Bollinger Band is now at $457.70. That $451.40-$452 area provided support, so would want to see that hold today on weakness(which usually happens right after the open):
It is a big week for earnings as the season picks up, here are some implied moves:
There are a few names that catch my eye and I may look for some spec calls to play into their reports:
INMD is a name I have traded in the past. They raised guidance on the 12th and will report earnings on the 27th. The stock gapped higher after its raise but has since traded somewhat flat, forming a potential bull-flag. There is an 8.67% implied move, think any more positive updates when they report and the stock trades into the mid-$50s. May look to add some calls today for premium build with the plan to lock some in to cover costs before they report Thursday morning:
SPOT reports earnings tomorrow before the open. It sports a 10.6% implied move. They announced they are raising prices today and think that means the company is going to beat their sub add estimates. Options are pricey but do think this can finally trade back over $200 on a strong report and raised guidance:
And lastly, ALGN is always a name I watch during earnings seasons for its history of producing some large/outsized moves. It traded down to $337s last week after just trading in the $360s. Think an opportunity to play some calls into their report Wednesday after the close:
I added some August TNDM calls on Friday which encompass their earnings on August 3rd. The stock was already trading higher and then went to rally even more after I added the calls. I used the move to lock some of the calls in for over 100% to cover costs and will now ride most/all into earnings. Think TNDM will trade north of $40 soon:
Another boring chop day for FVRR on Friday. It will need to find some footing here soon and hold $27.82 if there is any weakness. They report earnings August 3rd as well so would want to be able to take some of my calls off to cover costs before then:
ISRG gapped lower on Friday despite a great earnings report. I used the dip to add some weekly spec calls for a bounce and was able to close some out for 100%. The stock is receiving more positive analyst commentary this morning. Would not be surprised to see it rally this week into the $360+ area. May add some calls today on strength:
TRIP has also been chopping around the last week or two. They report earnings August 2nd. Think $20+ soon:
Would love to try and trade CMG into their report on Wednesday but the premiums are insane. Weekly calls $400 out of the money are trading at $4. Not the type of risk/reward I like. Will be watching today and tomorrow though to see if these premiums start to drop. CMG has churned in a tight range since its earnings run, and think another beat and raise could send it to $2400+ :
And this is what I am watching today: ALGN, SPOT, INMD, ISRG, YOU, FVRR, ANET, CMG, ULTA, SSYS, ROKU, TREE, BLK, TNDM, YOU, Z, FVRR, GLL, GLD, ISRG, BJ, ALGN, ANET, IBM, NFLX, QQQ, AXSM, and SAGE.
Let's have a great day!
-JB