Markets fell on Tuesday, with the S&P closing down 1.15% as WMT's guidance cut weighed and gave folks an excuse to take profits. Asia markets closed mostly lower overnight while Europe indexes are in the green this morning. U.S. futures are pointing to a higher open, the Dollar is lower while Oil, Yields, and Gold are all higher.
And here is my rant from yesterday if you missed it: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/jb-afternoon-rant-july-26th-2022/
And this is what UPB is reading this morning: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/morning-reads-66/
It is going to be a big day for the markets. After the close yesterday were GOOGL and MSFT earnings. Both were better than feared and have buoyed the stock futures. Later today we get the Fed decision and then META earnings after the close. The goldilocks scenario for the Fed today will be a .75% hike and hints at possibly holding off on another hike in September. I think anything outside of that will bring some selling pressure. A nice chart from Marketwatch on the last 3 post Fed moves. Who knows if we get dejavu here but the trend has been dip then rip:
AAPL and AMZN report tomorrow after the close, so if those names can also post some decent reports that are deemed better than feared, I think markets can find some support and the SPY will see $400+:
CI closed higher for the 3rd session in a row, testing the $275s before closing at $274.83. Don't want to see a premium crush on the rest of my calls so will be watching closely. If it fails to break and hold $275 in the morning I may look to take the rest of my calls out and revisit:
It was a rough day for ROKU yesterday day, closing under $80. This morning it is gapping higher on the MSFT and GOOGL reports. SPOT also reported a decent quarter with strong guidance. Think that all bodes well here for ROKU. Not going to add anything, but still think it can post some solid numbers after the close Thursday and rally:
AMLX posted a strong session yesterday despite the market weakness - likely due to BIIB's priority review grant for their ALS drug. Would love to see some continuation today and a move over $25... and of course, want to see those premiums start coming back into the calls:
As discussed on my rant yesterday, also watching BIIB for some possible speculative calls on their FDA priority review news. Maybe $220+:
I was watching SPOT for a possible earnings play but passed. The stock is gapping over $110 in the pre-market. Not going to chase at the open but do think this can trade north of $120 this week, so will be watching for some possible speculative calls:
Was also looking to add some CMG calls into its report but the premiums were insane. Calls $200 out of the money that expired Friday were over $ - not my type of risk/reward. Sure enough the company reported a decent quarter that was better than feared. It is trading at $1420 as I write this. Maybe a move to $1450-1470 today and tomorrow so will be watching for opportunities:
If there is any crazy downside reaction to the Fed today, I will likely look at a few TZA calls as a hedge.
Here are the analyst changes of note for today:
Paramount price target lowered to $28 from $36 at Evercore ISI |
| Evercore ISI analyst Vijay Jayant lowered the firm's price target on Paramount (PARA) to $28 from $36 and keeps an In Line rating on the shares as he takes "a first cut" at updating his estimates for a macroeconomic slowdown. In legacy media. Jayant said he continues to favor Disney and Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD), citing the former's "credible streaming strategy" and the latter's "synergized growth story." He calls out Paramount and Fox Corp. (FOXA) as the companies he covers with estimates that are most sensitive to changes in advertising revenue and the pace of Pay TV industry subscriber declines |
Enphase Energy price target raised to $275 from $255 at Needham |
| Needham analyst Vikram Bagri raised the firm's price target on Enphase Energy to $275 from $255 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The company's Q2 revenue beat was driven by higher than expected inverter shipments, its component availability has improved, and shipping rates are cooling off, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Longer term, Bagri notes that Enphase Energy has emerged as one of the more dynamic clean energy stories over the past two years while its current management team has directed an "impressive turnaround |
| Disney price target lowered to $130 from $150 at Evercore ISI |
| Evercore ISI analyst Vijay Jayant lowered the firm's price target on Disney (DIS) to $130 from $150 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares as he takes "a first cut at updating our estimates for a macroeconomic slowdown." In legacy media. Jayant said he continues to favor Disney and Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD), citing the former's "credible streaming strategy" and the latter's "synergized growth story." In his broader media coverage, he favors Liberty Formula One (FWONA) and Endeavor Group (EDR) in the current economic environment given that more than 80% of their EBITDA is contractual, the analyst added |
Fox Corp. price target lowered to $38 from $44 at Evercore ISI |
| Evercore ISI analyst Vijay Jayant lowered the firm's price target on Fox Corp. (FOXA) to $38 from $44 and keeps an In Line rating on the shares as he takes "a first cut" at updating his estimates for a macroeconomic slowdown. In legacy media. Jayant said he continues to favor Disney (DIS) and Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD), citing the former's "credible streaming strategy" and the latter's "synergized growth story." He calls out Paramount (PARA) and Fox as the companies he covers with estimates that are most sensitive to changes in advertising revenue and the pace of Pay TV industry subscriber declines |
| Enphase Energy price target raised to $275 from $255 at Needham |
| Needham analyst Vikram Bagri raised the firm's price target on Enphase Energy to $275 from $255 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The company's Q2 revenue beat was driven by higher than expected inverter shipments, its component availability has improved, and shipping rates are cooling off, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Longer term, Bagri notes that Enphase Energy has emerged as one of the more dynamic clean energy stories over the past two years while its current management team has directed an "impressive turnaround" |
| Lyft price target lowered to $17 from $32 at MKM Partners |
| MKM Partners analyst Rohit Kulkarni lowered the firm's price target on Lyft (LYFT) to $17 from $32 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares as part of a broader research note on ridesharing names. The group has underperformed based on investors concerns around demand outlook amid rising inflation, supply trends given the high oil prices, and profitability potential beyond reopening tailwinds, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Kulkarni adds that he prefers Uber (UBER) over both medium-term and long-term given its leadership and scale, but at current levels, Lyft shares could see more relief over the near-term as the stock has already fallen 70% year-to-date |
| Roku price target lowered to $150 from $240 at Benchmark |
| Benchmark analyst Daniel Kurnos lowered the firm's price target on Roku to $150 from $240 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares ahead of the company reporting Q2 results tomorrow after the close. The "general consensus at this point is that 2022 revenue guidance needs to come down," but too much of a revenue guide reduction, assuming there is one, would likely stoke fears that Roku is potentially losing share in an ecosystem that is about to feature more major AVOD or AVOD hybrid competitors, Kurnos tells investors. While he is adopting a more conservative stance with regards to 2023 and is now expecting modest growth in his base case, Kurnos adds that "none of our channel checks suggest a social media-like precipice for CTV |
| General Motors price target lowered to $60 from $75 at Benchmark |
| Benchmark analyst Michael Ward lowered the firm's price target on General Motors to $60 from $75 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares following the company's Q2 report. He has reduced his 2023 earnings estimate to reflect higher interest costs at GM Financial and cut his target multiple to the low end of his range, Ward tells investors |
And here is what I am watching today: CMG, BIIB, ROKU, SPOT, CUTR, TWLO, DUST, JDST, GLL, SAGE, VRTX, and TZA.
Let's have a great day!
-JB