Happy New YEAR! Futures are pointing to a green start to 2023, with the S&P set to open .42% higher as I write this. Asia markets finished in the green overnight while Europe indexes are rallying this morning. The US dollar and Gold are higher while Yields and Oil are lower.
And this is what UPB is reading this morning: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/morning-reads-170/
If you missed it, here is my Top 5 stocks for 2023 Webinar: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/top-5-stocks-for-2023-webinar/
I will also be putting together a webinar to discuss 10 or so of my favorite Bio names in 2023, as I think this will be a big year for that sector. Hoping to have it out by next weekend.
Markets are looking to start 2023 on a positive note after the worst market performance since 2008, here are the final numbers:
Not many called last years move outside of the perma-bears who have been calling market tumbles since 2010 and only need the markets to drop another 80% from here just to be back to flat from their original bearish calls. Many of the big banks forecasts for this year is bearish... where were they last year? Outside of any black swan event, like an escalation of the war in Ukraine, think markets can at least find some footing in the first few weeks of January. Earnings season kicks off at the end of next week. We also get the December CPI read next Thursday morning. The CPI will be closely watched and will likely cause some wild swings Thursday. Would want to see the SPY work its way up the $380 and aim for a possible retest and break of the 200dma in the next week or so:
I added more TNDM calls on Friday, as the stock broke back over its 50dma and looks primed for a gap fill back into the $50s. I was actually going to put TNDM as one of my Top 5 stocks for 2023, but its a name I have traded for years so not really undiscovered. Will look to close some of my calls to cover costs on the way up and hold the rest for that possible $50+ move:
SQ received an upgrade this morning and is gapping higher. My calls will likely be up over 100%, so will look to close some out to cover costs and hold the rest. SQ has yet to report its earnings date but would think it would report around the first week of February. May look at some other strikes to play for premium build into Feb:
GNRC is gapping higher this morning and nearing that 50dma resistance it found on Thursday. Once that $102 breaks, $108+ will come quick. Will continue to hold my January calls and may look for some other later dated strikes today:
VKTX traded in a wide range on Friday. testing the $8.80s before bouncing to $9.40 into the close. Only a matter of time before this is $10 but wold not be surprised to see some consolidation soon. Will use that as an opportunity to add later dated strikes:
Here are the analyst changes of note for today:
| esla price target lowered to $299 from $348 at Truist |
| Truist analyst William Stein lowered the firm's price target on Tesla to $299 from $348 but keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The company's Q4 deliveries were about 5% below consensus and the near-term pricing / demand trends are now worse than they were a few months ago, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Stein is also cutting his FY23 EPS view on Tesla to $6.05 from $6.92, though he continues to expect the company to grow units at a "rapid pace", reaching 10M by 2030 |
| Thermo Fisher price target lowered to $505 from $525 at Wells Fargo |
| Wells Fargo analyst Timothy Daley lowered the firm's price target on Thermo Fisher to $505 from $525 and keeps an Underweight rating on the shares. The analyst notes that in late 2021, the company upgraded its long-term growth guidance framework by +200bps to 7%-9% and while technically a multi-year average, the market still views this as a hard "bracketed" range and has set 7%-9% as the bogey for 2023. Given his incrementally bearish view on key growth drivers for 2023, Daley sees this as a very aggressive hurdle under the backdrop of Thermo Fisher's history of consistently setting initial annual guidance with ample headroom for beat/raise progression through the year. His view is the JPMorgan conference will be the capitulation point where management will have to finally talk down these unrealistic expectations |
Wells Fargo upgrades Wynn Resorts to Overweight, raises price target to $101 |
| As previously reported, Wells Fargo analyst Daniel Politzer upgraded Wynn Resorts to Overweight from Equal Weight with a price target of $101, up from $74. The analyst argues that Wynn has a viable path to recapturing most/all of its 2019 VIP EBITDA, despite the absence of junkets, through direct VIP/premium mass play, which he believes is not reflected in the stock. Politzer also notes that Wynn is highly levered to Macau's GGR recovery, now more palpable post China's policy pivot, and representing the best growth opportunity in Gaming. Further, he cites Wynn's smaller scale and premium mass offering that should allow for a speedy recovery, reasonable reopening expectations, and undemanding valuation. The analyst includes Wynn on his firm's Tactical Ideas list for Q1 2023, as he believes company-specific catalysts should drive stock outperformance during the quarte |
| Truist upgrades PayPal to Buy, sees investors as 'too negative' |
| Truist analyst Andrew Jeffrey upgraded PayPal to Buy from Hold with a price target of $95, up from $75. The analyst contends that investors have been "too negative" on the stock given the company's "durable" long-term organic revenue growth. Jeffrey adds that PayPal's first-mover advantage, 400 million users, and superior merchant value proposition position the company to keep pace with the market despite some branded share loss. The analyst also notes that his upgrade reflects his view that consensus revenue estimates are now "reasonable |
| Nordstrom facing pressure from rising costs, reduced demand, says Argus |
| Argus analyst Kristina Ruggeri keeps her Hold rating on Nordstrom given the company's "challenging outlook". Nordstrom is facing pressure from rising costs, reduced demand for its products, and excess inventory, though the company has strong brand recognition and is benefiting from online partnerships, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Ruggeri is also raising her FY23 EPS view on the stock by 4c to $2.32 |
| Research raises 'valid questions' about Amgen's Repatha, says Barclays |
| After research published in BMJ questioned "inconsistencies" between the information in the Clinical Study Report and that in the 2017 primary trial results publication for the FOURIER trial of evolocumab, Barclays analyst Carter Gould said he suspects this recent publication "will be the first many have heard of these arguments," which in his view "raise a number of valid questions." The analyst, who sees this analysis representing "an unwelcome new narrative around a core franchise," thinks this could drive increased uncertainty around longer-term Repatha estimates, he tells investors. Gould keeps an Underweight rating and $234 price target on Amgen shares |
| BioXcel Therapeutics price target lowered to $73 from $85 at H.C. Wainwright |
| H.C. Wainwright analyst Raghuram Selvaraju lowered the firm's price target on BioXcel Therapeutics to $73 from $85 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The analyst reduced Igalmi revenue projections to reflect a more gradual sales ramp trajectory |
And here its what I am watching today: GNRC, VKTX, AXSM, UDMY, MASI, SPOT, SQ, RARE, SAGE, ALGN, IBM, CMG, ROKU, NFLX, PTON, BYND, and BLK.
Let's have a great day!
-JB