Markets closed mostly lower on Thursday, with the S&P falling .47% while the Nasdaq dropped over 2%. On the flip side, the Dow closed up .47% and in the green for the 9th session in a row. Asia markets closed mostly lower overnight while Europe indexes are mixed this morning. U.S. futures are pointing to a higher open, the Dollar and Oil are higher while Yields and Gold are lower.
It was another frustrating premium crush session on Thursday, with most stocks melting lower for throughout the day, although the Dow was able to close higher with IBM, JNJ, and others helping. Have to think more consolidation may be coming after this 10% rally on the SPY since June. Next week could go along way in deciding how the rest of the summer trading goes. Earnings seasons starts to pick up with MSFT, GOOGL, and META set to report. We also have the Fed meeting, with an expected .25% rate hike coming on Wednesday. If the SPY can chop here and hold $450, maybe $460 test can come sometime next week. If not, I fear $440 and below... so certainly not going to be overly aggressive right now - and thankfully have not been very aggressive this week. Some other things I am watching is the IWM and then the big cap names like GOOGL, MSFT, AMZN, and AAPL. When things started going south at the end of 2021, it was small-cap names getting pummeled while the indexes looked great because the large-cap stocks were performing well. Maybe we get the reverse here. Time will tell:
I did make one trade yesterday, adding some SMCI lotto calls near the end of the day. The stock has been on an absolute tear in 2023, rallying from $100 to over $300 in less than 2 months. Yesterday morning they updated their guidance and it was a monster raise. Despite the huge numbers, folks sold the news. The stock then embarked on an all-day reversal into the green despite the Nasdaq selling off over 2%. Think $325+ possible today. It is gapping this morning as expected on an analyst upgrade. Will look to close some calls out to cover costs at the open and ride the rest:
FVRR gave back almost all of its weekly gains yesterday, it is now up .27% for the week. Earnings are on the 3rd, so will likely just continue to hold my August strikes until then unless they can get back near 100%, where I will take some off to cover costs. The story has not changed, just seemed all the buyers in some of the names that had rallied the past few days were at the 'beach'. Should be back over $30 today:
Will be also looking to add some August strikes on TNDM for their earnings on August 3rd as well:
ANET reports Monday after the close and received an upgrade this morning - never makes sense to me why analysts upgrade a stock a session before a company is expected to report material data. May nibble some lotto calls today for a move over $175 and/or some lotto calls into next week. Think $185+ soon:
YOU has been absolutely pummeled the past 5 sessions - boggles my mind. I may look to add further out strikes if it finds a floor today:
May look at some intra-day lottos today in SPOT, ISRG, NFLX, and TSLA.
And this is what I am watching today: YOU, FVRR, ANET, CMG, ULTA, SSYS, ROKU, TREE, BLK, SPOT, TNDM, YOU, Z, FVRR, GLL, GLD, ISRG, BJ, ALGN, ANET, IBM, DPZ, YEXT, AMD, LRCX, MU, NFLX, QQQ, AXSM, and SAGE.
Let's have a great day!
-JB