Stock futures have been moving higher after yesterdays close. It was a negative day for the markets with the Dow off .8% Nasdaq -.55% and S&P500 down .71%.
(This is UPB - JB will be in and out most of today's session)
This morning stock futures are up .5%. It looks like another one day Trade War event. The good news, is that China only brings in so much into the U.S., Trump is actually running out of good to put tariffs on. The bad news is China is working on different ways to retaliate.
My thoughts the cliff notes version? This latest trade war nonsense is just a negotiating ploy and down the road all these big numbers and tariffs will be a lot smaller than the headlines suggest. Clearly the market is getting tired of these headlines, just as we are.
The stock market is about as big a proxy on the President as you can get. Trump loves tweeting about just how high the stock market has gone, and as such I'm not sure he will let it fall too far with the continued drama.
Stock futures are already nearing a recovery off all those losses from the latest Trade War Escalation.
Just like last weeks pre-jobs report Thursday paint, we got another paint yesterday after the close.
Earnings season is about to begin. The banks kick it off tomorrow, the financial ETF is at a key support/resistance area, with tomorrows price reaction likely to dictate financials and possibly the market into the heart of the summer.
With this weekly threat of an afterhours tweet or headline to wreck well constructed long positions I continue to trade options with longer dated expirations.
Despite $GME recent decline off highs, I still think its setting up for a move to $18 or better before the fall.
$VSI had a nice day yesterday. Big money is betting on a recovery. New investors have been buying up positions in the stock and have amassed an almost 35% stake in the company. One of the investors just bought out $RCII for a 50% premium. Not saying that is what is going to happen here. But clearly this is another name like $RCII, heavily shorted and beaten down and has the potential for a strong rally.
$OLED was a disappointing session yesterday. Possible tariffs on t.v. components I imagine is mostly to blame. $AAPL making a foldable phone would be bullish for $OLED. I think the long term outlook for OLED is strong. The stock got way ahead of itself earlier this year. I do think its found a bottom, it would be nice to see it recover yesterdays losses and then some today.
Overall the market is setting up for that big 2800 test with the S&P500. Its been resistance all year long, as such a break and hold above it would be very bullish for the short to medium term.
Here is some of todays analyst action:
- $FDX -- FedEx pullback brings 'compelling' entry point, says Citi Citi analyst Christian Wetherbee believes the recent pullback in shares of FedEx on trade concerns creates a "compelling" entry point. The analyst left meetings with management feeling that recent trade concerns have overly impacted FedEx's multiple, "particularly as business appears to be running at/ahead of plan." He believes the stock is "too cheap" and keeps a Buy rating on the name
- $TWTR ---Twitter price target raised to $55 from $40 at Goldman Sachs Goldman Sachs analyst Heath Terry raised his price target on Twitter to $55 and kept his Buy rating, saying that despite the run-up in the stock price year-to-date, consensus expectation on the company continue to underestimate its drive to increase and better monetize user engagement. Terry further notes that the company is also showing significant operating expense leverage, while adding that advertiser checks and 3rd party traffic data checks do not suggest that Twitter's information quality initiative of recent days had much impact on engagement and will actually be "net positive". The analyst contends that despite trading at a higher valuation on enterprise value to expected FY19 EBITDA, its growth rate justifies the premium
- $SWKS ----Skyworks to deliver 'stable, in-line' Q3 results, says Loop Capital Loop Capital analyst Cody Acree kept his Buy rating and $130 price target on Skyworks ahead of its Q3 earnings next week, saying that with much of the industry's excess smartphone inventory cleared, the company is positioned to "deliver stable in-line Q3 results". The analyst also cites the benefits of stronger Skyworkds' Broad Markets boosted by WiFi, automotive, and Internet of Things industry demand. Acree further anticipates "at least modest upside" in its Q4 guidance to reflect the seasonal build cycle at Apple and its new low-band PAD win
- $ADBE --- Adobe shares can hit $320 over next 18 months, says UBS. UBS analyst Jennifer Swanson Lowe sees potential for Adobe (ADBE) to achieve $10 of earnings per share in fiscal 2020, above the current consensus of $9.33, and for the stock to reach $320 over the next 18 months, or 30% upside from current levels. The stock has lagged the broader peer group since the company's Q2 results as investors worry about reduced potential for further beats as the Cloud shift matures, Lowe tells investors in a research note. She keeps a Buy rating on Adobe with a $289 price target. Microsoft (MSFT) and Salesforce (CRM) remain the analyst's top picks due to the combination of "secular growth and valuation support," but she likes Adobe as well for similar reasons.
- $JNJ -- :
Some stocks I'm watching today:
$FSLR - I still like the set-up for a possible move to $60 over the coming weeks
$ULTA - Could be a nice late week lotto for a move back to $260 resistance
$OSTK has found its footing in the mid-$30s - I like the set-up for a possible move higher into the fall.