Markets fell on Monday, erasing some of last weeks gains, with the S&P closing down 1.30%. Asia markets closed lower overnight while Europe indexes are following suit with the DAX off .35% as I write this. U.S. futures are pointing to a lower open, the Dollar is higher while Yields, Oil, and Gold are all lower.
And this is what UPB is reading this morning: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/morning-reads-189/
Stocks fell on Monday, seeming to melt all session long on no true catalyst to speak of. It is going to be a big week in regards to earnings and the Fed, so some will say folks are taking profits ahead of that news after a great start to 2023. Tomorrow will be a big day, with a slew of mega-cap earnings and the Fed statement and presser at 2pm and 2:30 pm. Would expect some volatility at 2pm and then some moves in the after-hours session. The SPY held the $400 handle yesterday and has reclaimed it again this morning. Would want to see that hold and still think a move to $410 and beyond is coming soon:
An eye-opening stat from the WSJ this morning:
In the S&P 500, 48 of last year’s 50 worst-performing stocks are up this year, notching an average gain of 17% through January, according to Dow Jones Market Data. In comparison, 30 of last year’s 50 best-performing S&P 500 stocks are up, posting an average advance of less than 1%.
Typically folks look to put money in some names that have needlessly been beaten down in the previous year. Will be interesting to see if this pattern holds into February.
Speaking of beaten down names, I added some speculative calls in PTON yesterday. They report earnings tomorrow morning. If they beat and raise or give any positive outlook, think the stock can rally into the high teens into the end of the week(and possibly higher):
SPOT is up nearly 10% in the pre-market despite some mixed numbers. Another name that likely points to a strong Q for ROKU... or at least a better than feared Q4. May look to add more strikes on ROKU today to play in sympathy to the SPOT earnings. ROKU hasn't reported their earnings date yet but it's likely to be in the middle of February. May look at some lotto SPOT calls as well to play for a move to $120+:
ROKU:
SPOT:
AXSM opened higher yesterday and actually held its gains, a rarity. The stock closed up 4% and looks poised to test and break $75 today. They also announced their earnings date which will be on February 27th. Still eyeing some March strikes to play for the eventual break above $80:
VRTX held up quite well on Monday despite the market weakness. Still like this one for $330+ in the coming days:
It was a rough day for U, CDLX, and RBLX. If they can find some bids today I may actually look at some later dated strikes.
AI closed off 8% yesterday. Despite the drop it still looks interesting here. Still holding some March freebie calls and may look at some later strikes if it drops more. Looks like this is headed to $20+ in the coming weeks(if not sooner):
And lastly, still watching YEXT as another AI play. If this gets any attention it will be $10+ in short order:
Here are the analyst changes of note for today:
FibroGen (FGEN) upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at William Blair Inter & Co
(INTR) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman; tgt lowered to $4.20 LyondellBasell
(LYB) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Atlantic Equities; tgt $110 New Fortress Energy
(NFE) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BTIG Research; tgt $50 Societe Television Francaise 1
(TVFCF) upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Barclays WPP plc
(WPP) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays
Bank of America (BAC) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Atlantic Equities; tgt $40
Eastern Bankshares (EBC) downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JP Morgan; tgt lowered to $15
Invitae (NVTA) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman; tgt $2
Nu Skin (NUS) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies; tgt lowered to $39
Q2 Holdings (QTWO) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Robert W. Baird; tgt $32
And this is what I am watching: PTON, VRTX, U, AI, RBLX, ROKU, YEXT, GILD, CDLX, AXSM, SAM, IBM, SQ, ZYME, ICPT, SPOT, U, MASI, ROKU, NFLX, ALGN, GNRC, VKTX, UDMY, RARE, SAGE, and CMG.
Let's have a great day!
-JB